BREXIT Crunch time (part 38) WTF is going to happen next?
- Thread starter Kaka Tim
- Start date
The scale of defeat seems important. At the moment it looks about as grim as could be for her.
Pretty funny stuff.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
I'm not sure it does this time. She doesn't get a third go. One of the downsides of the strategy of running down the clock.
alsoknownas
some bloke
Government won't win, but there is a reduced-majority scenario (including abstentions) that will look good for them. They could stumble on to a third vote - and plenty of ERG types look ready to crumble at that stage. One saying today that they are looking for a 'ladder to climb-down with'.
Big loss still more likely though I reckon.
Big loss still more likely though I reckon.
Why not? There doesn't seem to be any set rules in play and she's shown incredible belligerence. If she lost by 20 or 30 votes I reckon she'd fancy another crack.
andysays
Love and solidarity
Something along these lines makes most sense to me. May's red lines going effectively means May herself going, by whatever means...
ska invita
back on the other side
The other problem there is Labour don't want it either..... Anything that looks like facilitating a Tory lead brexit is going to cause huge fights within the party
What we really need now is an election resulting in a hung parliament.
alsoknownas
some bloke
If she loses by twenty votes. she'll be the one getting the champagne in.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Well, no deal and extension would then pass this week before that, unless May calls them back in tomorrow for another vote. Or maybe just locks them in.
For sure. Lots of reports about vast swathes of empty spaces on the tory benches during her speech. Rats and sinking ships.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Logically they all ought to be voting the same way they voted last time - their objection wasn't really to do with the backstop. But using logic here doesn't get you very far.
TIG are proffering an amendment on a second referendum. They won't be voting for the deal.
They're all voting against it with the odd exception of a few MP's. Most of that lot want to stop Brexit completely so will always be voting against a deal.
ska invita
back on the other side
The sooner the election, the funnier the end of Tinge will be. Before they have time to make a party would be funniest
who among them is the odd exception? they're all People's Vote campaigners - it's their only significant policy. There is zero chance of any of them voting for the deal today.
1%er
Well-Known Member
I don't know what the British press are saying but here they spoke with a number of EU politicos on the news and they were saying it doesn't matter what the UK parliament votes for if they don't vote for this deal. They also said that if the UK votes for an "extension" it is unlikely that the EU would agree unless it is for a general election or a 2nd public vote. All of them said the negotiations are over, so they will not vote for an extension just so the UK can keep trying different wording in a deal the EU has already agreed to.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
In the real world, the EU agrees to an extension if the UK comes back and says it will change its red lines. And the UK will come back and say it will change its red lines if May's deal is voted down. Once May resigns, all kinds of things open up - at least half the cabinet wants Noway+, for instance.
chilango
Hypothetical Wanker
Remember this?
Don't put anything past these kinda bastards simply cos it's "policy". Their sense of self-importance will override that everytime.
Well that there is that oddball lib dem from the South West (can't be bothered to look him up) who voted with the government last time and some worried labour MP's might be tempted to back it with the potential for an election imminent. None of the tinge lot but the original question was more general then just them.
Crispy
The following psytrance is baṉned: All
Christ I fucking hope so
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Guardian breathlessly reporting 14 switchers so far (lab and con), net effect of 28.
Brexit: May opens debate as DUP and ERG say they cannot back deal – Politics live
Some of the ultra weak will be looking out for what the bigger boys and girls are doing, but it's not quite good news for May.
Brexit: May opens debate as DUP and ERG say they cannot back deal – Politics live
Some of the ultra weak will be looking out for what the bigger boys and girls are doing, but it's not quite good news for May.
1%er
Well-Known Member
Lot of "if" there, May resigns and who will pick up the poison chalice.
If the UK parliament votes for an extension that is just a vote to change the current law.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
If they've declared publicly, they'll look silly not doing it. They'll also look silly doing it of course - what changed their minds exactly, it's exactly the same as last time - but hey.
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
I’ve not seen any of the Matrix films, so the allusion is lost on me, but I have never in any sense had the feeling, even fleetingly, that May is fighting “for us”.
Crispy
The following psytrance is baṉned: All
An extension on what terms though? GE? 2ndRef?
They'd need a majority *for* one of these things in order for the EU to say yes.
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