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And next, Syria?

I'm getting the feeling that the SDF's project is unraveling. In Arab areas there may now be support for HTS taking over from people who had previously seen the SDF as preferable to the regime. It isn't all about SNA/Turkish attacks.

Yeah one of the issues with the US/coalition support for the SDF against IS was that it enabled the SDF to take areas and stay (2016 onwards) that it might not have otherwise been able to and that were much more majority arab. In some of these places there's been a quite uneasy situation the last few years.
 
Hamas began the bread and butter stuff before it held any territory as did the MB in Egypt. It was not an insignificant part of why they became popular and found electoral support.

Muslim Brotherhood have been around for a long time.

What I'm not clear on is the difference between the old Muslim Brotherhood and the newer Jihadist groups like ISIS and Al quaeda.

More for the Gaza thread but been reading this very good book on history of Gaza. Even handed.

My concern with Islamist political groups like HTS who are politically savvy Is that the conservative religious stuff does not go away. It gets put on the back burner.

For example Palestinian Muslim Brotherhood did do charity work etc. They also got into punch ups with other Palestinians over "morality " issues. And could be violent towards more secular Palestinians whilst being no threat to IDF. Pre Hamas.

MB took part in 48 in fighting Zionist paramilitaries. After that abandoned armed struggle for quietly building up themselves in Gaza.

Stood by whilst those fighting Israel got arrested , killed and imprisoned.

Gaza has long history of Palestinians bravely fighting Israel occupation. Particularly after 67. MB stood by and left it to groups like PFLP to do the fighting.

One might argue this was cynical move. As other leftist Palestinian groups best people ended up being killed. Leaving MB intact for the long haul.

When first Intifada started and MB members were leaving for Fatah they changed tack. A popular uprising and they were still sticking to non involvement in politics. It was becoming ridiculous.

Get impression that it was only when MB changed tack became Hamas and foregrounded the armed struggle against Zionism. Rather than the unpopular religious conservative views that they got more support.

So id say the religious conservative values could resurface. At some point.
 
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Few days old now, but don't think we've had this interview with Yassin al-Haj Saleh:


So, among hundreds of people yesterday, I was at the Republic Square in Paris. We were overwhelmed by emotions, mine, I guess, similar to everybody else, crying, laughing and breathing. It was a rare moment of convergence of mourning and happiness and just feeling alive.


On the personal level, I lived almost all my life under this genocidal regime, and I felt as if tight hands were on my neck, on my throat, and for the first day I regained the ability to breathe. So, it is a great day, glorious day.


Everybody, I guess — of course, myself included — have many layers of feeling about this day. We need to turn out this dirty, criminal, discriminatory, fascist and very reactionary — I guess this is the right word to describe the Assad regime, because many in the West thinks that it is modernist, this is progressive. Far from it. So, we needed to turn out this page. And we are sure that many pages with difficulties, with hardships, with crisis, with struggles, with problems are ahead of us.


But the forever is over. And yesterday was the first day of history with all its problems and tensions and, of course, I mean, apprehensions. So, it was a mixed feeling. And there are many elements for hope.

He was never pro PKK/YPG as I remember, but shifted to ultra anti as they began to accomodate more towards Assad and I think this fitted with him ending up seeing Turkey as the only means of preserving the 'revolution' after his hopes of US intervention were disappointed.
Yeah, it's disappointing to see him end up there, because (leaving aside the outright or soft Assadists) lots of lefties who had anything to say about Syria were basically just YPG/SDF mouthpieces who'd have nothing to say about tricky questions like the accommodation with Assad, so left anti-Assad voices who were willing to offer a critical perspective on Rojava, and knew what they were talking about, were really valuable. And for one of the most prominent ones to end up as an apologist for Turkish intervention does threaten to taint the whole perspective by association.
 
Mazloum Abdi, chief of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), announced on Thursday that they have reached agreements with the new authority in Damascus, adding that they are working on sending a delegation to the capital.

“At the outset of the incident, HTS informed us that our territories are not their target,” he said during an interview with the SDF-affiliated Ronahi TV aired on Thursday, referring to the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) - a jihadist group which recently led a coalition of rebel groups and successfully toppled Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

The new authority has avoided clashes with the US-backed SDF so far.

“We have agreements with HTS regarding Aleppo and Deir ez-Zor,” Abdi said.

