Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[2hats]

Sequencing right now is running at 25% of all (recorded) cases. At the time of the appearance of these particular cases it was just under 20%; the rate is going up because positive test numbers have been dropping. So one wouldn't be surprised if there are another 20+ cases out there (though of course, recorded cases < actual cases).

Quelle surprise.

Covid: Four more cases of Brazil variant found in England

Three cases of the P.1 variant are in South Gloucestershire and the fourth is in Bradford, West Yorkshire.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[iona]

I have a box of home tests that I'm supposed to give myself weekly as I work in a school.

I have to do twice weekly tests and I'm only at college one morning a week

 

[hash tag]

Mrs tag and I have a soft spot for the Cartoon Museum and were concerned for its future, then we learn this ‘Ray of light’ Cartoon Museum employee, 39, dies with Covid

Rip Alison

 

[elbows]

As elbows said above, yes the lateral flow tests are now included in the total figure, hence that figure hitting over 1.5m yesterday, over double the capacity for daily PCR tests, and I can't see how we will be able to work out what percentage of new cases over the coming weeks is down to increased testing.

There are a few things we can do. We can pay attention to the weekly surveillance reports where all sorts of data is presented in terms of percentage positives, a form of data which helps compensate for variations in amount of testing. We can pay attention to ZOE Covid data. We can pay attention to the population survey forms of testing which provides a delayed but useful sense of the picture which is not goig to be buffeted around by changes to test availability and peoples willingness to get tested etc etc.

And there are also some things people interested in the daily dashboard data can do. The inclusion of lateral flow tests only applies to England. Drill down to England in the dashboard and additional forms of data are available. Including results by type of test for England, although aspects of this are currently confusing to me in terms of how they change the data from unconfirmed to confirmed. I've only just looked at this particular section so I havent given it much thought yet, but for example this is the sort of data and explanation available:

 

[Sunray]

16 weeks and it will be everyone over 18. Most of the at-risk groups will have had at least one before the end of April, just 8 weeks....

8 Weeks.....

 

[Pickman's model]

16 weeks and it will be everyone over 18. Most of the at-risk groups will have had at least one before the end of April, just 8 weeks....

8 Weeks.....

You'll miss it when it's gone

 

[purenarcotic]

I have a box of home tests that I'm supposed to give myself weekly as I work in a school. Would it not have been cheaper just to vaccinate teachers?

We don’t yet fully know whether the vaccine prevents transmission. It seems to prevent it a bit, but not totally. So yes, you should have been vaccinated but you should test too.

 

[elbows]

There are a few things we can do. We can pay attention to the weekly surveillance reports where all sorts of data is presented in terms of percentage positives, a form of data which helps compensate for variations in amount of testing.

Just one example of a useful chart in the weekly surveillance report:


From https://assets.publishing.service.g...968513/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w10.pdf

 

[Pickman's model]

Just one example of a useful chart in the weekly surveillance report:

View attachment 258333
From https://assets.publishing.service.g...968513/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w10.pdf

It would be a better chart with a different choice if colours

 

[elbows]

It would be a better chart with a different choice if colours

A lot of their charts are ugly and hard to discerne detail from. If we end up at a point where a clearer view of the data is required because a situation is developing, I will try to make my own out of their underlying data.

 

[elbows]

Please note that I am not a parent and I dont have lawyer friends.

'Pointy-elbow' parents emailing teachers to boost exam grades

Head teachers warn of pushy parents lobbying for higher GCSE and A-level grades in cancelled exams.

www.bbc.co.uk

Richard Sheriff, president of the ASCL heads' union, warned of parents with "pointy elbows and lawyer friends".

He suggested it was particularly schools in affluent areas where parents would try to sway teachers.

Mr Sheriff said it "really worries me" that this pressure could widen the social divide in exam results.

Geoff Barton, the heads' union's general secretary, gave an example of a teacher who had been emailed by parents over the high grades needed for their daughter's ambition to become a doctor.

"We have to protect individual teachers," said Mr Barton.

 

[Pickman's model]

Please note that I am not a parent and I dont have lawyer friends.

'Pointy-elbow' parents emailing teachers to boost exam grades

Head teachers warn of pushy parents lobbying for higher GCSE and A-level grades in cancelled exams.

www.bbc.co.uk

Both those things can, with some effort on your part, be remedied

 

[elbows]

Both those things can, with some effort on your part, be remedied

Both seem incompatible with the pointy nature of my elbows, or at least the direction I seem to have pointed them in for as long as I can remember. It is unlikely I will be helping the birthrate to recover from this pandemic.

