BREXIT Crunch time (part 38) WTF is going to happen next?

[brogdale]

Not seen it broken down yet.

They all voted against the deal (with Labour).

 

[killer b]

I heard they all voted against.

 

[brogdale]

I heard they all voted against.

No, they all voted against.
let's hope that's cleared it up?

 

[Pickman's model]

Not seen it broken down yet.

try post 631

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

this is cute.

You have a better plan? Preferably one that doesn’t involve the word “democracy”.

 

[danny la rouge]

How did the Tinge party vote?

 

[killer b]

You have a better plan? Preferably one that doesn’t involve the word “democracy”.

I don't have a plan - what would be the point? My prediction on what's likely to happen - fwiw - is still that things will eventually settle on some kind of Norway-ish compromise (although I wouldn't be surprised if May's deal eventually goes through, or there's an accidental no deal crash out, or even - though this is the least likely to my mind - a second referendum). The one thing I'm confident of is that there won't be a unilateral withdrawal of A50 though. That is unicorns.

 

[brogdale]

How did the Tinge party vote?

Independently, with Labour!

 

[brogdale]

Independently, with Labour!

What, all of them?

 

[8ball]

What, all of them?

Some of them, at least.

 

[brogdale]

Some of them, at least.

Less than 12, though.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I don't have a plan - what would be the point? My prediction on what's likely to happen - fwiw - is still that things will eventually settle on some kind of Norway-ish compromise (although I wouldn't be surprised if May's deal eventually goes through, or there's an accidental no deal crash out, or even - though this is the least likely to my mind - a second referendum). The one thing I'm confident of is that there won't be a unilateral withdrawal of A50 though. That is unicorns.

shows how confusing this all is. I judge no deal crash out to be the unicorns scenario. Withdrawing A50 would happen first. A really big majority today against no deal, which I think is possible, may start turning the tide on certain matters.

 

[SpackleFrog]

shows how confusing this all is. I judge no deal crash out to be the unicorns scenario. Withdrawing A50 would happen first. A really big majority today against no deal, which I think is possible, may start turning the tide on certain matters.

I think they're both unicorns because Parliament won't allow No Deal and May won't withdraw A50. There will be an extension, and possibly another one, until May goes and I don't see her being replaced with someone who will go for No Deal.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I think they're both unicorns because Parliament won't allow No Deal and May won't withdraw A50. There will be an extension, and possibly another one, until May goes and I don't see her being replaced with someone who will go for No Deal.

Oh, well my prediction fwiw is an extension. And that's all I'm prepared to predict at this stage. That ought to be accompanied by May resigning, but we've been there before. May is now the blockage in this whole process.

 

[killer b]

Parliamentary arithmatic and the need to hold the conservative party together is the blockage. May just happens to be the person at the top right now.

 

[Winot]

Oh, well my prediction fwiw is an extension. And that's all I'm prepared to predict at this stage. That ought to be accompanied by May resigning, but we've been there before. May is now the blockage in this whole process.

Agree on all counts. Can't see the EU not allowing an extension. The interesting question is what happens when we ask for a 2nd extension.

 

[Winot]

It has been pointed out this morning that in pursuit of an independent trade policy the UK is heading for a no deal in which it puts up tariffs. The price of an imported family car will go up by about £1500. Oh - except if the dealer imports it from IE into NI and then sends it to the UK.

 

[brogdale]

Parliamentary arithmatic and the need to hold the conservative party together is the blockage. May just happens to be the person at the top right now.

Exactly; hence her backing down this am to the ERG about a free vote on Malthouse.

 

[Cid]

Thing is how do you get certainty into any of this? I mean the way our constitution functions effectively requires that we have a strong cross party agreement, and that support for it is ongoing. And there really doesn’t seem any chance of that at the moment.

 

[8ball]

I judge no deal crash out to be the unicorns scenario.

I thought the unicorns had been indefinitely detained at Calais.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Thing is how do you get certainty into any of this? I mean the way our constitution functions effectively requires that we have a strong cross party agreement, and that support for it is ongoing. And there really doesn’t seem any chance of that at the moment.

The process was doomed the moment the 2017 election results were announced. I suspect that May has known this all along. But she's blundered on regardless, doing exactly what she was planning to do with the majority of 50-80 that she expected.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Parliamentary arithmatic and the need to hold the conservative party together is the blockage. May just happens to be the person at the top right now.

Sure but you need an election to change the arithmetic.

 

[rubbershoes]

Less than 12, though.

Fewer

 

[killer b]

Sure but you need an election to change the arithmetic.

yes, that's right.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Fewer

no such rule. unless its another diktat from brussels i was previously unaware of.

 

[FabricLiveBaby!]

There was a flow chart posted on one of the other threads about Brexit outcome likely hood. Can anyone find it?

 

[Pickman's model]

There was a flow chart posted on one of the other threads about Brexit outcome likely hood. Can anyone find it?

here's a new one from the bbc

 

[Pickman's model]

The process was doomed the moment

may took over

 

[FabricLiveBaby!]

So despite all the farting about we're no clearer on anything than the day after Brexit vote.

 

[Cid]

The process was doomed the moment the 2017 election results were announced. I suspect that May has known this all along. But she's blundered on regardless, doing exactly what she was planning to do with the majority of 50-80 that she expected.

Even then it would have been pretty marginal surely... I mean on pure numbers she’d still be losing. Though of course many other factors would be in play, which is why counterfactuals are a bit crap.

The broader point being that any future government that does have a significant majority can just piss any marginal agreement up the wall... were I negotiating for the eu, I’d be somewhat worried about that. Far as I can see the only option that doesn’t involve the eu asking for some significant changes to how our constitution works is crashing out. Unless you got a strong cross party consensus.