BREXIT Crunch time (part 38) WTF is going to happen next?

[littlebabyjesus]

A Communication Director using the 'grocer's apostrophe'. For shame.

 

[CRI]

That one bit I can answer. The EU ruling (ECJ, was it?) stated that A50 can be unilaterally revoked as long as the UK has followed its own constitutional procedures. That has been widely interpreted as meaning that the government goes to parliament and the parliament votes.

EU has also said that this applies right up to 11pm on 29 March. Parliament could potentially be called to an emergency session at 10pm on that day and A50 could be revoked.

Thanks for that clarification. I had a vague recollection she couldn't just get on the phone and say, "It's off," but with all the crap flying here and there, I wasn't sure.

What's your thoughts on this? Do you think that will happen? I just can't wrap my head around all the fannying about that's going on, if there are genuinely enough MPs intent on halting the crash out. Maybe cliff hangers like this are good for murder mysteries, but not for politics.

 

[danny la rouge]

Nobody on this thread seems to know. I bet Pickers could tell you though.

And to think killer b said this would stop being funny.

 

[CRI]

A Communication Director using the 'grocer's apostrophe'. For shame.

Maybe went to the Hope Hicks college of communications!

 

[killer b]

I don't think it ever started tbf

 

[Flavour]

That would be funny if the EU refused an extension request. I doubt it would be because of Lega nord though. They all know an extension is pointless while may is in charge

 

[Winot]

- The UK revokes Article 50. This doesn't require agreement of the other EU nations. We're in such a constitutional mess that I'm not sure whether May can just do this unilaterally on behalf of the Government, or requires the agreement of Parliament. If it's the latter, well, I wouldn't put much money on it happening.

My understanding is that it's not just revoking Art. 50 that's needed but also revoking the EU (Withdrawal) Act 2018, which will require Parliamentary approval.

 

[Pickman's model]

Banks must love the idea that he's some kind of machiavelian evil genius who can get national governments to do his bidding.

tbh he doesn't seem to have much luck with hmg

 

[Pickman's model]

My understanding is that it's not just revoking Art. 50 that's needed but also revoking the EU (Withdrawal) Act 2018, which will require Parliamentary approval.

if they revoke the one i doubt they will hesitate to repeal the other

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Thanks for that clarification. I had a vague recollection she couldn't just get on the phone and say, "It's off," but with all the crap flying here and there, I wasn't sure.

What's your thoughts on this? Do you think that will happen? I just can't wrap my head around all the fannying about that's going on, if there are genuinely enough MPs intent on halting the crash out. Maybe cliff hangers like this are good for murder mysteries, but not for politics.

As I said earlier, the only prediction I'm prepared to make at the moment is that an extension will be requested and that it will be granted. Beyond that I really don't know. I do think that a big majority today against 'no deal' (which I think is probable) would make it very hard indeed for parliament to vote against a motion brought by the govt to revoke A50. How this or a different govt gets to the position where it asks parliament to revoke A50, I don't know: once it is properly staring at the abyss, as someone else said, a fair few things become possible.

 

[Cid]

With a majority of 50+, she could have pushed through a deal without ERG support. I think that was her plan with calling that election - judging that a majority of 12 wasn't enough to get any deal through. But without any majority at all, that plan went up in smoke. It's one of the many absurdities that she's just blundered on without a hope of success. I can only assume that she hoped Labour would split on the issue and help her out. I don't see what other idea she might have had.

Like I said I don’t really care about the counterfactual element. What I was getting at is that a50 revoke, or a long-term withdrawal agreement will (potentially) require either a form of non-revocable constitutional law, or enough cross party agreement to make it meaningful. Whereas no deal just requires ongoing incompetence.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

If parliament votes against a no deal, then the EU says no to an extension, parliament will have 2 choices, withdraw A50 or vote again on the no-deal option and get enough MPs to vote the other way.

