BREXIT Crunch time (part 38) WTF is going to happen next?

[Teaboy]

An extension and a new negotiation with new/no 'red lines'. Presumably May is finally toast. tbh the only thing I would totally rule out as a possible eventual outcome is 'no deal'.

Not sure I'd be ruling anything out or in. Even the vote to rule out no deal won't stop it from happening if the blundering continues.

May has to go is the only route out of this I can see. With her gone then extension to A50 may have some purpose but it serves no purpose if May is still there pushing her boulder up hill for all eternity.

 

[ska invita]

May has signaled/threatened she's up a soft brexit with labour

 

[Kaka Tim]

yeah - if her deal gets rejected tonight i think she will finally go. probably resign after parliament votes to extend a50 - cant see the tories wanting to her be in charge of the negotiations/national humiliation anymore. not that a new leader will change the fundamentals.

 

[Wilf]

May has signaled/threatened she's up a soft brexit with labour

Where/when (genuine q)?

The irony of that would be it would be close to something that maybe 3/4 of the Commons actually believe in. But doing anything that looked like 'working with Labour' (particularly if it was anything akin to 'Corbyn's letter') would lead to a good % of her MPs opposing it - and the real chance of a tory split. Oh, hang on...

 

[cupid_stunt]

BBC reporting a DUP source saying they can not support the deal.

No surprise there.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

May has to go is the only route out of this I can see. With her gone then extension to A50 may have some purpose but it serves no purpose if May is still there pushing her boulder up hill for all eternity.

There's a lot of talk of A50 extension, but how far could it be extended? There's something about it can't be extended at all without a substantive change in the UK's policies and even then, has any EU bod suggested that they would be prepared to see it go past the elections in May?

 

[brogdale]

yeah - if her deal gets rejected tonight i think she will finally go. probably resign after parliament votes to extend a50 - cant see the tories wanting to her be in charge of the negotiations/national humiliation anymore. not that a new leader will change the fundamentals.

Sounds of grey suits being taken from wardrobes.

 

[Teaboy]

Where/when (genuine q)?

The irony of that would be it would be close to something that maybe 3/4 of the Commons actually believe in. But doing anything that looked like 'working with Labour' (particularly if it was anything akin to 'Corbyn's letter') would lead to a good % of her MPs opposing it - and the real chance of a tory split. Oh, hang on...

That's why it won't happen, she'll resign before working with Labour in any way as she knows it could fracture the tories even further. Party has always been the number one priority is all this.

 

[Idris2002]

BBC reporting a DUP source saying they can not support the deal.

No surprise there.

Forgive me, Theresa, I just couldn't take anymore.

 

[Teaboy]

There's a lot of talk of A50 extension, but how far could it be extended? There's something about it can't be extended at all without a substantive change in the UK's policies and even then, has any EU bod suggested that they would be prepared to see it go past the elections in May?

I guess it would depend on the purpose. If there was a different UK team and different approach then I see no reason why the EU wouldn't be OK to see A50 extended by anything up to a couple of years. If its just headbutting a brick wall over and over again then there is no real point going beyond the end of March let alone into the EU elections in May.

 

[Wilf]

Just as an aside, May's biggest failure was her unwillingness to see she couldn't get a deal through in the traditional manner of party votes and the rest. She should have twigged that a few months ago and started to talk to Corbyn, both to get something through and spread the blame around. Of course that would have been unthinkable in our FPP system which assumes governments have a majority and don't need to talk to anyone. It may well have fucked her completely within her own party, but it shows how trapped within the narrow logics of British politics she is.

In case that comes across as me sounding like some kind of libdem, break the mould, why can't we all work together type - I'M NOT. Fuck 'em all and their squalid system. But it does illustrate that the 'Westminster Politics' bit of British neo-liberalism is broken - it can't actually deliver and isn't very fast on its feet.

 

[Wilf]

Sounds of grey suits being taken from wardrobes.

 

[flypanam]

.

But it does illustrate that the 'Westminster Politics' bit of British neo-liberalism is broken - it can't actually deliver and isn't very fast on its feet.

One of my work mates, a tory, made that very point this morning. She's livid. She wants a recall mechanism.

 

[Mr Moose]

That's why it won't happen, she'll resign before working with Labour in any way as she knows it could fracture the tories even further. Party has always been the number one priority is all this.

Theresa the number one priority surely?

 

[MrCurry]

Well, if nothing else, these are at least entertaining times for fans of politics. We must take the crumbs of comfort where we find them.

That was a response to Jon Snow on Twitter saying that there was political pressure on him.

The most interesting thing to me is why he was reading twitter links at a time like this? Surely giving a legal opinion on the matter at hand is a pressing, absorbing undertaking which should not involve reading Twitter. Or does it reveal that these decisions are a bit more political than they might like to admit, and “taking the temperature” of the debate was in order, prior to putting pen to paper?

