And next, Syria?

[butchersapron]

Druze leader saying eff the regime, christian leader saying the regime is their only shield. Regime splittage - bearing in mind what knotted posed above and with this excellent lay it out article to the fore. We need to know about these coalitions, how they're working (or not) why etc

 

[butchersapron]

Islamist coalition attack on idlib seems to be encountering very few setbacks - outposts/checkpoints etc all being taken very easily, reports of defections/desertions etc. I've learnt it'salways wise to wait on these things though...

 

[butchersapron]

What the regime loss of Idlib city might mean - militarily anyway:

In the city:

This will be a serious problem for the rebels in the coming weeks and months. If Idlib becomes the scene of public floggings and streetside executions of “immoral” women, such as the Nusra Front has committed elsewhere in Idlib Province, or if it collapses into a turf war between rival groups, it would not only weaken more moderate rebel factions – it would also provide Bashar al-Assad with an opportunity to turn military defeat into political gain.

As part of the wider war (a few others are suggested but this i can see as the immediate plan - attempting to get Hama to rise up is def in the longer term intentions as well though):

To the east, there is another very attractive target: the Abu Duhour air base. Capturing it would not only hobble Assad’s air campaign, it would also open up an area of coherent rebel control from the Turkish border to the desert south of Aleppo. In so doing, the rebels would also expose Assad’s only remaining supply line into Aleppo, a desperately improvised logistics trail through the rural towns of Khanaser and Sfeira that would be tremendously difficult to defend against multi-pronged attacks, especially if air cover falters. Under that scenario, the rebels could turn the tables on Assad in Aleppo, threatening his control over the city by cutting it off entirely from the rest of Syria.

 

[butchersapron]

Hama opens up for the non-ISIS islamist led rebels and suddenly ISIS re-appear being very aggressive around Hama.

 

[butchersapron]

Michael Karadjis has a new piece out - it's a direct response to another one from a while back but covers a hell of a lot of relevant background that it's always worth being reminded of (i'm halfway through it now). I would like to hear his thoughts - as one of the most vocal left supporters of the FSA and as someone who has argued that Nusra has effectively been entered en masse by FSA due simply to their superior weaponry - are on events in idlib over the last week.

Countering apologetics for the Baathist apocalypse: Once again, Assad regime responsible for sectarianism in Syria

 

[teqniq]

The Situation in Yarmouk Refugee Camp has Reached Catastrophic Levels

 

[butchersapron]

Secunder Kermani @SecKermani
Man shot in Wembley this morning. Apparently victim was anti Assad activist Sh Abdul Hadi Arwani although Met Police have not confirmed this

 

[butchersapron]

Wee bit more:
Man shot dead in Wembley believed to be former Syrian Imam Abdul Hadi Arwani

The victim has not been identified by the police but he has been named locally as Abdul Hadi Arwani, a Syrian and former imam at An-noor Masjid mosque in Acton, west London.

 

[krink]

bit more on abdul hadi arwani coming out now. talk of assassination squad from an associate in National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...of-proassad-assassination-squad-10163450.html

 

[Geri]

The Starving of Yarmouk

 

[frogwoman]

cant see that, does anyone have the full text online?

The way zios and assad supporters are both trying to make political capiltal out of that is just revolting.

 

[Casually Red]

bit more on abdul hadi arwani coming out now. talk of assassination squad from an associate in National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...of-proassad-assassination-squad-10163450.html

But nothing more than idle baseless talk..zero substance . And it seems he had a fall out with his associates over missing funds right before he was killed . Doubt very much Assad would be sending hitsquads after small fry like that either . And professional assassins will always shoot you in the head to make sure . Didn't happen in this case..which suggests the killers weren't professional assassins

 

[Geri]

cant see that, does anyone have the full text online?

The way zios and assad supporters are both trying to make political capiltal out of that is just revolting.

I don't know why people cant't see it. Someone posted it on my Facebook timeline, maybe try clicking on it there and seeing if it works?

 

[teqniq]

Foreign policy is subscription only (at least is is for me, maybe it's got something to do with how many times you've visited the site).

 

[DotCommunist]

it'll let you look once, clear cookies and try again

 

[teqniq]

nope tried it in a different web browser, same shit (cleared cookies in there too)

 

[teqniq]

I think there may have been rumours about this posted way upthread, but now it seem that there is more substance.

Israel moves to cover-up its alliance with al-Qaeda in Syria

Sedqi al-Maqet, a Syrian activist who lives in the Israeli-occupied part of Syria known as the Golan Heights was interned after a dawn raid on his home by Israel secret police at the end of February. Until quite recently, the Israeli media was absolutely banned from mentioning his case at all, even from referring or linking to foreign press reports on the issue.

Al-Maqet is a Syrian Druze from Majdal Shams known for his media activism and support of the Bashar al-Assad regime. He had published information online (including via his Facebook account) about contacts he said he had witnessed between Israeli armed forces in the Golan and what he termed terrorists active in the Syrian-controlled sector of the Golan....

