BREXIT Crunch time (part 38) WTF is going to happen next?

[Wilf]

Given that the various erg clowns seem to be saying 'sorry, it's a no from me', presumably the big push from May and the Whips will be to get them to abstain. That gives her the thinnest sliver of justification to carry on for another push, stay in office for another day, keep the whiskey and revolver in the cupboard....

 

[Winot]

Interview just now on R4 with Charles Walker (Chair of 1922 Procedure Committee - Graham Brady's no. 2). Arguing very forcefully that if/when May's deal goes down, there will be a General Election. He basically said that this is a failing Parliament and that the Government has run out of road and was unable to govern. Pretty strong words, even if the objective was to persuade backbenchers to vote for the deal.

 

[grit]

Interview just now on R4 with Charles Walker (Chair of 1922 Procedure Committee - Graham Brady's no. 2). Arguing very forcefully that if/when May's deal goes down, there will be a General Election. He basically said that this is a failing Parliament and that the Government has run out of road and was unable to govern. Pretty strong words, even if the objective was to persuade backbenchers to vote for the deal.

Huh, I had completely written off my bet at the bookies for May to step down in March, might be a few bob in this yet!

 

[SpackleFrog]

Bookies offering anything from 1/5 to 1/9 on extension of A50. If there is an extension I think May will have to go because she won't cancel Brexit and she won't go for No Deal.

Charles Walker is not wrong - stopped clocks and all that.

 

[Teaboy]

Interview just now on R4 with Charles Walker (Chair of 1922 Procedure Committee - Graham Brady's no. 2). Arguing very forcefully that if/when May's deal goes down, there will be a General Election. He basically said that this is a failing Parliament and that the Government has run out of road and was unable to govern. Pretty strong words, even if the objective was to persuade backbenchers to vote for the deal.

Yes I saw that. He's had enough, clearly. Phrases like "backbenchers at each other throats". You'd think something has got to give, but this being May she will already be eyeing up meaningful vote number 3.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Huh, I had completely written off my bet at the bookies for May to step down in March, might be a few bob in this yet!

Oh mate what did you get? I *wish* I'd put that on!

 

[SpackleFrog]

Just got 2/1 on May to be out by end of June which seemed pretty generous.

 

[alsoknownas]

There are apparently 10 amendments on the order paper, though the speaker hasn't said which he will accept. He also said yesterday that he might accept 'manuscript amendments', which are of the fag packet variety. The 10 are buried in this:
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmagenda/OP190312.pdf

All fag packets chucked in bin (none selected).

 

[SpackleFrog]

May literally croaking in the Commons right now.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

DUP statement



EU has been intransigent, says the DUP. Still a few LOLs to be squeezed out of the absurdity.

 

[andysays]

Bookies offering anything from 1/5 to 1/9 on extension of A50. If there is an extension I think May will have to go because she won't cancel Brexit and she won't go for No Deal.

Charles Walker is not wrong - stopped clocks and all that.

I suspect you have this back to front - May going (however that happens) would be a pre-condition of an extension, not a consequence

 

[8ball]

May literally croaking in the Commons right now.

Cool, you’ll be able to translate for us.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

So on the maths, it will take a sizeable labour revolt to see May home. Any chance of that at all beyond the handful who voted for it last time?

 

[Barking_Mad]

There will have to be a GE in my view unless May really wants to go down the softer Brexit route and try and garner support from Labour etc.

It's quite amusing that the ERG want a hard Brexit but are in position to be the midwives for it not actually happening.

 

[killer b]

So on the maths, it will take a sizeable labour revolt to see May home. Any chance of that at all beyond the handful who voted for it last time?

no chance whatsoever.

 

[Teaboy]

There has been a steady stream of tories who previously voted against the deal come out and say that this time around they will vote for it.

Interestingly both the DUP and the ERG have not specifically stated they will vote against it just that they can't back it. Something as important as this would be an odd thing to abstain on but if they do this vote could be a bit closer than originally thought. It'll be voted down but it might only be double figures.

 

[killer b]

Interestingly both the DUP and the ERG have not specifically stated they will vote against it just that they can't back it.

The DUP have said they're voting against just now

 

[Teaboy]

The DUP have said they're voting against just now

Oh, back up to triple figures then probably.

 

[cupid_stunt]

The DUP have said they're voting against just now

As has the ERG.

A key group of Brexiteer Tory MPs say they will be voting against Theresa May's Brexit deal in the Commons later.

The European Research Group say they are not convinced by legal assurances secured by the PM in 11th hour talks with EU officials.

Brexiteer Tories reject PM's revised deal

 

[SpackleFrog]

I suspect you have this back to front - May going (however that happens) would be a pre-condition of an extension, not a consequence

Ahh well you could be right - but that might mean the EU demanding May go in order to grant an extension which might not look good for them. Instead I would think they would say a pre-condition is an election or a second referendum, which would then mean May would go as the Tories wouldn't trust her with another election.

 

[killer b]

The EU will not demand May goes. You're fucking mad.

 

[Sprocket.]

DUP statement

View attachment 164252

EU has been intransigent, says the DUP. Still a few LOLs to be squeezed out of the absurdity.

Snakes always bite!

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Ahh well you could be right - but that might mean the EU demanding May go in order to grant an extension which might not look good for them. Instead I would think they would say a pre-condition is an election or a second referendum, which would then mean May would go as the Tories wouldn't trust her with another election.

Don't think they could directly ask for either an election or a second ref - that would be straying into territory where they're interfering with democracy (yes, I know, but formally it's hard for them be seen to be doing that). More likely imo would be a demand that May's 'red lines' should be dropped, thus perhaps smoothing a path to something like Norway+. How the UK gets to come back to the table without its red lines would then be for the UK to decide.

 

[Wilf]

There has been a steady stream of tories who previously voted against the deal come out and say that this time around they will vote for it.

Interestingly both the DUP and the ERG have not specifically stated they will vote against it just that they can't back it. Something as important as this would be an odd thing to abstain on but if they do this vote could be a bit closer than originally thought. It'll be voted down but it might only be double figures.

Yep, in as much as its worth making any predictions on this shitshow within shitshows, that's about the best for today's events. And that almost certainly gives May another week in office.

 

[Teaboy]

I know we keep going round in circles but this really does feel like end game for May.

 

[Wilf]

The DUP have said they're voting against just now

'Ulster says NO! (unless you can find another £billion before 7p.m.)'

 

[Teaboy]

Snakes always bite!

Yeah, May spent so long trying to woo the DUP and the ERG its fitting that they are the ones to sink her.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

'Ulster says NO! (unless you can find another £billion before 7p.m.)'

The DUP cannot be bought.

Merely rented.

 

[alsoknownas]

Have DUP specified voting against (as opposed to abstain?). Not yet seen that.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Possibly a stupid question, but presumably the Tinge are voting against. If so, even if the DUP and ERG merely abstain, it's still hard to see the govt winning this.