BREXIT Crunch time (part 38) WTF is going to happen next?

[ska invita]

I dont understand Malthouse

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Even then it would have been pretty marginal surely... I mean on pure numbers she’d still be losing. Though of course many other factors would be in play, which is why counterfactuals are a bit crap.

With a majority of 50+, she could have pushed through a deal without ERG support. I think that was her plan with calling that election - judging that a majority of 12 wasn't enough to get any deal through. But without any majority at all, that plan went up in smoke. It's one of the many absurdities that she's just blundered on without a hope of success. I can only assume that she hoped Labour would split on the issue and help her out. I don't see what other idea she might have had.

 

[brogdale]

I dont understand Malthouse

It won't pass in Parliament..so don't waste too much brain-space on it.

 

[ska invita]

It won't pass in Parliament..so don't waste too much brain-space on it.

done

 

[Teaboy]

It won't pass in Parliament..so don't waste too much brain-space on it.

Plus the EU probably wouldn't go along with it either.

 

[andysays]

I thought the unicorns had been indefinitely detained at Calais.

I thought it was still possible to import unicorns tariff-free via the Irish border

 

[Fedayn]

They all voted against the deal (with Labour).

BBC had them split...

 

[Pickman's model]

I thought it was still possible to import unicorns tariff-free via the Irish border

it was

 

[danny la rouge]

I dont understand Malthouse

 

[ska invita]

I thought it was still possible to import unicorns tariff-free via the Irish border

Total aside, but did you know on the UK crest like on the passport the lion represents England and the unicorn Scotland
Read that yesterday

 

[andysays]

Total aside, but did you know on the UK crest like on the passport the lion represents England and the unicorn Scotland
Read that yesterday

Yes, I did

 

[Pickman's model]

Total aside, but did you know on the UK crest like on the passport the lion represents England and the unicorn Scotland
Read that yesterday

have you ever noticed the quim on the crest?

 

[Patteran]

Campaigning journalist Carole Cadwalladr pushing the suggestion that the Leave EU lobby's next move will be to convince international allies in Italy (& perhaps Hungary) to veto Article 50 extension. I don't know how credible this is or isn't. Presumably if the EU's senior managers want an extension, then they'll have some fairly weighty & obnoxious leverage of their own to exploit in order to assure the necessary unanimity.

 

[killer b]

BBC had them split...

either you've misread 4 independents voting with the tories as 4 independent (group) voting with the tories, or they had it listed wrong. Either way, all 11 independent group members voted against.

 

[danny la rouge]

Total aside, but did you know on the UK crest like on the passport the lion represents England and the unicorn Scotland
Read that yesterday

Yes. I assumed most people knew that.

 

[ska invita]

Campaigning journalist Carole Cadwalladr pushing the suggestion that the Leave EU lobby's next move will be to convince international allies in Italy (& perhaps Hungary) to veto Article 50 extension. I don't know how credible this is or isn't. Presumably if the EU's senior managers want an extension, then they'll have some fairly weighty & obnoxious leverage of their own to exploit in order to assure the necessary unanimity.

I kind of hope A50 does get blocked. Leaves a few days of genuinely meaningful action to sort this out without it dragging on for however long. Same difference bodging it this last week or the last week in May.
And if the link there is true shows up the cuntish forces at work nicely

she also just posted

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Hmmm. Not sure promises made to Farage, Banks or ERG headbangers are worth much. Under pressure from Germany, France, Netherlands et al to allow an extension, we'll see what decision they make.

 

[ska invita]

have you ever noticed the quim on the crest?
View attachment 164352

quimcunx likes this

 

[alsoknownas]

The process was doomed the moment the 2017 election results were announced. I suspect that May has known this all along. But she's blundered on regardless, doing exactly what she was planning to do with the majority of 50-80 that she expected.

At that point she had the assumed power to drive through a deal without a vote in the house. The High Court changed that.

 

[Pickman's model]

I kind of hope A50 does get blocked. Leaves a few days of genuinely meaningful action to sort this out without it dragging on for however long. Same difference bodging it this last week or the last week in May.
And if the link there is true shows up the cuntish forces at work nicely

she also just posted

So it'll be catastrophic no deal or catastrophic revoke a.50.

Hmm

Wonder which parliament would go for

 

[littlebabyjesus]

At that point she had the assumed power to drive through a deal without a vote in the house. The High Court changed that.