When the HTS took over Aleppo city, they allowed the SDF to maintain its control of Kurdish-majority neighborhoods, mainly Sheikh Maqsood.

When the former regime’s army withdrew from parts of Deir ez-Zor to support Assad in other parts of the country, the SDF replaced them, saying the deployment was aimed at preventing the Islamic State (ISIS) from exploiting the security vacuum.

The SDF remains in control of parts of the oil-rich province.

“Efforts are underway to send a delegation to Damascus for some negotiations,” revealed Abdi.

The Kurdish administration in northeast Syria (Rojava) decided on Thursday to raise the new flag of the country, previously used by the opposition, across its institutions.

The flag, featuring three red stars and the colors green, white, and black, has been used by various opposition groups fighting against Assad’s oppressive regime.

Referring to it as “the flag of independence,” Abdi said the flag is "suitable" for them "because this is not the flag of the Syrian Arab Republic but the flag of the Syrian Republic, which represents all components."
 


Watched this. Its a YouTube channel been following for coverage of Gaza.

This episode is wide ranging discussion about fall of Assad. Its a view by people from middle east or middle east background. They are academics but this is not a lecture. Which makes it more interesting as its more of a messy ( in good way) conversation.

The two main speakers have Syrian background.

Starts with short history of recent Syria - Arab Nationalism and rise of Assad family.

Does go through some of the underlying economic reasons for the regime losing support ( Bassam Haddad has written on the political economy) and the poor leadership by Assad ( Omar Dahi). Poor leadership in sense that Assad had won. But refused any overtures to compromise to bring a settlement. This was a frozen conflict.

They agree the HTS were hoping , due to the frozen conflict and intransigence of Asaad to make military facts on the ground. The success of the military campaign was a surprise to all.

Even though Assad had sort of won the economic situation of the Syrian people was bad and with no real peace in sight so little support for Assad

One of the speakers ( Omar I think) was saying his family relatives had been split. Some supporting Assad , whilst hating the dictatorship , due to fear of Islamic extremists taking over. Others not supporting Assad

Both the main commentators said Assad regime was brutal.

It was ( Bassam Hassad) the political economy that led to less tolerance of the regime. With Assad abandoning any residual socialist Arab nationalism for a neo liberal turn that led to some getting very wealthy.

So I say he's arguing there is an economic basis to loss of support for the regime.

There is a lot in this one hour and forty minutes.

Discussion of Israel , Imperialism and restructuring of middle east in relation to ordinary people just wanting to get rid of appalling regime. Where emphasis is. Bassam argued one can hold both. Opposing imperialism / Israel and more locally opposing a brutal dictator like Assad. Its not an either or situation is what I think he means.

On future of Syria - hypothesis that it will not end up as either a Islamic regime or a failed state like Libya but more like Lebanon

A weak central state with various groups in control in different areas with uneasy working together of them for state to function.

( This would suit outside actors like Israel was a view put)

So far HTS are seen to be trying to keep state institutions going.

The future would also have to mean improvement of living standards of average Syrian Something Bassam is pessimistic about.

Some of it went a bit over my head. But its interesting to watch people from the region and heavily personally invested in it discussing this. I saw this video as being a work in progress discussion. Rather than them making a definitive statement.

Just to edit.

Omar Dahi talked about possible resurgence for Syrian civil society. Like womens groups. The fall of Assad being possible window of opportunity for civil society to re assert itself.
 
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This looks to be a pretty shit situation for the Kurds. From the language being used ['The Kurdish-led administration says it is willing to "unite" with the new administration in Damascus'] I suspect they are hoping for assistance from the nascent central government. Whether it can be provided or whether it is in fact too late remains to be seen.


E2a although by the looks of it there may be a ceasefire on the cards if this is true:

1734095295167.png

The dam talked about in the linked article now appears to be under SNA control:

View attachment ssstwitter.com_1734095574341.mp4

source
 
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source

Petition to the UN Secretary General on behalf of the newly formed Syrian government:

Date: December 9, 2024

To the Secretary-General of the United Nations and the President of the Security Council

On instructions from my Government, I would like to convey to you the following:

At a time when the Syrian Arab Republic is witnessing a new phase in its history in which its people aspire to a state of freedom, equality, social justice, the rule of law, peace and stability, the Israeli occupation army has escalated its ongoing aggression on the territory of the Syrian Arab Republic, in Jil al-Sheikh and Quneitra Governorate, causing damage to property and lives, and is still ongoing, targeting a number of civilian and military sites within Syrian territory.

