Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
Like any good inquiry its going to take a decade or more and half the people in charge will have "forgotten" the details by the time it shows up.
Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
- Start date
Like any good inquiry its going to take a decade or more and half the people in charge will have "forgotten" the details by the time it shows up.
teuchter
je suis teuchter
Why on earth would you think that?
It's already been pointed out on a number of occasions that the 7 day average of reported deaths tends to be a early sign of what the 7 day average of deaths by actual date will look like, the curves tends to be very similiar, and the former continues to go up.
I have no idea why this hasn't sunk in, perhaps you are just in denial, because that would involve accepting you were wrong.
So, let's take hospital admissions as a gauge instead, deaths after admission tends to average around the 2 week mark, admissions on the 1st Jan. were 3,359 and peaked almost 2 weeks later on 12th Jan. at 4,550, over 35% more, and continued to be up on 1st Jan. every day since, or at least up to the latest date available, 15th Jan.
Why do you think these increased hospital admissions will not result in higher deaths over the next week or two?
Looking at the first wave - deaths peaked on the 8th April, about a week after admissions peaked on the 1st April.
The first hump of the second wave - deaths peaked 18th Nov, admissions 11th Nov.
So about a week between them.
Second wave first hump peak cases reported - 9th Nov. So only 9 days ahead of peak deaths
We don't really know if/when admissions have peaked for this current wave. Looks to me they might just have reached some sort of plateau around the 6th Jan but that might change with further info.
Meanwhile peak cases reported was around 29th Dec.
It's not a matter of the things you have "pointed out to me" not having "sunk in". I disagree with the reliance on the 7 day average.
Not all deaths occur in hospital.
A peak in deaths around the 14th Jan is, as I said, optimistic, but I don't feel it's implausible given the info we have right now. That could all change tomorrow.
Let's see what happens.
Cloo
Banana for scale
I'm a bit saddened by how many people I speak to think everything is going to be fine by about Easter because of the vaccine - 'Oh hospital admissions will be right down, we'll be able to meet up again'.... what with evidence suggesting 1st vaccination alone might not do much (perhaps especially for the oldies) I can't see widespread normal indoor gathering being a thing any time soon. I hate to be a sourpuss but I think there's a lack of understanding of how cautious we need to continue to be for some time and why.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Agree about approximate timing gaps seen previously between peak admissions and peak deaths.
Disagree with choice of 6th Jan for admissions this time. Plateaus do complicate the timing but in that circumstance I certainly wouldnt just choose the earliest peak date when the daily admissions figure was actually higher for Jan 12th. So for all I know the day with most deaths could turn out to be today, January 19th.
I suppose my main concern is not the precice date or amount, but the number of days that a figure of over 1000 could occur. It wont be surprising if the peak isnt as brief as last time, and then the totals really start to mount.
Thats certainly one of the reasons I dont want to make the full set of assumptions about peak level and timing. Not with so much grim care home data at the moment, and this is data which mostly comes in much later so I dont feel like I have a view of that in the most recent period at all yet.
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cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
The NHS must have been happy with such an arrangement when they settled on using that site, there must still be some sort of benefit in using the racecourse rather than another site, such as the leisure centre.
Miss-Shelf
I'll meet you further on up the road
wasn't sure where to post this - can delete and move if there's a better suggestion
elbows
Well-Known Member
I wont be surprised if there are stories soon of Pfizer deliveries not matching the original schedule. Beause there were stories like this one some days ago, which were notable for the ridiculous way they simply failed to mention UK supply and just went on about certain EU countries, even though I believe our Pfizer vaccines come from the same Belgian manufacturing facility.
Coronavirus: EU anger over delayed Pfizer vaccine deliveries
Many EU countries are receiving significantly fewer doses due to a change in manufacturing processes.
www.bbc.co.uk
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
I wont be surprised if there are stories soon of Pfizer deliveries not matching the original schedule. Beause there were stories like this one some days ago, which were notable for the ridiculous way they simply failed to mention UK supply and just went on about certain EU countries, even though I believe our Pfizer vaccines come from the same Belgian manufacturing facility.
