Are we now in a new cold war?
- Thread starter Bingoman
- Start date
Rob Ray
Weight is meaningless
There's already a cold war between China and the US, it's currently in the "competing for spheres of influence alongside trade spats with menaces" stage. The Russian treaty comment was mostly just an acknowledgement of de facto reality with the US, in which a cold war already exists with elements of proxy hot war in Ukraine which has been used as a spur to escalate the re-militarisation of Western Europe.
Ax^
Silly Rabbit
2hats
Dust.
Despite suspending their co-operation (technically not possible - there is no provision under the treaty - not that the other signatory can do much about that), they have separately stated that they will continue to observe treaty deployment limits and continue to exchange notifications of ICBM and SLBM launches (such notifications are actually covered by a much older agreement, still intact and honoured, dating back to the late 80s).
Likely this suspension will affect inspection and verification, and probably various avenues of communication such as the compliance and implementation body (they had actually already unilaterally suspended on-site inspection half a year ago). It likely would also delay negotiation of the next arms control treaty.
Likely this suspension will affect inspection and verification, and probably various avenues of communication such as the compliance and implementation body (they had actually already unilaterally suspended on-site inspection half a year ago). It likely would also delay negotiation of the next arms control treaty.
RD2003
Got a really fucking shitty attitude
War in Ukraine defining new world order, says thinktank
Poll reveals west more united but gulf growing with countries such as India that do not subscribe to post-cold war view
'Almost a year after Russia’s war against Ukraine started, it has united the west, according to a 15-country survey – but exposed a widening gulf with the rest of the world that is defining the contours of a future global order.
The study, by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) thinktank, surveyed opinions in nine EU member states, including France, Germany and Poland, and in Britain and the US, as well as China, Russia, India and Turkey.
It revealed sharp geographical differences in attitudes to the war, democracy and the global balance of power, the authors said, suggesting Russia’s aggression may be a historic turning point marking the emergence of a “post-western” world order.'
“The paradox of the Ukraine war is that the west is both more united, and less influential in the world, than ever before,” said Mark Leonard, the thinktank’s director and a co-author of the report, based on polling carried out last month.'
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Saw some interesting stuff about Taiwan's importance in microchips Council Post: The Microchip War Requires Strategic Innovation To Win
That's where the real action will focus
That's where the real action will focus
_Russ_
Never not Knowingly Misunderstood
That last sentence rings true. The recent quite forthright talk from China describing the west as adversaries seems almost like something Putin would say and combined with the negative appraisals coming out of the US administration don't encourage a positive path, making the likelihood of China supplying arms to Russia seem a real possibility....then what happens?War in Ukraine defining new world order, says thinktank
Poll reveals west more united but gulf growing with countries such as India that do not subscribe to post-cold war viewwww.theguardian.com
'Almost a year after Russia’s war against Ukraine started, it has united the west, according to a 15-country survey – but exposed a widening gulf with the rest of the world that is defining the contours of a future global order.
The study, by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) thinktank, surveyed opinions in nine EU member states, including France, Germany and Poland, and in Britain and the US, as well as China, Russia, India and Turkey.
It revealed sharp geographical differences in attitudes to the war, democracy and the global balance of power, the authors said, suggesting Russia’s aggression may be a historic turning point marking the emergence of a “post-western” world order.'
“The paradox of the Ukraine war is that the west is both more united, and less influential in the world, than ever before,” said Mark Leonard, the thinktank’s director and a co-author of the report, based on polling carried out last month.'
_Russ_
Never not Knowingly Misunderstood
Saudi Arabia making noises that it wants to resume closer relationships with Iran, talks hosted by China....... Iran supplying Arms to Russia that are being used in the Ukraine invasion
Is the Middle East beginning to re-adjust ts alliances in the realisation that Western dominance is getting close to its end days?
Its been slowly edging that way for decades, but it feels like its accelerating right now, will that rate of change continue or is this just stuff that happens?
Is the Middle East beginning to re-adjust ts alliances in the realisation that Western dominance is getting close to its end days?
Its been slowly edging that way for decades, but it feels like its accelerating right now, will that rate of change continue or is this just stuff that happens?
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
I'm not sure that's the right way around - as the west uses less oil, it becomes less interested in the security of the gulf kingdoms (as well as a view forming that supporting them is more trouble than it's worth) and you can add the US's slaps on the wrisst of KSA for their brutality in Yemen to that general mood music, so KSA et al are starting to look outside their traditional 'partners' for their security.
I would add that KSA has always had an eye on an 'or else...' option - it's relationships with the west have never just been about being friends(ha!) with the west, but about not being friends with the Sovs. And to be be a realistic threat, they've always had to maintain a relationship with the Sovs/Ira/etc..
