Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

On this day a year ago we were treated to one of the terrible press conferences where their doomed strategy was laid out. A strategy that was dead by the following weekend.

I spent too long ranting about this period in the months that followed to do a full review a year later, but I will do brief ones on key days.

Paraphrased quotes from the March 9th 2020 press conference, where the podiums were close together and the press were present in the flesh, included:

"push the peak into summer"

"not just what you do, but when you do it"

"fatigue risk if we go too early"

"dont do things with no sound medical reason, or counterproductive things"

"mass gatherings dont make much difference"

"increase slowly but then really quite fast, have to catch it before the upswing begins"

"act too early, no effect, eg self-isolation with sniffles is too early. Thats why we look different to other countries, different stages or different characteristics"

"regarding other countries measures: be in no doubt we are considering all of them in due time, they may become necessary, but timing is crucial"

"do stuff based on where we are with the epidemic, not reaction mode"

"cannot suppress it completely, shouldnt try to or it will pop up again later in the year when the NHS is vulnerable in winter"

 

[existentialist]

On this day a year ago we were treated to one of the terrible press conferences where their doomed strategy was laid out. A strategy that was dead by the following weekend.

I spent too long ranting about this period in the months that followed to do a full review a year later, but I will do brief ones on key days.

Paraphrased quotes from the March 9th 2020 press conference, where the podiums were close together and the press were present in the flesh, included:

"push the peak into summer"

"not just what you do, but when you do it"

"fatigue risk if we go too early"

"dont do things with no sound medical reason, or counterproductive things"

"mass gatherings dont make much difference"

"increase slowly but then really quite fast, have to catch it before the upswing begins"

"act too early, no effect, eg self-isolation with sniffles is too early. Thats why we look different to other countries, different stages or different characteristics"

"regarding other countries measures: be in no doubt we are considering all of them in due time, they may become necessary, but timing is crucial"

"do stuff based on where we are with the epidemic, not reaction mode"

"cannot suppress it completely, shouldnt try to or it will pop up again later in the year when the NHS is vulnerable in winter"

I did wonder if an "on this day in 2020" Covid thread might be a useful addition...

 

[elbows]

I did wonder if an "on this day in 2020" Covid thread might be a useful addition...

I thought about it but there are only going to be a couple of further occasions which I will mark in this way, and I'm trying to minimise the amount of time I spend on this. So I decided against it otherwise I will feel the temptation to make it comprehensive and I just dont have it in me to do that.

 

[souljacker]

I did wonder if an "on this day in 2020" Covid thread might be a useful addition...

There is a twitter feed I follow called @YearCovid that tweets last years news that does this. Todays tweet was:

 

[weepiper]

Some minor but personally significant (it means group cycling is back) lockdown easing announced for Scotland today.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Today - (usual low numbers, due to the weekend)

Vaccinations - 1st dose 22,377,255 & 2nd dose 1,142,643.

New cases - 4,712, down -26.2% in the last week, and down 743 on last Monday's 5,455, bringing the 7-day average down to 5,889.

New deaths - 65, down -34.5% in the last week, and down 39 on last Monday's 104, bringing the 7-day average down to 206.

Today, good to see the 7-day average for deaths finally drop below 200.

Vaccinations - 1st dose 22,592,528 & 2nd dose 1,181,431.

New cases - 5,766, down -24.5% in the last week, and down 625 on last Tuesday's 6.391, bringing the 7-day average down to 5,800.

New deaths - 231, down -33.2% in the last week, and down 112 on last Tuesday's 343, bringing the 7-day average down to 190.

 

[Teaboy]

Is it me or we not really seeing that massive glut of vaccinations yet that was being touted for March?

 

[cupid_stunt]

Is it me or we not really seeing that massive glut of vaccinations yet that was being touted for March?

They said 'during March', reported data is only up to the 8th, my SiL has been told to expect available jabbing shifts at her vaccination centre to start increasing from about now, and be doubled before the month ends.

 

[LDC]

Is it me or we not really seeing that massive glut of vaccinations yet that was being touted for March?

It's coming, supplies of AZ are good, and more Pfizer is coming soon.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

It's coming, supplies of AZ are good, and more Pfizer is coming soon.

Wasn't the Moderna one slated for March as well? Haven't heard much about that recently but presumably they will be available at some point.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Wasn't the Moderna one slated for March as well? Haven't heard much about that recently but presumably they will be available at some point.

All the reports I've seen about the Moderna one, mentions 'in the spring', which could be from March, but equally could be April or even May.

 

[Sunray]

Wasn't the Moderna one slated for March as well? Haven't heard much about that recently but presumably they will be available at some point.

I was looking for delivery dates but couldn't find any. I believe they have redacted when they are being delivered for what I can only assume is security reasons.

The last time dates were available we were expecting the Moderna at the beginning of April. Was it 15 Million we ordered? Those are super expensive too $38 each. Maybe the delivery has been brought forward? Number and dates are all shrouded in mystery now.