Coronavirus: EU anger over delayed Pfizer vaccine deliveries
Many EU countries are receiving significantly fewer doses due to a change in manufacturing processes.www.bbc.co.uk
They do mention the UK later in the article.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Viewing vaccines as a silver bullet is asking for all sorts of trouble.
Maybe humanity will get away with it, or maybe 'escape mutant' will become the phrase of 2021.
The moral aspect is also starting to do my head in, and the lack of discussion of it. If I, as as 45 year old with no known health risk factors apart from a smoking history and being a bit overweight, end up being offered the vaccine before those in the high risk groups in other countries, I might have to refuse on principal.
tony.c
Well-Known Member
Nine Met police officers fined £200 for eating in cafe.
Lockdown: Police officers fined £200 for cafe meeting
Nine Met Police officers who broke lockdown rules have been asked to "reflect on their choices".
www.bbc.co.uk
MickiQ
In My Defence I was left Unsupervised
Not totally unreasonable you can give vaccinations at the leisure centre but you can't race horses there.
two sheds
Least noticed poster 2007
unless you add a second line?
Supine
Newt Member
They already have 5. Adding new lines takes months or normally years. Upgrading existing is almost certainly the most efficient way to quickly ramp production.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
Admirable perhaps, but pretty vacuous.
You turning down the jab with your name on it isn't going to see that jab put on a plane and flown to Albania or whatever, it's simply going to go in the arm of a 43yo, living half a mile from you, who's a bit less overweight and who smoked for a shorter time before giving up.
elbows
Well-Known Member
The sentiment is not designed to make a direct difference, its just one way to frame a particular aspect of vaccine global morality issues from a personal perspective.
Supine
Newt Member
Just to add the current bottleneck may not even be in the production line. It could even be in something like the factory cold store capacity. No idea tbh as the company press release didn't specify what the upgrade is for.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
We can expect another week or two of high deaths rates, before they start dropping, which makes sense as the peak in new cases was only around 10 days ago.
elbows
Well-Known Member
By test specimen date it was more like 20 days ago, but the overall ffigure doesnt capture the detail in terms of vulnerability and age, so I prefer to use hospital admissions rather than positive case numbers as a guide.
This is their previous article about what Andrew Hayward said. But I think they botched the text so its better to listen to the audio (in a video that isnt really a video) instead.
Daily UK coronavirus deaths will not fall for weeks yet, Sage professor says
‘We have one of the worst coronavirus problems in the world,' Andrew Hayward laments
www.independent.co.uk
I say they botched it because of this quote:
I think they missed something equivalent to 'take time to' or 'take weeks to' before the word lessen.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Meanwhile in Wales:
Senedd alcohol row: PM 'expects above and beyond' on Covid
Downing Street comments come after senior Welsh Tories others seen drinking on Senedd premises.
www.bbc.co.uk
elbows
Well-Known Member
The inevitable consequence of MHRA not approving of the use of lateral flow tests to check close contacts in schools is emerging:
However I note that the BBC say nothing of the MHRA stuff and instead just refer to 'some scientists'.
edit - I will stick this in the schools thread too.
Rollout of daily testing of close contacts paused in English schools
More work is needed to understand its benefits in schools in England given the new variant, health officials say.
www.bbc.co.uk
However I note that the BBC say nothing of the MHRA stuff and instead just refer to 'some scientists'.
edit - I will stick this in the schools thread too.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
I thought they were leaving it to the NHS to run the vaccination programme, the lying bastards. 
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Today's reported figures.
New cases - 38,905.
New deaths - 1,820, up from 1,564 last Wednesday, adding almost 37 to the 7 day average figure, taking it from 1,181 a day yesterday to 1,218 today.
New cases - 38,905.
New deaths - 1,820, up from 1,564 last Wednesday, adding almost 37 to the 7 day average figure, taking it from 1,181 a day yesterday to 1,218 today.
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
Yup. I don't know why, but I'm much more shocked by this than the high recent ones. Fucking catastrophic.
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