The Syrian Arab Republic condemns in the strongest terms this Israeli aggression, which represents a serious violation of the 1974 Disengagement Agreement, which was confirmed in Security Council Resolution No. 350 of 1974. It also constitutes a violation of the sovereignty of the Syrian Arab Republic, the unity and integrity of its territories, and contradicts the principles and Charter of the United Nations, the provisions of international law, and Security Council Resolutions 242, 338, and 497.

Syria renews its call on the United Nations and the Security Council to assume their responsibilities and take firm measures to compel Israel to immediately cease its ongoing attacks on Syrian territory, ensure that they are not repeated, and withdraw immediately according to the areas agreed upon in the Disengagement Agreement, and fully abide by the Disengagement Agreement and the mandate of the UNDOF.

I hope that this letter will be issued and circulated as a document of the Security Council and the 79th session of the General Assembly, within the framework of item No. 34 of its agenda entitled "The situation in the Middle East".

Permanent Representative
Ambassador
Qusai Al-Da7ak
 
source

Petition to the UN Secretary General on behalf of the newly formed Syrian government:

Date: December 9, 2024

To the Secretary-General of the United Nations and the President of the Security Council

On instructions from my Government, I would like to convey to you the following:

At a time when the Syrian Arab Republic is witnessing a new phase in its history in which its people aspire to a state of freedom, equality, social justice, the rule of law, peace and stability, the Israeli occupation army has escalated its ongoing aggression on the territory of the Syrian Arab Republic, in Jil al-Sheikh and Quneitra Governorate, causing damage to property and lives, and is still ongoing, targeting a number of civilian and military sites within Syrian territory.

The Syrian Arab Republic condemns in the strongest terms this Israeli aggression, which represents a serious violation of the 1974 Disengagement Agreement, which was confirmed in Security Council Resolution No. 350 of 1974. It also constitutes a violation of the sovereignty of the Syrian Arab Republic, the unity and integrity of its territories, and contradicts the principles and Charter of the United Nations, the provisions of international law, and Security Council Resolutions 242, 338, and 497.

Syria renews its call on the United Nations and the Security Council to assume their responsibilities and take firm measures to compel Israel to immediately cease its ongoing attacks on Syrian territory, ensure that they are not repeated, and withdraw immediately according to the areas agreed upon in the Disengagement Agreement, and fully abide by the Disengagement Agreement and the mandate of the UNDOF.

I hope that this letter will be issued and circulated as a document of the Security Council and the 79th session of the General Assembly, within the framework of item No. 34 of its agenda entitled "The situation in the Middle East".

Permanent Representative
Ambassador
Qusai Al-Da7ak
It does appear it's finished anyway. That letter is dated 9/12, which was the main day Israel blew everything up.

Anyway the UN needs to step in ASAP.
 
A look at the various reasons why the army didn't fight, and also noting that it may not try to fill the power vacuum as has happened in other Arab states:
A final, hopeful implication from this reading of Syrian civil-military relations is that what has just happened in Damascus is not a replay of what happened in Egypt in 2011, when the armed forces eased then president Hosni Mubarak out of office in order to protect their position and preserve the core regime, or when the Algerian and Sudanese armies did the same in 2019. The dozens of senior Syrian army commanders who remained in Damascus on the last day of Assad’s rule may well have told him they would not fight for him and advised him to step down. However, they lacked the habit of political autonomy and the social autonomization needed to abort Syria’s political transition and take power into their own hands.
 
Guffaw, the whining about Miliband re:Syria still exists. Note this classic in the Torygraph:

Miliband whine

How about not acting like the geopolitical butler in the world 'stage'. The UK is one of the most pathetic states in the planet. Wes Streeting should leave the Labour party
 
Guffaw, the whining about Miliband re:Syria still exists. Note this classic in the Torygraph:

Miliband whine

How about not acting like the geopolitical butler in the world 'stage'. The UK is one of the most pathetic states in the planet. Wes Streeting should leave the Labour party
You should leave urban. Sadly neither of us are likely to see our hopes realised.
 
Video of prisoners being released in SDF controlled areas.

All this leaves the question of what happens to the prisons holding those detained after the defeat of IS.
 
