Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
Theres an unofficial site that guesses your number somewhere about.
Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
- Start date
Theres an unofficial site that guesses your number somewhere about.
And it's not fully (or in some cases at all!) reliable, either.
As I remember from testing that site during a previous discussion on some other thread.
circleline
Well-Known Member
Oh, I see. Sister's a bit of a hypochondriac anyway, so didn't really take much notice..
Sunray
Its sunny somewhere.
This is tough watching
Chaos in hospitals.
Chaos in hospitals.
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
could be a practice that has some spare at the end of the day and administers a second dose to someone rather than put it in the bin?
There have been informal things like this happening anyway, someone at the gf’s work got a jab because a relative was a GP and they had some spare at the end of a day that they’d otherwise have to throw out so gave her a call to pop in.
Some people aren’t turning up for appointments so they occasionally have surplus, my GP was asking healthcare workers who could pop in at short notice to give them their details so they could have a jab if someone didn’t turn up. Good policy really, shouldn’t be wasting this stuff.
Mation
real life adventure worth more than pieces of gold
Surplus absolutely shouldn't go to waste. I'm not sure that's outside the rules though, is it?
I meant more what would it look like if practices just booked people in for dose 2 three weeks after the first one. What does having their licence revoked mean? And how many revoked licences before the whole programme falls apart and they have to be unrevoked?
(Fantasising, basically
)
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
I think this looks reasonable in terms of broad dates and groups:
Covid: When will I get the vaccine? - BBC News
I'm 60, so in the 2nd phase of vaccinations, though with about 2/3 of the group numerically ahead of me priority wise. Think that adds up to me being about the middle of March, though it wouldn't surprise me if it takes a bit longer to vaccinate the 7.9m vulnerable people in that phase.
elbows
Well-Known Member
The ONS infection survey is still not available. But I just saw this news item about an interim report from a somewhat similar study, REACT-1.
Covid: Infections 'must be brought down' to help NHS
Researchers warn that unless something changes, hospitals will continue facing significant pressure.
www.bbc.co.uk
The actual paper is here, and I include a quote of some detail that was missing from the BBC article.
wayward bob
i ate all your bees
now possibly at risk from flooding
Live weather updates as two severe flood warnings remain in Wales
Two severe flood warnings, 12 flood warnings and 22 flood alerts are in place across Wales
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
The patchy/inconsistent nature of the vaccine roll-out is getting a bit more MSM traction this morning:
More stories on the radio this morning about the anxiety being caused to those 80+ who've not yet heard at all about their jab.
Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
Broadly I’m expecting end of Feb I think, I’m in category 6, clinically vulnerable under 60, but I’m seeing several people in the same category get the first dose this last week or two which makes me bit impatient.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
The messaging around this (especially given that we're initially talking about v. old cohorts) has been far from helpful. Irrespective of the 'logic' of the roll-out and utilisation of the vaccines, clearly there's many old folks out there that don't know what's happening and feel forgotten. It didn't have to be like that.I can understand prioritising first doses but surely none of it should go to waste?
wayward bob
i ate all your bees
my mum's due the first slice of vaccines promised by mid-feb (over 75) but preparing myself for them missing that.
overall progress in wales is hardly inspiring and we're a high population area with significant numbers of essential workers that need reaching first.
and now additional weather-related logistical issues.
her and similarly aged mates across the country/world are all one-upping/commiserating over vaccine status. the bingo of our times
overall progress in wales is hardly inspiring and we're a high population area with significant numbers of essential workers that need reaching first.
and now additional weather-related logistical issues.
her and similarly aged mates across the country/world are all one-upping/commiserating over vaccine status. the bingo of our times
Threshers_Flail
Well-Known Member
my mum's due the first slice of vaccines promised by mid-feb (over 75) but preparing myself for them missing that.
overall progress in wales is hardly inspiring and we're a high population area with significant numbers of essential workers that need reaching first.
and now additional weather-related logistical issues.
her and similarly aged mates across the country/world are all one-upping/commiserating over vaccine status. the bingo of our times
Where are you based if you don't mind me asking? My gramps is 81 and hasn't heard a thing yet, he lives in Newport.
rubbershoes
not the only raver in the village
Surplus absolutely shouldn't go to waste. I'm not sure that's outside the rules though, is it?
I meant more what would it look like if practices just booked people in for dose 2 three weeks after the first one. What does having their licence revoked mean? And how many revoked licences before the whole programme falls apart and they have to be unrevoked?
(Fantasising, basically
My GP mate is doing vaccinations at his surgery. When they have leftovers at the end of the day, they call any other medics they know.
Medics are a priority group in the vaccination programme so soon the surgery will probably run out of spare medic friends who haven't had one yet. I don't know who they'll call then?
Cloo
Banana for scale
It all feels like 2 steps forwards, one step back. OK, we got the vaccine - but we've also got the new variant. So I can't see that we're going to be allowed any more social mixing this summer - I guess they'll try opening schools for summer term, but that might well go horribly wrong. And by the time enough people are vaccinated to start making a difference, we'll be back in winter/autumn and will probably have to tighten up restrictions, or at least still not see one another indoors because we still won't be sure how effective the vaccine will be 'in the wild'
So I can't see much at the moment what can be different this year from last, in fact possible we'll be more restricted as going abroad might be off because everywhere may insist on quarantine this year, especially from the UK.
