With all due respect, there are I think think one or two generalisations that need qualifying. First off while there was the appearance of capitalist 'boom', in reality as we all now know it was credit fuelled rather than real growth. For the majority a chimera. A significant point I will return to. Meanwhile there is no evidence that the BNP is collapsing because it cannnot deliver. The internal problems were evident long before the cuts (many of which are yet to be implemented, or fully felt). One of the key points in the Filling the Vacuum was the prediction that the 'BNP would control their own destiny - and that of their opponents'. Nothing has happened to change that.
Moreover the idea previously advanced that these problems are sort of inevitable once the British far-right reach a certain plateau seems rather smug and complacent. There are a host of countries where the BNP political kith and kin are regularly taking 20 per cent of the vote nationally. Are all these countries more right-wing, or traditionally more prone to violence than Britain? I don't think so. Equally how many times have the FN been written only to bounce back - they were only recently topping opinion polls - because the political vacuum was not filled?
I would suggest that the BNP are lagging behind, almost uniquely in today's Europe, because the anti-fascist opposition in the shape of the ANL Mark 1 and later AFA dogged their every move for a generation. Arguably, no other right-wing movement in Europe has ever had to live under that kind of pressure from - the get go - and it takes its toll. Britian presntly has the appearance of being unique in Europe mainly because style of anti-fascism was unique in Europe.
Returning to a previous point, the credit crunch has not really hit yet. When it does the middle class rage, not just the rampaging lumpen we witnessed this week, will find a political home. And as former Blair adviser said when it does 'you don't want to be on the wrong side of it'. Will the centre really hold? Has government even democracy itself ever looked less potent? More than anyone it is surely the mainstream parties that are 'failing to deliver'. Who is best placed to benefit from society's decomposition? The BNP might be not currently be in the rudest of health but the far-right as a whole are at least thinking. The orthodox left have not advanced a new idea, tactic, much less stratgey in 40 years.
Finally the notion that the SWP are standing shoulder to shoulder with ethnic minorities is wrong on two counts. In my experience the SWP has never stood shoulder to shoulder with anyone with genuine intent. It is always and remains short term political self-interest. Also Muslims are hardly a traditional minority in Tower Hamlets. In the area the EDL want to demonstrate in the 'minorities' will be the overwhelming majority. There will be no cowering behind net curtains (or the equivalent) there. Far from it. The Muslims do not need the SWP. As was shown, with the ill-judged Respect experiment, it remains, and always was the other way round.
A number of important issues raised here : The last point first - Yes indeedy, the SWP are the ultimate in opportunism - so their call for mobilisation in the East End is their usual game -BUT it's still important for the , mainly White, Left to turn out to support ethnic minorities when all-white fascists ( or proto fascists like the EDL) organise marches in their communities - even if just to prove wrong the Islamic extremist claim to young Islamic men that all non Muslims are their automatic enemies.
Your major point however - that Britain is likely to witness the rise of a major party of the Extreme Right along the Lines of the French FN. I think the BNP has "missed the boat" I must say and isn't big enough to deliver anything tangible to their potential electorate now the post 2008 crisis is starting to bite.
However you could be right - the crisis may give the BNP or another new variation of the BNP a second wind - An impoverished middle class might go for the Far Right option in some numbers, and the fascists (in their semi respectable Poujadist guise) may then be able to stop infighting long enough to get some solid electoral success - not just a few poxy councillors in some limited wards.
But what then ? The British capitalist class, unlike in 1930's Germany, really don't want to buy ANY of the economic or immigration/labour entry or sentimental imperialistic policies the BNP are offering -and certainly don't need a street army to take on a non existent Left. So we currently have a reappearance of classic capitalist crisis , without a fightback from the working class - a historically unique situation. Which is why it's difficult to predict which way this will go as the crisis bites. The ruling class only climbs on the back of the fascist tiger when no other options are left. For an internationally integrated economy totally dependant on free labour supply, the UK capitalist class have no interest in fascist state autarky policies .
I think, as long as the Left and trades union movement remains essentially dormant, the ruling class will undermine and destroy the BNP, using all the tricks in their book, particularly if they start being electorally significant, or indeed or any other varient of the Far Right , and therefore they will be forced back on to the streets. But OK, this has a long way to go to play itself out, and therefore the Left , I think has to be both proactive on the streets against fascist, or proto-fascist, provocations when required, and ALSO be active in building an alternative at community level.
I just really think it's too early and too uncertain as to the future development of the Far Right to be too prescriptive about exactly how the Left should focus its energies as the story unfolds.