 

[Wilf]

One of my work mates, a tory, made that very point this morning. She's livid. She wants a recall mechanism.

Yep - and also to Teaboy 's point above. Sometimes you have to remind yourself these fuckers conduct themselves. There are certainly channels of communications between the parties, but otherwise the whole thing plays out via channels of idiocy, votes, open letters and spin. The one thing they can't actually do is sit down and talk to each other in a meaningful way. I obviously don't think that mediation and dialogue can solve the fundamental differences of a class society and the things we talk about. But in terms of their logic, their bigger picture, the consensus they are all part of, they deny themselves the basic ways of making progress. AKA politics is shit.

 

[Teaboy]

Theresa the number one priority surely?

I don't think so, I think she puts party above self otherwise why in her right mind would she be putting herself through all this? Country comes down the list of course.

The most interesting thing to me is why he was reading twitter links at a time like this? Surely giving a legal opinion on the matter at hand is a pressing, absorbing undertaking which should not involve reading Twitter. Or does it reveal that these decisions are a bit more political than they might like to admit, and “taking the temperature” of the debate was in order, prior to putting pen to paper?

I imagine his advice was written days ago when it was all agreed. Last night was just stage managed nonsense to distract and fool.

 

[ska invita]

Heraclitus not Buddha

Ah! Sounded pretty zen to me

Stirling's response to the legal advice on Mays latest "deal".

The city giving their 2ps worth. Literally.

It's dead. It's dead now and will be dead this evening. Today will be a total waste of everyone's time.

20 more pages before midnight.

Where/when (genuine q)?

n...

I'll try and find it but not sure where I read it now. It was probably mainly a threat to get waverers to vote more than a promise

 

[elbows]

Armageddon! edit - oh that was a gerbil.

 

[killer b]

Armageddon! edit - oh that was a gerbil.

It doesn't matter, 'cause this is what everyone is thinking anyway. Either that or something about Richard Gere.

 

[ska invita]

Is Kyle Wilson amendment happening? Vote Mays deal for second ref?

 

[Wilf]

On May resigning, getting the push: I'm not sure how/when that might happen (as in, literally, I haven't got a clue rather than suggesting it won't). But it's worth remembering what a crushing blow that would be for her. She's the PM who (didn't) deliver Brexit, she's the PM who hung on after the biggest defeat ever just so that she could have another go at doing Brexit. Her career, her reputation and sense of personal worth are fucked by this. Good.

 

[Mr Moose]

I don't think so, I think she puts party above self otherwise why in her right mind would she be putting herself through all this? Country comes down the list of course.



I imagine his advice was written days ago when it was all agreed. Last night was just stage managed nonsense to distract and fool.

Because she loves being Prime Minister. I think she’s one of vainest, most vapid politicians of all time with scarcely a belief to call her own. She appears unencumbered by political philosophy or any strong belief other than in her own success.

So I don’t think she’s ‘putting herself through’ anything. All that jetting off to Strasbourg in funky coats, that’s her best of all worlds.

 

[Sprocket.]

Tory MPs keep gushing about May’s resolve and strength, I only see belligerent arrogance.

 

[Wilf]

Is Kyle Wilson amendment happening? Vote Mays deal for second ref?

Good Q. In all the 'excitement', I'd forgotten that they were supposed to be allowing amendments to the vote today (I think???).

 

[Idris2002]

Tory MPs keep gushing about May’s resolve and strength, I only see belligerent arrogance.

She's not a good person, that's for sure.

 

[elbows]

Good Q. In all the 'excitement', I'd forgotten that they were supposed to be allowing amendments to the vote today (I think???).

The only news I saw on that front is that Labour didnt table any amendments by the 10.30am cutoff time.

 

[Wilf]

Because she loves being Prime Minister. I think she’s one of vainest, most vapid politicians of all time with scarcely a belief to call her own. She appears unencumbered by political philosophy or any strong belief other than in her own success.

So I don’t think she’s ‘putting herself through’ anything. All that jetting off to Strasbourg in funky coats, that’s her best of all worlds.

I'm not sure that she's the most vapid politician or that, pedantically, that's the word for it. She's a 'post ideological' politician, in the sense of someone who fits easily into contemporary neo-liberalism but hasn't got any clear desire to change it or put her own imprint on it (so yes, perhaps vapid then). But I agree with the rest. And for her performance as Home Sec she's a cunt.

 

[Kaka Tim]

She's not without core values - she definitely believes in racism and xenophobia.

 

[Wilf]

The only news I saw on that front is that Labour didnt table any amendments by the 10.30am cutoff time.

There are apparently 10 amendments on the order paper, though the speaker hasn't said which he will accept. He also said yesterday that he might accept 'manuscript amendments', which are of the fag packet variety. The 10 are buried in this:
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmagenda/OP190312.pdf