I would add that KSA has always had an eye on an 'or else...' option - it's relationships with the west have never just been about being friends(ha!) with the west, but about not being friends with the Sovs. And to be be a realistic threat, they've always had to maintain a relationship with the Sovs/Ira/etc..
not-bono-ever
meh
Potentially Leaning more towards China benefits both parties here. PRC doesn’t care where is oil comes from as long as it’s stable.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
you say that. but the security of the suez canal relies on the stability of the arab states, notably egypt and saudi arabia
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
It does, but that also falls under the 'is this more trouble than it's worth?' idea - would it be catastrophic if instead of having to maintain (almost) client relationships with these states in order to have safe passage through the Suez Canal, we simply put more fuel in our ships, sailed them round South Africa, and let the ME get on with it?
I think it's a bit simplistic, and ignores the ability of the ME to reach out and purely thinks about our need to reach in, but I think we need to address the elephant that if the ME matters a great deal less than it once did, do we need to be quite so involved in what goes on there...
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
if there's a desire to project power into the pacific then i suggest you do want the suez canal open. this doesn't mean the burden should fall entirely on eg the uk and usa. you'd have thought the people sending stuff (merchandise) through the canal would have as much interest in keeping things flowing as the people receiving it.
ska invita
back on the other side
Relevant (jokes about relevance of the green party accepted on a postcard only please)
bright-green.org
Green Party abandons opposition to NATO
The party now supports reform of the alliance
bright-green.org
Bingoman
Well-Known Member
Is that to make them more electable?Relevant (jokes about relevance of the green party accepted on a postcard only please)
Green Party abandons opposition to NATO
The party now supports reform of the alliance
ska invita
back on the other side
I doubt it's a cynical as that, I think it's a sign of the shift in public thinking about UK and the military... Aulde New cold war mentallity take over
RD2003
Got a really fucking shitty attitude
It isn't only right wingers like Peter Hitchens who have been pointing out that yesterday's CND types are now often enthusiastic NATO fans and enthusiasts for 'liberal interventionism..'
Sasaferrato
We've been together now for twenty years...
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
they're not worth as much as they used to be, hands off warnings.
ska invita
back on the other side
Tbf CND themselves are not of that position.
Idris2002
cavalcade of hubris
This has been building since the 1990s. At the time of the Kosovo war, there was a Doonesbury strip where the hippy character expresses his bemusement at the fact that they now had pro-war rallies. The persistent problem of human rights violations, including torture and sexual violence, commited by the forces sent to do the "liberal intervening" has rarely penetrated the consciousness of those who advocate "liberal interventionism".
RD2003
Got a really fucking shitty attitude
No. I was thinking more of the types who were once likely to support their aims.
Idris2002
cavalcade of hubris
With a few exceptions (the Cuba crisis, Able Archer, etc.) the Cold War was mainly stable, as the world settled around a bipolar division of the planet between two powers, one which was obviously much more powerful than the other.
We are now moving into a time of turbulence and uncertainty which has no real precedent in human history. It may not even be a "multipolar" world as such, as the persistence of multiple poles of power and hegemony (presumably across different regions) presupposes at least some degree of (relative) stability.
Then there's the global environmental crisis, which not even that mighty force the Green Party seems able to stop. That's going to be the wild card in all this.
We are now moving into a time of turbulence and uncertainty which has no real precedent in human history. It may not even be a "multipolar" world as such, as the persistence of multiple poles of power and hegemony (presumably across different regions) presupposes at least some degree of (relative) stability.
Then there's the global environmental crisis, which not even that mighty force the Green Party seems able to stop. That's going to be the wild card in all this.
_Russ_
Never not Knowingly Misunderstood
Isn't that pretty much the same for every country?, sure some pretend that the countries they don't deal with is because of moral factors but they always seem to be coincidently unstable countries anyway
TopCat
Putin fanboy
Loads of these types on urban. Add in the anti capitalist self identified posters, the ones with huge enthusiasm for that Uber capitalist organisation the EU and it’s time to scratch one’s head.
savoloysam
Pisces Moon
Yup.
Aukus deal: US, UK and Australia agree on nuclear submarine project
The US, UK and Australia say new nuclear-powered submarines will help ensure stability in the Pacific.
www.bbc.com
ska invita
back on the other side
The Iron Curtain was emblematic of The Cold War ....it will be interesting to see how hard and militarised the eastern european border becomes, particularly between Ukraine and Russia...Poland has already built its obscene wall with Belarus, which kind of shows how this line between 'empires'/power blocs was already there in the minds of the politicians in power
will this be resurrected? depends who is in the white house, but not hard to imagine
en.wikipedia.org
will this be resurrected? depends who is in the white house, but not hard to imagine
United States missile defense complex in Poland - Wikipedia
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savoloysam
Pisces Moon
Don't forget cold wars don't just involve military weapons etc these days there's a big battle being played out in the cyberwarfare field. See a channel on YouTube called darknet diaries for some crazy examples of the crazy stuff that goes on.
tim
EXPLODED TIM! (Help me!!!)
No it's just showing their true colours.
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