Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
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BREXIT Crunch time (part 38) WTF is going to happen next?
- Thread starter Kaka Tim
- Start date
Yossarian
⏭️
It's probably worth staying in until we get a competent government capable of delivering a version of Brexit that people can agree on - or until the movement of tectonic plates smashes Europe into other continents and renders the whole thing obsolete, whichever happens first.
chilango
Hypothetical Wanker
My gut feeling is that Brexit is now finished.
The CBI etc. are beginning to come out into the open.
Few MPs really want Brexit, even the ERG types would prefer to remain and have a cause than accept a watered to Brino.
It's just a case at the moment of nobody wanting to take responsibility for pulling the plug on democracy.
The CBI etc. are beginning to come out into the open.
Few MPs really want Brexit, even the ERG types would prefer to remain and have a cause than accept a watered to Brino.
It's just a case at the moment of nobody wanting to take responsibility for pulling the plug on democracy.
chilango
Hypothetical Wanker
The one posh people talk about on the telly
Maybe a raffish state.
ska invita
back on the other side
In bed? if only...
planetgeli
There's no future in England's dreaming
toblerone3
Grrrrr
At least they've solved the Northern Island border issue. How to cut tariffs without installing a hard border. They are going to use a temporary 'honesty box' system. However I'm not sure if its going to work in practice even in the short term. There is a small possibility that it could be exploited by smugglers.
No tariffs for Irish goods going to NI
No tariffs for Irish goods going to NI
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
I think smugglers who had something like 75 years plus dealing with a hard border will have no difficulty with post-29/3 arrangements
MrCurry
right after this urgent rest
Assuming “no deal” is rejected in today’s vote and tomorrow’s vote in favour of an extension passes, I guess we have a week of discussions with the EU before their answer comes back, and if it’s as negative as some on here suggest then with just over a week to Brexit day, the choices will be:
1) put the May deal to another vote and pass it
2) ignore today’s vote and go for “no deal Brexit” regardless
3) withdraw A50, have a bit of a think, election, referendum or whatever and come back next year to start the fun all over again
And even if they do give an extension and it’s taken up by the UK, the choices above still apply, just maybe 2 months down the line.
I can’t see how (3) can be justified to the public, and I believe there are more opposed to “no deal” than are opposed to May’s deal (we will find out later), so regardless of the vote yesterday I still expect May to get her deal through at the last minute when the other options have evaporated.
1) put the May deal to another vote and pass it
2) ignore today’s vote and go for “no deal Brexit” regardless
3) withdraw A50, have a bit of a think, election, referendum or whatever and come back next year to start the fun all over again
And even if they do give an extension and it’s taken up by the UK, the choices above still apply, just maybe 2 months down the line.
I can’t see how (3) can be justified to the public, and I believe there are more opposed to “no deal” than are opposed to May’s deal (we will find out later), so regardless of the vote yesterday I still expect May to get her deal through at the last minute when the other options have evaporated.
Moonrakers plc.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
denizens of wiltshire? wtf?
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
the other 1 (or is it 2?) confused
chilango
Hypothetical Wanker
Did they? Which ones voted for May?
SpackleFrog
Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
Presumably there is some way of May tabling her deal with a clause that says if it's voted down again A50 will be revoked. Then MP's would be faced with a simple choice between cancelling Brexit or leaving on the terms of May's deal, and if they chose to vote the deal down again May could then blame Parliament for the failure to Brexit.
I don't know if I think May would have the confidence to do that, especially after all her various defeats - it could be a workable strategy especially after Parliament has voted to rule out no deal, but I think she'd probably be too worried that she would be blamed for it then she'd be removed and forever after be remembered as the PM who fucked up Brexit. Alternatively her deal is so manifestly hated by everyone if it got through she might have the same problem.
I think that's what I would do if I were May (ugh) and I really believed her deal was the best way. But probably not what she will do.
And renowned for their panache for smuggling.
SpackleFrog
Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
Serious? Got a link?
Her darling buddies.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
yeh i can't see people from wiltshire being quite so good at smuggling in the six counties as they may be in england, being as their accents would stand out a mile in places like fermanagh, tyrone and of course south armagh
Monkeygrinder's Organ
Dodgy geezer swilling vapid lager
Could someone else not table an amendment to that telling her to jog on, which would then get voted through and make her look like an idiot again?
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
For that to work, May would need to work out how to manoeuvre someone, presumably Labour, into taking the fall for it, then the Tories would need to work out how to not become the party to vote for to get Brexit back. And then if there’s no home for Leavers, that opens space for the far right.
I think May’s government has to just keep stumbling forward, offering a version of a deal nobody wants. I can’t work out how they think they can do anything else.
If today parliament votes to reject the idea of No Deal, then they need to find an acceptable deal (acceptable to parliament and the EU) before any deadline, however extended. That doesn’t seem possible with this parliament. The only logical way to hope to fix that is to hold a general election in the hope that this shakes up the numbers in parliament enough. Which May already tried, but got worse arithmetic than she’d started with.
But even though the Tory membership is pretty Leavey, the pool of Tory candidates is going to be like the pool of MPs: looking for ways to please the CBI, the BCC, and so on. They’re pretty Remainy.
I don’t know what move anyone can make.
the only breakdown I can find is here, which has them all voting against.
SpackleFrog
Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
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