If I were the EU, I'd bet the fucking house on A50 withdrawal.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Like I said I don’t really care about the counterfactual element. What I was getting at is that a50 revoke, or a long-term withdrawal agreement will (potentially) require either a form of non-revocable constitutional law, or enough cross party agreement to make it meaningful. Whereas no deal just requires ongoing incompetence.

Not really. A50 revoke requires one motion in parliament with one vote. Everything else is detail - once it's been revoked, everything that was due to change on 29 March is just cancelled. It will need to be postponed with an extension anyway.

There would be lots of detail - Euro elections would need to be arranged for starters - but that doesn't all have to be done first for A50 to be withdrawn.

 

[Zapp Brannigan]

If parliament votes against a no deal, then the EU says no to an extension, parliament will have 2 choices, withdraw A50 or vote again on the no-deal option and get enough MPs to vote the other way.

If I were the EU, I'd bet the fucking house on A50 withdrawal.

Or vote yet again on the deal option. Repeat daily until enough MPs are panicked into submission (ERG by the threat of A50 withdrawal, everyone else by the threat of no deal), leave with a deal that originally lost In parliament by a record amount and has had no changes worth mentioning. Celebrate democracy in action.

 

[Pickman's model]

As I said earlier, the only prediction I'm prepared to make at the moment is that an extension will be requested and that it will be granted. Beyond that I really don't know. I do think that a big majority today against 'no deal' (which I think is probable) would make it very hard indeed for parliament to vote against a motion brought by the govt to revoke A50. How this or a different govt gets to the position where it asks parliament to revoke A50, I don't know: once it is properly staring at the abyss, as someone else said, a fair few things become possible.

quoted because as things stand no extension will be agreed

 

[Cid]

Not really. A50 revoke requires one motion in parliament with one vote. Everything else is detail - once it's been revoked, everything that was due to change on 29 March is just cancelled. It will need to be postponed with an extension anyway.

There would be lots of detail - Euro elections would need to be arranged for starters - but that doesn't all have to be done first for A50 to be withdrawn.

You don’t think they might want some kind of agreement that prevents us from leaving again say the next time a GE comes around?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

You don’t think they might want some kind of agreement that prevents us from leaving again say the next time a GE comes around?

Who's they? If you mean the EU then no.

 

[kebabking]

quoted because as things stand no extension will be agreed

I'm not so sure about that - I think that while the EU will take the view that an extension of, say, 3 months is a bit of a waste of time and we'll be back in exactly the same place, they will also not want to be seen as the bad guy.

If the UK government asks for an extension and the EU says no, then that would be seen as being a massive slap in face to those who wanted a deal with the EU. The next PM, or even May, would be politically bound to give a massive FUCK YOU to the EU and remain/rejoin support would hit the floor.

For the sake of a couple of months delay the EU can look like patient grown ups - which helps the REF2.0 crowd - and causes chaos in the brexiteers. I'd be astonished if they refuse....

 

[Cid]

Who's they? If you mean the EU then no.

Obviously. I suppose the govt might get away with it given the advantages to the eu of revoking. But it is a weird situation.

 

[CRI]

Like I said I don’t really care about the counterfactual element. What I was getting at is that a50 revoke, or a long-term withdrawal agreement will (potentially) require either a form of non-revocable constitutional law, or enough cross party agreement to make it meaningful. Whereas no deal just requires ongoing incompetence.

This is what worries me. I'm an optimist by nature, but one thing the current government and opposition seem really good at is incompetence. Unless that's all just a show, we're banking on them suddenly becoming incredibly competent, decisive and putting party politics aside - all within the next 16 days. It's a big ask.

Remember, the default remains leaving with No Deal on 29th March, unless specific action is taken to stop that. It's not a straight either or choice.

 

[SpackleFrog]

I'm not so sure about that - I think that while the EU will take the view that an extension of, say, 3 months is a bit of a waste of time and we'll be back in exactly the same place, they will also not want to be seen as the bad guy.