 

[Sunray]

I see there have been some blood clotting events with the AstraZeneca vaccine. 30 in 5 million doses. Most of Europe has stopped using it.
What’s strange, there have been over 1100 deaths after using the Pfizer vaccine, Europe correctly did nothing. Not sure why such a knee jerk reaction on the AZ vaccine. Are they determined to devalue it?

 

[kabbes]

I see there have been some blood clotting events with the AstraZeneca vaccine. 30 in 5 million doses. Most of Europe has stopped using it.
What’s strange, there have been over 1100 deaths after using the Pfizer vaccine, Europe correctly did nothing. Not sure why such a knee jerk reaction on the AZ vaccine. Are they determined to devalue it?

I wonder what the control rate of blood clots would be. 5 in 30 million sounds, if anything, like fewer than I might expect.

 

[2hats]

I wonder what the control rate of blood clots would be. 5 in 30 million sounds, if anything, like fewer than I might expect.

Much lower. Annual incidence rate is typically 1 per 1000. The reported AZD1222 thromboembolic event rate is 22 in 3 million vaccinees. The key is that a significant number of them are associated with one particular batch.

 

[maomao]

Blood clotting story is being reported round the world though. My FiL rang my wife from China to check which vaccine she'd had (yes it was AZ).

 

[William of Walworth]

But 22 people in 3 million Oxford/AZ vaccines!!! FFS!!!

One or two have probably been run over by a bus the same day after being vaccinated with it .... so let's make sure to BAN! it for bus-danger ....

 

[Sir Belchalot]

Seeing as not many Europeans are keen on getting the AZ one anyway, they might be suspending use of it as a way of reassuring people that it's o.k. to use after they've investigated the blood clotting.

 

[kabbes]

This has all the hallmarks of the beginning of a classic deviancy amplification spiral, only applied to something medical rather than behaviour.

 

[William of Walworth]

Seeing as not many Europeans are keen on getting the AZ one anyway, they might be suspending use of it as a way of reassuring people that it's o.k. to use after they've investigated the blood clotting.

Which might? be sensible vigilance just on its own, if it wasn't also for all the associated distortions in the media ....

 

[Numbers]

Probably a stupid question, but in the unlikely event of clotting how long it would it take to be an issue for a person?

 

[xenon]

I wonder what the control rate of blood clots would be. 5 in 30 million sounds, if anything, like fewer than I might expect.

IT may well be. He said 30 in 5 million.

 

[gentlegreen]

Note to self, don't eat my usual 1.5 kilos of cruciferous veggies the week before my next shot

 

[Cid]

From what I can see a whole 3 European(ish) countries have stopped using it (Denmark, Norway, Iceland), while Italy, Austria, Estonia, Luxembourg, Lithuania, Latvia have stopped the specific batch. The EMA is saying it’s fine to keep using it.

So not exactly ‘most of Europe’.

 

[LDC]

Probably a stupid question, but in the unlikely event of clotting how long it would it take to be an issue for a person?

You mean since having the jab? No idea, would have to look at the people that have had the VTE issues with this batch and work it out. Personally I expect it'll be either dismissed as incidental.

Some views here expert reaction to reports that Denmark has paused vaccination with the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine as a precaution after some reports of blood clots | Science Media Centre

 

[William of Walworth]

From what I can see a whole 3 European(ish) countries have stopped using it (Denmark, Norway, Iceland), while Italy, Austria, Estonia, Luxembourg, Lithuania, Latvia have stopped the specific batch. The EMA is saying it’s fine to keep using it.

So not exactly ‘most of Europe’.

I'd missed the 'bloodclotting' story compeletely before getting on here.
So you highlight well the disadvantages of just getting the news from Urban** .... and not checking the links either

(**as well as just from the BBC or The Guardian ).

 

[Mation]

I have a box of home tests that I'm supposed to give myself weekly as I work in a school. Would it not have been cheaper just to vaccinate teachers?

Lateral flow or PCR?

 

[maomao]

Lateral flow or PCR?

Dunno. The ones that come with a little bottle and a test card that you have to do yourself. Haven't done one yet.

 

[nagapie]

Lateral flow or PCR?

Schools have been given lateral flow.