Israeli occupied Syria

As night fell on Dec. 8, the flag of the Syrian revolution flooded the streets of Majdal Shams, in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Gathering in the town’s central square — dominated by the statue of Sultan Al-Atrash, who led the Great Syrian Revolt against the French colonial administration here a century ago — residents sang songs of jubilation, and chanted “The Syrian people are one.”

For these Druze residents — many of whom are not Israeli citizens, reject the state’s authority, and instead hold onto their Syrian identity — the events transpiring only a few kilometers across the border will have a direct impact on their lives. Most of them have relatives in Syria, and many even studied at Syrian universities prior to the outbreak of the civil war in 2011.

“I’ve waited my whole life for this moment,” Shehada Nasrallah, one of those celebrating in the town square on Monday night, told +972. “I dreamed of Bashar Al-Assad’s downfall. The man killed and destroyed all of Syria,” he continued, adding that some of his friends were killed by the Assad regime.

“The scenes from Damascus and other Syrian cities bring happiness, and I only wish that many of my friends were still alive to witness these moments,” Nasrallah said, expressing hope that Syria will become a democratic country “as it deserves to be,” and that Syrians will be able to live “without fear of the regime or Islamist groups.”

Until now, many critics of the Assad regime in the Jawlan, as the Golan Heights is known in Arabic, refrained from expressing their views for fear of retaliation against their relatives in Syria. Among the few who openly expressed opposition to the Syrian government in recent years was Malham Abu Saleh, a resident of Majdal Shams.

Abu Saleh explained that most residents of the Jawlan who wished to see the end of Assad’s regime had lost hope that this day would ever come, particularly after the missile strike in late July on a soccer field in Majdal Shams that killed 12 children — for which Israel blamed Hezbollah, and Hezbollah blamed Israel. “This disaster amplified voices calling for ‘Israelization’ among the Jawlan’s residents,” he said. “Coupled with the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, it led us to believe that the possibility of liberation for the Syrian people had grown more distant.”

But things changed quickly. “When rebels began advancing into the western outskirts of Aleppo last week, we thought it was just ‘routine’ incidents,” Abu Saleh said. “But after they entered the city and the regime retreated so easily, we started to understand that something different was taking place.

“It may take years to understand what really happened, how Bashar Al-Assad surrendered so easily, and what occurred behind the scenes,” Abu Saleh continued. “But soon, the world will learn about the massacres that took place in Syria and the mass graves. The Syrian Holocaust will be a black stain on the history of humanity.”
“I do not believe Israel has legitimacy to remain in Syrian territories,” Abu Saleh said. “Aside from [President-elect Donald] Trump, the entire world agrees that the Jawlan is Syrian and does not accept the [Israeli] occupation. So how can it accept the occupation of additional territories now?”
 
Aaron Zelin
New statement from Ahmad al-Shar’a on Israel (first time commenting directly since the offensive began Nov 27):

-We are not going to engage in conflict with Israel

-Israel's arguments for entering Syria no longer exist

-Israel uses the Iranian presence as an excuse to enter Syria

-Israel's arguments have ended and the Israelis have crossed the lines of engagement

-The Israeli side violated the 1974 ceasefire agreement

-The Israelis have clearly crossed the lines of engagement in Syria, which threatens an unjustified escalation in the region

-The international community must urgently intervene and assume its responsibilities towards the recent Israeli escalation
 
I hadn't really expected this. I'm not aware of HTS showing any previous support for the idea of elections and parliamentary democracy.

Suhaib Zaino
Breaking | Ahmad Al-Sharaa:
•The structure of governance in Syria will be left to the decisions of experts and legal professionals, with the Syrian people ultimately deciding.
•The upcoming government will include elections. (!!!)
•Committees and councils will be formed to reassess the constitution.
•Competence and capability will serve as the basis for evaluation in the future state.
 
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Interview with HTS military commander Abu Hassan al-Hamawi.

Archived version: https://archive.ph/TqRXI
After more than a decade of war, Syria is a seething cauldron of militias. Mr Hamawi says they must now be folded into the state: “All military units will naturally transition to the ministry of defence, forming a unified army tasked with protecting the nation on behalf of all Syrians.” But not all groups will be welcome. He insists that there will be no place in the new Syria for jihadists eager to launch attacks on the West (such as Islamic State). hts will deal with them with “decisiveness”, he says.