Good point. I'd forgotten that one in the long list of things this government has lost.

 

[FabricLiveBaby!]

I kind of hope A50 does get blocked. Leaves a few days of genuinely meaningful action to sort this out without it dragging on for however long. Same difference bodging it this last week or the last week in May.
And if the link there is true shows up the cuntish forces at work nicely

she also just posted

This is true. The Polish PIS party are tabling a motion to give UK nationals a right to remain post Brexit.

 

[Kaka Tim]

I kind of hope A50 does get blocked. Leaves a few days of genuinely meaningful action to sort this out without it dragging on for however long. Same difference bodging it this last week or the last week in May.
And if the link there is true shows up the cuntish forces at work nicely

she also just posted

I would imagine the wishes of the UK government and the EU would carry a bit more weight with the governments of Italy and Hungary then those of Farage and Banks - what do they get out it?
The most i can see is that they use it as a negotiating chip with the EU and/or Uk. No deal would damage them as well - not as much as the uk - but their own trade with the uk would be affected.

 

[Patteran]

So it'll be catastrophic no deal or catastrophic revoke a.50.

Hmm

Wonder which parliament would go for

 

[SpineyNorman]

How did the Tinge party vote?

Nobody on this thread seems to know. I bet Pickers could tell you though.

 

[CRI]

Campaigning journalist Carole Cadwalladr pushing the suggestion that the Leave EU lobby's next move will be to convince international allies in Italy (& perhaps Hungary) to veto Article 50 extension. I don't know how credible this is or isn't. Presumably if the EU's senior managers want an extension, then they'll have some fairly weighty & obnoxious leverage of their own to exploit in order to assure the necessary unanimity.

Yup, saw that. Remember, all the 27 other EU countries have to agree to an extension of Article 50, if the UK Government even gets to the point of asking. It only takes one to say no, and it's "nil points" to Britain.

Funny how Brexit was sold as Britain "taking back control" but so many of those determined for Britain to be out pronto on 29th March are pushing for other EU nations to deny the UK control.

There's the asshole Shrewsbury MP Daniel Kawczynski, who has been lobbying the Polish Government to reject an extension. Hardly unimaginable that Banks and Wigmore could be pulling strings with Italy as well, is it? I mean . . .



So, this afternoon, Parliament will be pissing around with a "debate" on whether to take "no deal" off the menu, then voting tonight. It's an absolute waste of time.

Even if it passes, it means fuck all because "No Deal" is the default on 29th March, unless the UK requests and is granted an extension. That's not guaranteed, and even if a unicorn flies in with this pinned to its horn, it doesn't really resolve the clusterfuck - it only buys a bit of time, during which I'd wager nothing useful would happen.

So, it's quite likely there will only be two possible outcomes in 16 days time.

- The UK revokes Article 50. This doesn't require agreement of the other EU nations. We're in such a constitutional mess that I'm not sure whether May can just do this unilaterally on behalf of the Government, or requires the agreement of Parliament. If it's the latter, well, I wouldn't put much money on it happening.

- The UK leaves the EU on 29th March without a "deal." Brace yourselves.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

It has been pointed out this morning that in pursuit of an independent trade policy the UK is heading for a no deal in which it puts up tariffs. The price of an imported family car will go up by about £1500. Oh - except if the dealer imports it from IE into NI and then sends it to the UK.

A Brexit boost for Eire and NI. The philosophical chap won’t be happy about that.

 

[xenon]

BBC had them split...

Not all independent MPs are in the Tinge. As we are now calling them. Independent group.

 

[SpineyNorman]

You don't honestly think that a few headbangers with no power have more influence over European national governments than the EU or even UK government do? Surely?

Banks must love the idea that he's some kind of machiavelian evil genius who can get national governments to do his bidding. What a strange world some people inhabit.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

- The UK revokes Article 50. This doesn't require agreement of the other EU nations. We're in such a constitutional mess that I'm not sure whether May can just do this unilaterally on behalf of the Government, or requires the agreement of Parliament. If it's the latter, well, I wouldn't put much money on it happening.

That one bit I can answer. The EU ruling (ECJ, was it?) stated that A50 can be unilaterally revoked as long as the UK has followed its own constitutional procedures. That has been widely interpreted as meaning that the government goes to parliament and the parliament votes.

EU has also said that this applies right up to 11pm on 29 March. Parliament could potentially be called to an emergency session at 10pm on that day and A50 could be revoked.