BREXIT Crunch time (part 38) WTF is going to happen next?

[ska invita]

Well, given as any resolution is going to be one that fucks us all over some more, I'm taking meagre solace in watching them fuck themselves over (however fleetingly) in the process.

For me Mays deal has the biggest casualty rate...I'll be gutted if it passes.

 

[killer b]

Im not one to say What IS She Wearing but wtf? is she trying to play up to the image of a Brexiteer

Great coat, the hat was a mistake.

 

[Sprocket.]

Im not one to say What IS She Wearing but wtf? is she trying to play up to the image of a Brexiteer

All for Jean!

 

[Mr Moose]

For me Mays deal has the biggest casualty rate...I'll be gutted if it passes.

Although if it does it merely starts again, but without that second referendum malarkey, which will be a relief.

The final state of relations is barely marked out and so hard or soft options will still be available. It’s just that it won’t be May in charge.

 

[killer b]

It’s just that it won’t be May in charge.

wouldn't bet on this

 

[killer b]

If this passes I reckon she's safe for a bit. She'll be Thatcher reborn again, the lady not for turning.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Can anyone get beyond the Telegraph's paywall, and see if this statement is from a international lawyer, or just a journalist's view?

The point is that if the UK lodges the Declaration, either at the UN or as part of the Withdrawal Agreement ratification process and the EU does not object (and it has agreed it will not), then it will become a document with legal force and implicit EU agreement.

What are the 'legally-binding changes' to Theresa May's Brexit deal - and will they persuade enough MPs to vote for it?

 

[Mr Moose]

If this passes I reckon she's safe for a bit. She'll be Thatcher reborn again, the lady not for turning.

The headbangers won’t support her without absolute assurance that she goes. She delivered Brexit, there’s your legacy now fuck off.

 

[killer b]

I don't know why anyone would take any assurances from May, absolute or otherwise, at this point. But if they do, more fool them (and you).

 

[killer b]

have you missed the last two years of politics or something?

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

Agreed. So far the only thing she's shown the slightest aptitude for is digging in and refusing to budge. Who's going to listen to her saying whatever and think 'well she definitely won't dig in and refuse to budge'?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Can anyone get beyond the Telegraph's paywall, and see if this statement is from a international lawyer, or just a journalist's view?



What are the 'legally-binding changes' to Theresa May's Brexit deal - and will they persuade enough MPs to vote for it?

It's essentially the Telegraph's official take on what was agreed last night. So not from an international lawyer but not quite just a journalist's view either. It's really very dull, but this seems to be the important point:

The deal hasn't been reopened as such, but the UK has been allowed to make a Unilateral Statement that it appears does have some kind of legal force while not being legally binding. It has moral force, it appears, which matters in this kind of stuff.

It recalls that the Irish backstop is only ever intended as a temporary measure and that if the EU fails to come an agreement to remove the backstop "in breach" of its promise to use "best endeavours" to do so, the UK would consider that the backstop had become de facto permanent.


If this happened, the UK says this could "ultimately lead to disapplication of obligations under the Protocol" via the independent arbitration mechanism set out in the Withdrawal Agreement and the grievance procedure in the Irish backstop protocol.

What does it mean?
In plain language, that the UK has the right to take the EU to the joint arbitration mechanism if the EU does not act sincerely to remove the backstop - a fear often advanced by the Brexiteers.

What was agreed last night is basically a lot of hot air. Then there's this:

Para 6 - commitment to a new arrangement by 2020
This paragraph is the most obvious 'win' for the British side and surprised UK negotiators that they were able to secure it.

It says that the EU shares the UK ambitious aspirations that 'alternative arrangements' should be in place by December 31 2020 to deliver on the Irish border to obviate the need for the backstop.

More hot air. Will it make a difference to the vote? Fuck knows.

 

[brogdale]

Interesting that it's the remainiacs' (PV) lawyers that have been first out of the traps to rubbish May's fudge(s).

 

[killer b]

Interesting that it's the remainiacs' (PV) lawyers that have been first out of the traps to rubbish May's fudge(s).

Why? They were always going to rubbish it. If it goes through the PV is totally off the table. The brexit lot have a much more difficult decision to make.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Well after reading the Telegraph's summary, there aren't even fudges in there, or at least no further fudges, just a clarification of the really very fudgy nature of the fudges already in there. May's deal is still May's deal, but with an added assurance from the EU that they will try really hard to make it work. That appears to be it.

