BREXIT Crunch time (part 38) WTF is going to happen next?

[Pickman's model]

Logans run here we come.

you've edited and now my post looks silly

 

[SpackleFrog]

Thank you, I wasn't sure you'd find it funny.

Not you. Him.

 

[Wilf]

Seems we will be offered an extension to end of 2019 .EU know May is a gonna around that time.

Can go two ways-Customs arrangement with confirmatory referendum backed by Government and Labour or new Tory leader going for no deal if domestic talks fail.

Former can pass westminster but could fall in confirmatory referendum-ERG,Brexit party ,Ukip,Tommy saying tell them again.

New tory leader going for no deal calls general election if it wont pass westminster.

General election may not change parliamentary arithmetic much but woukd be followed by demand for new scottish referendum.

I'm trying to work out what being offered and accepting an extension till Dec 31st implies. Does it mean the current plan of 'Lab and Con meeting > if that fails going back to more indicative votes' falls? Certainly a 9 month delay provides times for everything and nothing to happen, from 2nd ref through to new tory leader and gen election.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I'm trying to work out what being offered and accepting an extension till Dec 31st implies. Does it mean the current plan of 'Lab and Con meeting > if that fails going back to more indicative votes' falls? Certainly a 9 month delay provides times for everything and nothing to happen, from 2nd ref through to new tory leader and gen election.

Sensible thing to happen would be for the current govt to admit failure and call a general election.

So I guess they'll try to do anything other than that.

 

[andysays]

Sensible thing to happen would be for the current govt to admit failure and call a general election.

So I guess they'll try to do anything other than that.

Sensible how and for whom?

 

[Wilf]

Tories are so incompetent that even if it gets to Men In Grey Suits time, they will probably get the wrong house and evict the tenant of 11 Downing Street.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Tories are so incompetent that even if it gets to Men In Grey Suits time, they will probably get the wrong house and evict the tenant of 11 Downing Street.

Or, worst, the no. 10 cat.

 

[Wilf]

Or, worst, the no. 10 cat.

They could have a go at Assange.

 

[Sprocket.]

I’m waiting to see Perfidious Albion step onto the pitch.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Sensible how and for whom?

Seems sensible for a govt that cannot govern to seek an election.

 

[Wilf]

I’m waiting to see Perfidious Albion step onto the pitch.

Fans drinking pints of St Crispin's Ale in the stands.

Actually, there should be a line of Brexit branded beers:

'Drink 52% - guaranteed free movement!'
Old Barnier's Backstop
mv4 IPA

 

[Cid]

Seems sensible for a govt that cannot govern to seek an election.

Only if there’s a likelihood of a government more capable of governing being elected.

 

[andysays]

Seems sensible for a govt that cannot govern to seek an election.

Sensible how and for whom?

 

[Pickman's model]

Seems sensible for a govt that cannot govern to seek an election.

yeh that's really on the cards

2/3 majority of hoc to get a ge, in't it. do you think the tory party would let may go for what promises to be an even more disastrous election than the last one?

 

[gosub]

Seems sensible for a govt that cannot govern to seek an election.

So that's that option junked.


If she barricades herself in Number 10 for a couple of months, she will have lasted longer than Brown. Which seems like an absurd set of motivations so I'd give that 3/2

 

[andysays]

yeh that's really on the cards

2/3 majority of hoc to get a ge, in't it. do you think the tory party would let may go for what promises to be an even more disastrous election than the last one?

"Sensible"...

 

[Pickman's model]

Only if there’s a likelihood of a government more capable of governing being elected.

yeh and there's where lbj's plot falls down. we haven't really had a government capable of governing since 2010, it's all be a drift since then. not that brown was grand, he wasn't. but he could get stuff through parliament which is more than the current shower can.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Only if there’s a likelihood of a government more capable of governing being elected.

This govt can't govern. It can't get through the only thing it's really every tried to do. Thats all that can be known right now. Who knows what a new govt would be like or able to do? In the system here, having an election is the mechanism by which you find out.

 

[Wilf]

Seems sensible for a govt that cannot govern to seek an election.

May's position has gone from weak to an outright joke since the 2017 election. Strange thing is, even though she seems utterly unable to do the one things for which she was elected, the forces arraigned against her, particularly in her own party, leave her in office. We'll see what the reaction is if we end up taking the 9 month extension, particularly if there are conditions about good behaviour attached. That really should be the point where brexiteers resign from the cabinet and other ministerial roles. But they do seem particularly shit at moving against her.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

"Sensible"...

Sensible in the context of the system in this country, yes. Sensible for a government that cannot govern to call an election in this system. But no doubt you've made up a bunch of stuff I didn't say to accuse me of.

 

[Pickman's model]

But they do seem particularly shit at moving against her.

even our plotters are a national disgrace

 

[gosub]

Sensible in the context of the system in this country, yes. Sensible for a government that cannot govern to call an election in this system. But no doubt you've made up a bunch of stuff I didn't say to accuse me of.

You have to have sense to do sensible things

 

[littlebabyjesus]

May's position has gone from weak to an outright joke since the 2017 election. Strange thing is, even though she seems utterly unable to do the one things for which she was elected, the forces arraigned against her, particularly in her own party, leave her in office. We'll see what the reaction is if we end up taking the 9 month extension, particularly if there are conditions about good behaviour attached. That really should be the point where brexiteers resign from the cabinet and other ministerial roles. But they do seem particularly shit at moving against her.

It ought to be, yes. I can't see how May survives, but then I've been saying that for a while.

 

[Wilf]

even our plotters are a national disgrace

We probably need to improve the standard of Henchmen in this country. Maybe set up an FE qualification for them or a national registration scheme.

 

[Pickman's model]

We probably need to improve the standard of Henchmen in this country. Maybe set up an FE qualification for them or a national registration scheme.

the current self-regulation certainly isn't working

 

[cupid_stunt]

even our plotters are a national disgrace

A tradition dating back to Guy Fawkes.

 

[Cid]

This govt can't govern. It can't get through the only thing it's really every tried to do. Thats all that can be known right now. Who knows what a new govt would be like or able to do? In the system here, having an election is the mechanism by which you find out.

It is very likely to result in a hung parliament or slim majority. Even with a majority there’s the internal factional problems that would absolutely continue to make it difficult to pass legislation. In that context it makes complete sense to have cross party talks, with potential further referendum.

I think May is an appalling choice to do this of course, I mean it should have been on the cards from mv1, if not the election. But it does make sense to an extent.

 

[andysays]

Sensible in the context of the system in this country, yes. Sensible for a government that cannot govern to call an election in this system. But no doubt you've made up a bunch of stuff I didn't say to accuse me of.

I'm just asking you to expand on your assertion than it would be sensible for the government to seek an election.

Sensible how and for whom?

 

[Pickman's model]

I'm just asking you to expand on your assertion than it would be sensible for the government to seek an election.

Sensible how and for whom?

he's not being as liberal with his answers as he is with his politics.

 

[gosub]

I'm just asking you to expand on your assertion than it would be sensible for the government to seek an election.

Sensible how and for whom?

Could just change the locks while she's out of town today