In the longer term this may provide a means of giving the SNA militias the choice of becoming part of the regular army or disbanding. This could be a way of removing Turkey's involvement in conflict in the north.
 
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Palestinian armed groups ordered to disband

source
The most assertive decisions made since the fall of Assad include the closure of all training camps for Palestinian military factions, the surrender of their weapons, and the dissolution of all their groups.

These militias are affiliated with the criminal Assad regime, and they have contributed to the killing and displacement of Syrians, in addition to their alliance with the Iran-Hezbollah axis.

There are American Jewish organizations that care more about the Palestinian cause than these mercenary organizations.
 
Suhail AlGhazi
Syria cable to Assad from head of General Security Branch Hussam Luqa, under US\EU sanctions, dated on December 5 saying he had a phone call with head of Italian Intelligence Service general Giovanni Cavarelli where the General offers Italy support to Assad and importance of Russian support for Assad 4 days after Russian airstrike targeted a Christian school in Aleppo

Full translation of the last 2 lines(I've received a phone call from General Giovanni Cavarelli the head of Italian Intelligence Service (based on his request) where he stressed out his country support for Syria in this difficult moment. Explaining how important the Russian support for Syria will be in this moment.)

Charles Lister
Troubling to say the least.

Days after Aleppo's fall, Italy Foreign Intelligence Service (AISE) was offering its support to Assad's regime. Meanwhile, Christian schools were being bombed by Syria & Russia aircraft.

This report from 2018 may shed some light on the Italian right's links to Assad.
Leila al-Shami, a Syrian-British activist and co-author of Burning Country: Syrians in Revolution and War, explained that the far right’s relationship with Assad is rooted in the ideological overlap between European fascism and Baathism, the Syrian government’s founding ideology.

“There is definitely an overlap, and it works on two levels – the first is the ideological roots of Baathism, which definitely incorporates elements of fascism and extreme nationalism,” al-Shami told Al Jazeera.

Explaining that early Baathists “took inspiration from European fascism, particularly how to build a totalitarian state”, al-Shami argued that many neo-fascists also see the Assad government as “resisting Israel and Muslims alike”.

Meanwhile, the Assad government has seized the visits to “build legitimacy”, saying it has international support and that these visitors know there is a conspiracy against Syria, the author said.
 
No idea. If north east Syria is going to be a part of this then there's a list of political parties here. I expect right now HTS, or whatever political formation comes out of it, would get overwhelming support
 
HTS has its own prisons in Idlib.

Rami Jarrah
HTS DETAINEES
Family members of detainees held by HTS in Idlib protested in Aleppo today, demanding their release. Reports suggest those being held are made up of members of civil society that have been detained for simply exercising their rights, some having spent months and even years. Though reports are also circulating that some of the detainees are religious extremists. Either way, Jolani must address the issue immediately, as it contradicts reassurances he has made to Syrians. clarity on this topic to the Syrian people will demonstrate a seriousness by Jolani to set the country on a positive trajectory that is both transparent and lawful.
 
Mazloum Abdi, chief of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), on Saturday called on Kurdish parties in northeast Syria (Rojava) to form a unified front ahead of national Syrian dialogue and amid efforts to resume intra-Kurdish talks.

“Today, Kurdish national unity in Syria has become a historic necessity in response to the challenges of this critical phase. We call on all Kurdish parties to set aside partisan interests and genuinely engage with public calls for dialogue and unity,” Abdi said on X.

He urged Kurdish parties in Rojava to overcome their differences so that Kurds can “adopt a unified stance in support of dialogue in Syria and participate in shaping a democratic and diverse future for the country.”

His call comes amid efforts to resume talks between feuding Kurdish parties in Rojava.

Following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime last week, the Kurdish National Unity Parties (PYNK) expressed readiness to return to talks with the Kurdish National Council (ENKS/KNC). The PYNK is a coalition of 24 parties that have close ties with Rojava’s ruling Democratic Union Party (PYD) and have representatives in the Democratic Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (DAANES).

The ENKS, an umbrella group of Kurdish opposition parties in Rojava, also expressed readiness to resume talks, but said they had not received an official request from the PYNK.

“Until the future of Syria is determined, we will pay special attention to the issue of a unified Kurdish stance, but that unified stance must also be agreed upon,” ENKS spokesperson Faysal Yusuf told Rudaw on Saturday.
 
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