 

[Mr Moose]

have you missed the last two years of politics or something?

Maybe you have. Maybe you have missed the speculation on the assurances she has already given that she will go. She can’t get the deal across the line without their support. What do you suppose the price would be?

She hangs on like a limpet, but like any other politician her time is limited.

 

[killer b]

I haven't missed the speculation, I just don't think any of her assurances mean anything, as evidenced by the last two years of politics.

Whether the deal gets over the line today doesn't hinge on what assurances May has given her MPs, it hinges on whether they think it's possible to get anything better, given the current parliamentary arithmetic: I'd say Boles' threat this morning (see this thread) is fairly key in explaining what's at stake, and why so many key brexiters are breaking today.

 

[Mr Moose]

I haven't missed the speculation, I just don't think any of her assurances mean anything, as evidenced by the last two years of politics.

Whether the deal gets over the line today doesn't hinge on what assurances May has given her MPs, it hinges on whether they think it's possible to get anything better, given the current parliamentary arithmetic: I'd say Boles' threat this morning (see this thread) is fairly key in explaining what's at stake, and why so many key brexiters are breaking today.

I agree that she can’t be trusted a step, I just can’t see, should her deal get through, that she gets a further two years to negotiate the next bit.

But, hedging here, there is a reason why she is PM, which is that the Tories are split and she was the compromise.

 

[8ball]

Well after reading the Telegraph's summary, there aren't even fudges in there, or at least no further fudges, just a clarification of the really very fudgy nature of the fudges already in there. May's deal is still May's deal, but with an added assurance from the EU that they will try really hard to make it work. That appears to be it.

So the deal basically relies on a bunch of people blinking first, later today.

 

[brogdale]

Why? They were always going to rubbish it. If it goes through the PV is totally off the table. The brexit lot have a much more difficult decision to make.

That's why I find their haste 'interesting'; if they're hoping that the ERG will be their useful idiots I'd have thought being a little more nuanced/timely would have been wise tbh.

 

[killer b]

That's why I find their haste 'interesting'; if they're hoping that the ERG will be their useful idiots I'd have thought being a little more nuanced/timely would have been wise tbh.

The point of it is to make it difficult for Cox to fudge his legal advice, so it needed to be out quick.

 

[Teaboy]

So the deal basically relies on a bunch of people blinking first, later today.

Its been May's strategy all along though hasn't it? I reckon if allowed she would spend the rest of her life returning to Parliament with the same deal in the hope it would eventually pass. Its literally all she has.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Its been May's strategy all along though hasn't it? I reckon if allowed she would spend the rest of her life returning to Parliament with the same deal in the hope it would eventually pass. Its literally all she has.

I'm beyond being surprised by this process now, but it will be quite mad if the deal passes today. It is exactly the same thing they voted on last time.

 

[ska invita]

I'm beyond being surprised by this process now, but it will be quite mad if the deal passes today. It is exactly the same thing they voted on last time.

Is a river ever the same twice?
#brexitbuddhism

 

[ska invita]

Is this Cox fella any more impartial than Goldsmith was about Blairs WMDs?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Is this Cox fella any more impartial than Goldsmith was about Blairs WMDs?

Of course not.

 

[ska invita]

Of course not.

We're doomed

 

[killer b]

Cox's advice is out: I don't think it looks brilliant for May tbh.

Legal Opinion on Joint Instrument and Unilateral Declaration concerning the Withdrawal Agreement

 

[brogdale]

The point of it is to make it difficult for Cox to fudge his legal advice, so it needed to be out quick.

But fudge is all he can do, surely?

 

[killer b]

But fudge is all he can do, surely?

His advice is out now - the final paragraph is this, which IMO will kill any chance of the deal going through today:

19. However, the legal risk remains unchanged that if through no such demonstrable failure of either party, but simply because of intractable differences, that situation does arise, the United Kingdom would have, at least while the fundamental circumstances remained the same, no internationally lawful means of exiting the Protocol’s arrangements, save by agreement.

Would that paragraph be there or so definitive if the PV lot hadn't been out of the traps so fast, and already had significant coverage this morning for their advice? Maybe, maybe not - either way it was a wise move.