If the UK government asks for an extension and the EU says no, then that would be seen as being a massive slap in face to those who wanted a deal with the EU. The next PM, or even May, would be politically bound to give a massive FUCK YOU to the EU and remain/rejoin support would hit the floor.

For the sake of a couple of months delay the EU can look like patient grown ups - which helps the REF2.0 crowd - and causes chaos in the brexiteers. I'd be astonished if they refuse....

Imagine if they were magnanimous enough to let us have two short extensions. Nothing would have changed but they'd look so reasonable.

 

[CRI]

I'm not so sure about that - I think that while the EU will take the view that an extension of, say, 3 months is a bit of a waste of time and we'll be back in exactly the same place, they will also not want to be seen as the bad guy.

If the UK government asks for an extension and the EU says no, then that would be seen as being a massive slap in face to those who wanted a deal with the EU. The next PM, or even May, would be politically bound to give a massive FUCK YOU to the EU and remain/rejoin support would hit the floor.

For the sake of a couple of months delay the EU can look like patient grown ups - which helps the REF2.0 crowd - and causes chaos in the brexiteers. I'd be astonished if they refuse....

It's still 27 separate nations that have to agree it, even if leadership within the EU is pushing them hard.

If the UK government is serious about potentially wanting an extension, shouldn't they starting a charm offensive with the EU27, especially those most likely to be lukewarm on the matter? Taking an extension for granted is seriously stupid, if that's what they're banking on to save their bacon.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

I'm not so sure about that - I think that while the EU will take the view that an extension of, say, 3 months is a bit of a waste of time and we'll be back in exactly the same place, they will also not want to be seen as the bad guy.

If the UK government asks for an extension and the EU says no, then that would be seen as being a massive slap in face to those who wanted a deal with the EU. The next PM, or even May, would be politically bound to give a massive FUCK YOU to the EU and remain/rejoin support would hit the floor.

For the sake of a couple of months delay the EU can look like patient grown ups - which helps the REF2.0 crowd - and causes chaos in the brexiteers. I'd be astonished if they refuse....

Would agree under normal times, but the EU is facing a whole heap of extra shit in the coming months that has nothing to do with Brexit. It's either kick it down the road for a minimum 2 years, or get it finished now. Is what I reckon, who sodding knows, with the bunch of cunts running the shitshow on both sides anything is possible.

 

[SpackleFrog]

I'm an optimist by nature

Are you bollocks you love nothing more than predicting impending disaster

 

[Pickman's model]

If the UK government asks for an extension and the EU says no, then that would be seen as being a massive slap in face to those who wanted a deal with the EU.

tosh. AS THINGS STAND there is nothing further to discuss, because of all the red lines may has set out. if she said, i'm removing this red line and that red line, THEN you'd see the eu agree an extension. if the government asks for an extension now, the eu would, indeed have, said there's nothing further to talk about because there has been a deal negotiated and it's up to the uk to come up with fresh proposals.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Would agree under normal times, but the EU is facing a whole heap of extra shit in the coming months that has nothing to do with Brexit. It's either kick it down the road for a minimum 2 years, or get it finished now. Is what I reckon, who sodding knows, with the bunch of cunts running the shitshow on both sides anything is possible.

Good point but might just increase their desire to seem reasonable.

 

[Sue]

Whereas no deal just requires ongoing incompetence.

At last, something they've got covered.

 

[SpackleFrog]

tosh. AS THINGS STAND there is nothing further to discuss, because of all the red lines may has set out. if she said, i'm removing this red line and that red line, THEN you'd see the eu agree an extension. if the government asks for an extension now, the eu would, indeed have, said there's nothing further to talk about because there has been a deal negotiated and it's up to the uk to come up with fresh proposals.

Sure but they will say the red lines have to be altered, they will be and then they will agree an extension.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Nikki Morgan saying that if votes tonight and tomorrow go against May the cabinet will "have to have a conversation as to whether her position is tenable".

 

[killer b]

The vote tonight is a free vote isn't it? How could it go against May?