The only thing that might make any difference it seems, is if they can conclude that the vaccine does prevent or significantly lower the capability to infect others, but I gather that is very complicated so assume they might need a good long time before they can be sure of that.
So I can't see much at the moment what can be different this year from last, in fact possible we'll be more restricted as going abroad might be off because everywhere may insist on quarantine this year, especially from the UK.
The only thing that might make any difference it seems, is if they can conclude that the vaccine does prevent or significantly lower the capability to infect others, but I gather that is very complicated so assume they might need a good long time before they can be sure of that.
elbows
Well-Known Member
The ONS infection survey is still not available. But I just saw this news item about an interim report from a somewhat similar study, REACT-1.
Covid: Infections 'must be brought down' to help NHS
Researchers warn that unless something changes, hospitals will continue facing significant pressure.www.bbc.co.uk
Analysis has been added to the BBC article since I first read it:
On the one hand what the study seems to show is consistent with my 'bounce back' concerns of recent weeks, that people going back to work etc in January, and lockdown not being strong enough, could mean that after an initial drop, rates get stuck at a very high level.
On the other hand, whats seen in the study seems to be at odds with what the ZOE Covid app data has shown, which so far seems to have been more like a continual fall. But I've never really explored what distinct limitations there may be to ZOE methodology.
wayward bob
i ate all your bees
cardiff
platinumsage
HaveMyPassword123
The abstract says they were using figures only up to 3rd December for their comparisons, so I'm not sure they can conclude anything useful about January compared to T&T figures.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Yes I am keeping as open a mind on this as I can manage right now. Limitations in question are the reason I included this qute from the preprint earlier:
In terms of incomplete reporting on this story, the fact that is mostly missing but that is tempting to include is that the weekly ONS infection survey did not come out on schedule last Friday. Thats a similar sort of study but doesnt have the gaps that REACT-1 does. The failure of it to come out on time should have been a bigger story than it has been. When Pickmans Model suggested that they may be withholding it because it shows bad things, I initially rejected that view. But thats because I probably made a mistake with my view of what period that ONS study would cover, I wasnt expecting to see any signs of infections getting stuck at a certain levels until the subsequent report to the missing one in question, but I think I got my sense of data timing wrong! Although since last time I checked that ONS report still wasnt out so I;m unsure, and tomorrow the next version is due anyway!
elbows
Well-Known Member
I still havent seen the ONS data in question but it sounds like Johnson has made reference to both, although with the way he says these things leaves room for the possibility he has misspoken. But probably more likely he is setting the scene for what the data will reveal.
It continues to drive me nuts that we live in a country where important pandemic data being late or being withheld is not treated as a suspicious sign by our press.
www.reuters.com
It continues to drive me nuts that we live in a country where important pandemic data being late or being withheld is not treated as a suspicious sign by our press.
UK PM Johnson says to early to say when national lockdown will end
It is too early to say when the national COVID lockdown in England will end, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Thursday, adding that persistently high infection levels demonstrated how infectious a new variant was.
teuchter
je suis teuchter
Here are the graphs that are in the REACT (pre-print) report
I am somewhat out of my depth here really but here is a representation of their findings, which shows the gap throughout December where they do not have results.
I think that essentially the pink shaded area means "line probably passes somewhere through here"? So for that latest period, the line could be quite plausibly pointing either up or down.
When you look at the tested cases graph though it looks like this
So surely knowing that, it's then more plausible that the line is not in fact rising, throughout that latest chunk of data they have?
Later they also have this graph, where I guess they've done something mathematical to fit a line that fills in the gaps
But is that using some kind of mathematical function that doesn't know anything about data that's available from elsewhere?
It does seem that this has been reported in a very uncritical way in the BBC news item.
I am somewhat out of my depth here really but here is a representation of their findings, which shows the gap throughout December where they do not have results.
I think that essentially the pink shaded area means "line probably passes somewhere through here"? So for that latest period, the line could be quite plausibly pointing either up or down.
When you look at the tested cases graph though it looks like this
So surely knowing that, it's then more plausible that the line is not in fact rising, throughout that latest chunk of data they have?
Later they also have this graph, where I guess they've done something mathematical to fit a line that fills in the gaps
But is that using some kind of mathematical function that doesn't know anything about data that's available from elsewhere?
It does seem that this has been reported in a very uncritical way in the BBC news item.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Well we will find out more tomorrow, because the ONS page for their infection survey that failed to report on schedule last Friday now says:
I suppose I am expecting 'a mixed bag'.
I suppose I am expecting 'a mixed bag'.
teuchter
je suis teuchter
Does the ONS survey pull on different test data than that shown on the regular gov.uk page?
elbows
Well-Known Member
Yes, its the survey, household sampling type approach that has been discussed here many times, that some people on u75 participate in. Still based on actual tests, but will for example be expected to pick up asymptomatic cases because its not reliant on people having symptoms that make them seek out a test.
One of its strengths compared to the normal testing system is that it shouldnt be badly affected by changes in peoples behaviour in terms of seeking tests. And such behaviours would have been expected to change during school holidays, lockdowns etc. So there is a risk that the drop seen in the standard daily figures is not capturing the full picture, and survey-based forms of routine testing of selected households should do a better job of capturing the full picture in a more consistent way over time.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Downing Street press briefing at 5pm today, hosted by Patel with Martin Hewitt, Chair of the National Police Chiefs’ Council, and Dr Vin Diwakar, NHS England regional medical director for London.
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