 

[teqniq]

Unravelling the media spin on Yarmouk

 

[Geri]

Foreign policy is subscription only (at least is is for me, maybe it's got something to do with how many times you've visited the site).

I don't have a subscription and I've never visited it before. I could copy and paste it but it would be quite long.

 

[Belushi]

Afghan mercenaries fighting for Assad

http://www.spiegel.de/international...g-for-assad-and-stuck-in-syria-a-1032869.html

 

[butchersapron]

Examination of what's left of the regimes forces (wider look at allies in the bigger report linked to in opening blurb) from pro-american power institute:

General degradation across all areas:

For one, the Syrian Arab Army continues to suffer severe manpower problems due to ongoing pressures of defection, desertion, and combat attrition in 2015 (read “The Assad Regime UnderStress: Conscription and Protest among Alawite and Minority Populations inSyria”). Three years of war have reduced the SAA by nearly half, from a pre-war high of approximately 300,000 troops to a 2014 estimate of 150,000-175,000 men. These sharp reductions stretched the SAA’s ability to hold terrain and forced the regime to prioritize the use of its limited offensive capability. Manpower shortages also prevent the SAA from decisively defeating the Syrian opposition on the battlefield. Military analyst David Kilcullen estimated in March 2014 that pro-regime forces maintained at maximum only a 2.5-to-1 soldier-to-insurgent force ratio against the Syrian opposition at that time,27 a condition which has likely deteriorated further one year later. Kilcullen also noted that the Assad regime possessed less than half of the troop-to- population ratio traditionally assessed as necessary for a successful counterinsurgency campaign.

The Syrian Arab Army also remained handicapped by regime suspicions regarding the loyalty and reliability of mainline SAA combat units. Analysis of the Syrian Army’s 2011-2012 military campaign suggested that the regime could only reliably deploy 65,000 to 75,000 of its troops in offensive operations, mainly elite units such as the Republican Guard, the Special Forces, and the 4th Armored Division commanded by President Assad’s brother Maher al-Assad. Meanwhile, regular army units – mainly comprised of rank-and-file conscripted Sunnis deemed ‘untrustworthy’ by the regime – were confined to defensive positions or limited offensives in close proximity to their bases. In the words of one Damascus based SAA commander in April 2013, “Most of the soldiers in my unit are Sunnis. They don’t trust me, and I don’t trust them.” Two years later, the vast majority of regular SAA units remained bound to their assigned home stations, largely concentrated in Dera’a and Damascus Provinces as an artifact of a pre-2011 military doctrine designed to provide defense in depth against an Israeli offensive towards Damascus.

Reliance on limited special forces which produces problems with the regular 'arab army' and the special forces themselves:

The Syrian regime continued to rely upon its trusted elite SAA units throughout 2014 as a mobile offensive force often dispatched to augment regular SAA forces along critical battlefronts. Throughout 2014 and early 2015, the Republican Guard and 4th Armored Division, units specifically designated to protect the regime, conducted most of their operations in the vicinity of Damascus targeting major pockets of opposition forces occupying the Eastern and Western Ghouta suburbs of the city. Detachments from these units have also been deployed throughout the country in order to reinforce priority fronts. A detachment of the 104th Republican Guard Brigade under the command of Brigadier General Issam Zahreddine deployed to Deir ez-Zour Military Airbase in early 2014 to bolster its beleaguered defenders and preserve the regime presence in Deir ez-Zour city. Elements from the 106th Republican Guard Brigade and the 4th Armored Division also participated in repelling a rebel offensive against the Hama Military Airport in late 2014. The Republican Guard sent multiple waves of reinforcements to Aleppo city throughout 2014 to assist the regime encirclement campaign of the city, while the 4th Armored Division provided at least forty tanks to support a joint regime-Hezbollah offensive in Dera’a Province launched in February 2015 meant to reverse significant rebel gains.

The repeated deployments of a small number of military units also fuels increasing decentralization within the Syrian Arab Army. Elite SAA units such as the Republican Guards have been consistently deployed across the country in small-scale contingents as both independent detachments and as embedded reinforcements to regular SAA units over the past several years. These observations suggest that the SAA has restructured in favor of smaller military formations directed by command-and-control elements located in the field rather than in rear headquarters. This is likely an adaptation reflecting the demand for forward leadership in remote locations, possibly due to low conscript morale. This trend towards decentralization within the formal Syrian Arab Army represents a complementary process to the increasing regime reliance on paramilitary militia organizations.

