BREXIT Crunch time (part 38) WTF is going to happen next?

[danny la rouge]

I find it hard to imagine this parliament agreeing to any deal particularly if any extension has to be short.An election would be nice but not entirely sure that would alter the picture much.

This is the thing, isn’t it? What if we got another close run parliament? What would be solved?

 

[Duncan2]

No deal perhaps the only thing thinkable right now??

 

[killer b]

I think the current parliamentary makeup is almost perfectly balanced for stalemate. A few more in any direction (enough to jettison the DUP, mainly) and a lot more options would open up. It'd still be difficult, but not impossible like it is now...

 

[Idris2002]

Yes, but seeing him reminds me I must buy some Brillo pads.

And a vest.

 

[planetgeli]

No deal perhaps the only thing thinkable right now??

Nope. Voted down tomorrow night.

Increasingly looking like soft Brexit/ no Brexit.

 

[Pickman's model]

No deal perhaps the only thing thinkable right now??

Think again

 

[Winot]

Nope. Voted down tomorrow night.

Increasingly looking like soft Brexit/ no Brexit.

Parliament voting down no deal doesn’t stop no deal.

 

[brogdale]

Parliament voting down no deal doesn’t stop no deal.

Correct; only 2 ways to stop it...convince 27 to give more time or revoke A50.

 

[Duncan2]

Nope. Voted down tomorrow night.

Increasingly looking like soft Brexit/ no Brexit.

Yeah but that assumes that this parliament can actually agree on something quite specific in what surely has to be a short time-frame-and I think we can rule out no Brexit?

 

[brogdale]

Yeah but that assumes that this parliament can actually agree on something quite specific in what surely has to be a short time-frame-and I think we can rule out no Brexit?

Think Parliament will vote for an extension, but whether or not the 27 play ball, or at what cost is the real question. All power with the suprastate.

 

[Pickman's model]

Yeah but that assumes that this parliament can actually agree on something quite specific in what surely has to be a short time-frame-and I think we can rule out no Brexit?

We can rule out ruling things out

 

[planetgeli]

The EU, specifically Germany, do not need convincing to give us more time. They don’t want us to leave. They are quite prepared to watch us cringe back with our tails between our legs. Things are heading towards more no full leave than no deal Brexit.

 

[Duncan2]

We can rule out ruling things out

You're probably right but at this juncture it would be sooo taking the piss.

 

[Pickman's model]

You're probably right but at this juncture it would be sooo taking the piss.

You won't believe the piss taking you're going to witness in the next 17 days

 

[Winot]

The really interesting (=horrific) scenario is that Parliament votes down no deal tomorrow and then votes down an extension on Thursday.

I’m not expecting that however. I also think it’s very unlikely the EU will turn down an extension request, despite their faux-highhanded rhetoric.

But what happens if the extension is only until 22 May? Robert Peston reckons we are heading for no deal in late May/June. He could be right.

 

[danny la rouge]

Correct; only 2 ways to stop it...convince 27 to give more time or revoke A50.

Yup. Otherwise, the only way to not have no deal is to have a deal. Which they just voted against.

 

[Pickman's model]

Yup. Otherwise, the only way to not have no deal is to have a deal. Which they just voted against.

It'll be peer over the no deal abyss and revoke a.50

 

[Puddy_Tat]

Yup. Otherwise, the only way to not have no deal is to have a deal. Which they just voted against.

i think i understand...

 

[Sprocket.]

We can rule out ruling things out

Overruled.

 

[Kaka Tim]

emerging consensus from commentators is that May will try to get 3 month extension and use that cliff edge as a way to force her deal through again (ffs ..).
Parliament may not allow this - as its massively taking the piss.

 

[agricola]

emerging consensus from commentators is that May will try to get 3 month extension and use that cliff edge as a way to force her deal through again (ffs ..).
Parliament may not allow this - as its massively taking the piss.

She absolutely could force this deal through - but that would mean plausibly threatening to back either a second referendum or, more likely, threatening to revoke Article 50 itself. The ERG and the DUP are the ones who have to be talked around, not anyone else, and the only way she could do that is to threaten to destroy the party.

I'd be amazed if they went for (and got) an extension on those grounds though, as she could do all that this week.

 

[killer b]

emerging consensus from commentators

which commentators?

 

[Wilf]

We seem to be a world away from when farage and Johnson were saying the EU would be desperate to give us great trade deals and the rest. On Thursday we will be pleading 'please will you let us stay a bit longer so that we can have another go at agreeing that deal you offered us months ago'. lol

 

[gosub]

I quite liked
Theresa May’s Brexit lost to the ultimate adversary: reality | Rafael Behr

HOWEVER

It was kinda dwarfed by A quantum experiment suggests there’s no such thing as objective reality


We are up to our arse in Nietzsche however the darts team is disinterested so I shall seek solice in another pint and stick Happy days toy town on the juke box

 

[Wilf]

Tusk already having his fun saying he will need to hear a 'credible reason' (for an extension):
Donald Tusk: UK must have a credible reason to delay Brexit
'Say pretty please'.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

She absolutely could force this deal through - but that would mean plausibly threatening to back either a second referendum or, more likely, threatening to revoke Article 50 itself.

Would that work, though? Surely revoking A50 is something a lot of MPs want. They just don't want to be the ones to actually do it.

I think tomorrow's no deal vote may show something. Whipped, it would have been a narrow majority to reject no deal. Unwhipped, it might be a very large majority to reject no deal. That might be an indicator of the number of MPs who really, secretly or otherwise, just want brexit to go away.

 

[Ax^]

and this show of cunts are still ahead in public polling

 

[littlebabyjesus]

and this show of cunts are still ahead in public polling

I've listened to bits on World Service about this today, and it has been very marked that nearly all those interviewed have been tories. Labour has barely been mentioned. In a way you can see why - it is a tory split that's made this mess happen (I think with a united tory party, the DUP would have been under massive pressure to fall in line). But it leaves Labour rather out in the cold. Whatever they say just isn't reported,

 

[gosub]

We seem to be a world away from when farage and Johnson were saying the EU would be desperate to give us great trade deals and the rest. On Thursday we will be pleading 'please will you let us stay a bit longer so that we can have another go at agreeing that deal you offered us months ago'. lol

we'd probably win a bad faith so bit dopey knowing that to sign up to relying on it

 

[Ax^]

tbh i heard that the ERG are now towing the line with the DUP

A party that does not even speak for its own constitutes in the north, have a corrupt leader and have not had a assembly in many a year

just wtf is going on with the Tory party