 

[two sheds]

aaaaargh

Vitamin D supplements may offer no Covid benefits, data suggests

Two studies fail to find evidence to support claims supplements protect against coronavirus

www.theguardian.com

 

[wemakeyousoundb]

Today, good to see the 7-day average for deaths finally drop below 200.
...

the "terrible" daily death figure SAGE was worried about back in september ☹

aaaaargh

Vitamin D supplements may offer no Covid benefits, data suggests

Two studies fail to find evidence to support claims supplements protect against coronavirus

www.theguardian.com

they still have other positive effects though

 

[Sunray]

the "terrible" daily death figure SAGE was worried about back in september ☹
they still have other positive effects though

Multiple sclerosis is more prevalent the further north you live? If you live in more tropical areas, where you get more sun, you are less likely to get MS.

 

[Badgers]

The three local Lateral Flow testing centres have had one single person turn up to be tested today. They only opened at 8am but as a guide they were testing approx 2000 people per day a month ago. The largest football period had been 8-9am

Hopefully that means the virus is over

 

[Mation]

aaaaargh

Vitamin D supplements may offer no Covid benefits, data suggests

Two studies fail to find evidence to support claims supplements protect against coronavirus

www.theguardian.com

'Analyses were restricted to people of European descent wherever possible.' That's the database mining study. I didn't look at the other one.

They do this so not have confounding factors such as different effects for people with darker skin compared to lighter skin. But I do wish they wouldn't have these headlines that imply the study applies to everyone.

There's no evidence that vitamin D helps with covid outcomes in white people, and we don't know at all about people of colour, as no one has studied it. (I don't think.)

 

[kabbes]

Multiple sclerosis is more prevalent the further north you live? If you live in more tropical areas, where you get more sun, you are less likely to get MS.

View attachment 258064

A piece of correlation that in itself means little. For example, northern countries are richer and more likely to be able to diagnose MS. There are good reasons to think that vitamin D intake is related to MS prevalence but a context-free correlation study is not it.

 

[2hats]

Should point out that vitamin D has long been known to play a significant role in T cell activity, which in turn has bearing on outcomes of moderate to severe COVID-19.
DOI: 10.1038/ni.1851.

 

[teuchter]

Some odd choices in the banding of numbers in that MS chart too.

 

[existentialist]

I'm operating on the premise that 25 micrograms of D3 isn't going to do me any harm, so if there is a potential benefit, I might as well go for it. Same basis on which I'll have the vaccine.

 

[Doodler]

I'm operating on the premise that 25 micrograms of D3 isn't going to do me any harm, so if there is a potential benefit, I might as well go for it. Same basis on which I'll have the vaccine.

Yes, if you hadn't been taking any supplements and then became badly ill with Covid you might be kicking yourself for lack of foresight.

 

[Mation]

Should point out that vitamin D has long been known to play a significant role in T cell activity, which in turn has bearing on outcomes of moderate to severe COVID-19.
DOI: 10.1038/ni.1851.

Yes, I should have said no evidence found in that specific study.

 

[Supine]

I'm working on the assumption that a lack of evidence doesn't indicate a lack of affect.

What is known is vit D helps the immune response and people in northern climates don't get enough sun. So I've been taking it for the last year

 

[two sheds]

And as has been said you need high doses to cause damage:

Risks of too much vitamin D: Complications and dosage

Taking too much vitamin D can lead to negative side effects, including brittle bones and dehydration. Learn more here.

www.medicalnewstoday.com

But they can cause problems for some medical conditions.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Below are the only areas currently seeing increases in cases, based on the government dashboard figures & up to 5th March.

Thankfully they are all fairly low numbers, and could just be a blip, like we had in Worthing a 2-3 weeks ago, that had us increasing 63% at point, which soon dropped off and is down -57% in the last 7 days, and we are now back below the national average again.

 

[zahir]

 

[crossthebreeze]

The three local Lateral Flow testing centres have had one single person turn up to be tested today. They only opened at 8am but as a guide they were testing approx 2000 people per day a month ago. The largest football period had been 8-9am

Hopefully that means the virus is over

Well household/bubble members of kids/ workers in schools and colleges can pick up or be sent lateral flow tests for home, a much greater number of larger workplaces have them now, so numbers at actual testing centres might be down even if more people are testing. Are they for keyworkers and other people who can't work from home or for the wider community?

I've been using a keyworker (actually open to anyone who can't work from home) testing centre, and it's generally incredibly quiet except 8-9am when there's a queue mostly of men in high viz. They've only been open to non-council employees for a few weeks, and from conversations I've had with colleagues, neighbours,and friends on facebook - none of whom are covid deniers or anything - take-up must be quite low.

 

[StoneRoad]

I haven't seen the gazebo / transit (minibus) that comprised our local "testing centre" for some (three ?) weeks.

 

[Teaboy]

I haven't seen the gazebo / transit (minibus) that comprised our local "testing centre" for some (three ?) weeks.

Splits its time between this and being a fish & chips van?