Exec summary of larger report :

The Assad regime is not positioned to secure an outright military victory in 2015. The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) continues to grapple with chronic problems of attrition and political unreliability which force Assad to rely upon a small core of trusted elite military units in addition to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps - Quds Force (IRGC-QF), Hezbollah, and other Iranian-aligned forces to conduct offensive operations. Meanwhile, the use of decentralized paramilitary units such as the National Defense Forces (NDF) in increasingly prominent combat roles has fragmented the regime’s authority over its fighting force and caused cleavages in Assad’s popular support base.

These manpower limitations have led Assad to adopt a military strategy of an “army in all corners” which involves the establishment and defense of remote regime outposts throughout Syria in order to pin the outer bounds of a contiguous post-war Syrian state. Assad likely hopes that this strategy will enable him to avoid decisive defeat while still outwardly claiming to control all of Syria, eventually translating into international political legitimacy. This approach may successfully prolong the staying power of President Assad, but it protracts violence and destruction throughout the country and allows jihadist groups to flourish. The passive posture maintained by Assad’s forces effectively cedes control over large swathes of countryside to ISIS, Jabhat al-Nusra (JN), and other Islamic extremist groups.

 

[butchersapron]

Missed this other bit of murkiness last week:

Terror trial collapses after fears of deep embarrassment to security services

The prosecution of a Swedish national accused of terrorist activities in Syria has collapsed at the Old Bailey after it became clear Britain’s security and intelligence agencies would have been deeply embarrassed had a trial gone ahead, the Guardian can reveal.

His lawyers argued that British intelligence agencies were supporting the same Syrian opposition groups as he was, and were party to a secret operation providing weapons and non-lethal help to the groups, including the Free Syrian Army.

The attorney general was consulted about Monday’s decision. Karmy-Jones told the court in pre-trial hearings that Gildo had worked with Jabhat al-Nusra, a “proscribed group considered to be al-Qaida in Syria”. He was photographed standing over dead bodies with his finger pointing to the sky.

Detailed look at the political implications for Syrian Uprising here - ties in with the judicial watch stuff that was discussed on the ISIS thread last week as well.

 

[butchersapron]

Alliance of Peace and Freedom delegation: Europe must take Syria’s side and fight terrorism

Damascus – Roberto Fiore, head of the delegation of the Alliance for Peace and Freedom (APF) in Europe, said the United States, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar are on top of the countries involved in the conspiracy plotted against Syria.

During a meeting with Speaker of the People’s Assembly Mohammad Jihad al-Laham on Saturday, Fiore said Syria is facing a blatant attack armed by extremism and terrorism, represented by the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) terrorist organization.

He described what is going on as “a conflict between civilization and chaos,” saying that in their position as a delegation for peace and freedom, their mission is to convince the European people to take the civilization’s side represented by Syria and fight terrorism before it reaches Europe.

Fiore, who is leader of Italy’s New Force party, warned of the ongoing spread of terrorism and ISIS, noting that terrorism simultaneously strikes different areas as it is now active in the Mediterranean region, with ISIS also spreading to Lebanon, Libya, some areas in Spain and even in the Balkans.

Note his old mate Nick Griffin there too. Via here

 

[Idris2002]

That's the Bologna bombing guy, isn't it? Or some equally fucked up motherfucking shit, anyway?

 

[butchersapron]

That's the Bologna bombing guy, isn't it? Or some equally fucked up motherfucking shit, anyway?

Never convicted - he was in the ball park. But so was the state, which is one reason he has never been convicted of anything related to it.

 

[butchersapron]

Southern Front rebels (that's FSA, non-islamist) take regime’s Brigade 52 base in Daraa Province - key because it was the base for attacks on lots of other areas, esp shelling - lots and lots of weaponry there.

Map

 

[butchersapron]

Lot more info on the above.

 

[teqniq]

That's a shitload of munitions they've got their hands on. Things are looking increasingly bad for the regime atm.

 

[butchersapron]

Besieged by ISIS: Photographs From Inside the Syrian City of Deir ez-Zor

The people of Deir ez-Zor are surrounded—and scared. Fighters from the Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria already control about 40% of this city in Syria’s eastern desert and have encircled the rest of the town in a siege that began in December. Residents told a Western photographer who visited the city in May that they are familiar with the track record of the extremist Islamist group surrounding them: many have seen films of ISIS beheading and crucifying people it considers opponents and criminals, and they’ve heard the stories about the theocratic tyranny ISIS imposes on the areas it controls in Syria and Iraq. The 228,000 people still living under government control have every reason to be afraid.

The photographs on these pages were taken by the Western photographer, whom TIME has agreed not to name out of concern for his safety and who worked in the government-controlled part of Deir ez-Zor for three weeks. The images provide a rare look at the fighting from inside the besieged city. (The photographer was given access to the military by the dictatorial regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad and was protected by government bodyguards. He says the government allowed him to take photographs without hindrance, but he says the local people he communicated with were unlikely to speak freely in the presence of officials.)

 

[yield]

Cannot make the link work? Is it this one?

http://time.com/3916518/isis-syria-photographs/