And next, Syria?

[zahir]

Mazloum Abdi: We have an agreement with Tahrir al-Sham - Enab Baladi

The commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Mazloum Abdi, spoke about an agreement between his forces and the Hayat […]

english.enabbaladi.net

The commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Mazloum Abdi, spoke about an agreement between his forces and the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) engaged in the Military Operation Administration, which controls the capital Damascus and most of Syria's territory.

In an interview with Ronahi Channel on Thursday, December 12, Abdi stated that the SDF has agreements with Tahrir al-Sham concerning the provinces of Aleppo and Deir Ezzor, noting that there is an agreement regarding both eastern and western Deir Ezzor.

Abdi mentioned that Tahrir al-Sham informed the SDF about their military operation, indicating that the areas controlled by the SDF are not their target.

Tahrir al-Sham no longer officially declares or presents itself as a military faction since the launch of the Military Operations Administration the battle of “Deterrence of Aggression” on November 27, and everything related to it falls under the activities of the Military Operations Administration.

The Military Operations Administration took control of a part of Deir Ezzor province located west of the Euphrates River at the expense of the SDF on Wednesday, December 11, as part of the “Deterrence of Aggression” campaign.

The SDF is working on “preparing the atmosphere to send a delegation to Damascus for dialogue,” seeking discussions with the transitional government, according to Abdi.

 

[zahir]

Charles Lister

NEW - HTS leader Jolani suggests efforts will be made to allow Kurds displaced from Afrin to return to their homes.

This of course will involve dealing with areas currently under SNA control.

 

[zahir]

Article by Zaina Erhaim from 2021 about the rise and decline of the Local Coordinating Committees.

How the Syrian Revolution was Organized — And How it Unraveled

As the uprising spread throughout the country, activists in the various cities, governorates, and nationwide needed to coordinate their work. This is how the Local Coordination Committees of Syria (LCC) were born.

newlinesmag.com

At one point, the LCC had become a network of 70 coordination groups operated by media and street activists connected to the grassroots revolt inside Syria. It was anti-sectarian, committed to nonviolence, and opposed to foreign intervention. However, this position shifted as regime violence escalated, and in early 2012, the LCC began calling on the international community to take a stronger stand against the Assad regime while recognizing the role of the Free Syrian Army, the rebel force that was beginning to coalesce.

In addition to the secular-versus-Islamic identity conflicts that started to reveal themselves more, there was an Arab-Kurdish conflict divide that ensnared some nationalist members. It also caused many figures, mainly Kurdish ones, to step away from the LCC and refuse to be associated with it.

It was always the public figures who were secular or did not overtly portray themselves as Islamic who faced fierce character assassination campaigns on social media over the past decade of war. These character assassinations might develop if an activist didn’t condemn the regime in the same vicious terms that were expected of angry opposition figures and could take the form of a leaked picture, for example of a female activist wearing a bathing suit on the beach.

Other myriad, unfounded accusations were often directed at these secular activists who were part of the nascent revolution. These include embezzling funds, abuse of power, writing harmful reports about other activists to the authorities, whether to the regime, the opposition, embassies, or governments of neighboring counties, and so on.

“In such a complicated conflict like ours, it’s normal for such destruction to happen on all levels,” said Mazen. “Any community in our situation would have got the same results of sectarianism, division, racism, loyalties to ideologies and other countries, so everything we are passing through is normal.”

None of those perceived and valued as heroes at the beginning of the uprising, who are still alive and out of detention, are considered legitimate, trusted, or appreciated now. Within the realm of Syria’s fragmented and fractured opposition, even they contend with relentless efforts to discredit them and undermine their legacy. A decade into the revolution they helped spark, they are scattered, their movement leaderless and disunited. The regime couldn’t have done a better job in breaking the various aspects of Syria’s peaceful movement.

 

[zahir]

Thread on US policy and the SDF

Thread by @sfrantzman on Thread Reader App

@sfrantzman: One of the missed opportunities in US policy in the region in the last decade was the failure to take into account the successful model of the SDF in Syria and try to find a...

threadreaderapp.com

Also

Many don’t seem to understand that this is the end goal if nothing is done to stop it. Ankara’s policy since 2016 has been solely focused on mobilizing SNA proxies and ethnic cleansing Kurds and getting Syrians to fight each other. Ankara sees this as a history 100-year opportunity to remove all the Kurds of Syria basically from the border. This is part of a policy arc of disasters that goes back to the 1915 genocide, the invasion of Cyprus and other campaigns of ethnic cleansing that have sought to rid areas of minorities or groups Ankara views as “threats”.

It’s possible that the only way for the SDF to stop this would be to invite HTS into the border area. HTS appears to pay lip service to wanting to govern Syria and end the process of foreign countries each having a piece of Syria. It’s not clear if the U.S. will stop Ankara’s plans when push comes to shove. The current and former administration have a long record of appeasing Ankara when push comes to shove. One can also look to a few comments by former Trump admin officials to get a sense.

 

[zahir]

A long thread on Syria and sanctions. HTS will be very much aware of these issues.

Graeme Smith

A brutal regime falls. But there’s a problem: the UN and several countries say the victorious rebels are terrorists. What to do? There’s no playbook for Islamist insurgents faced with the challenges of running a country. But there is a precedent, in Afghanistan...

 

[kebabking]

Hang together, or...

 

[Gramsci]

This is being reported on Middle East Eye Live feed this morning.

Report not confirmed yet. But sounds similar to tactic in Gaza - Destruction of infrastructure.

• The Israeli army has launched over 60 strikes on Syria since the morning, bringing the total to 800 Israeli attacks on the country over the past week.
• After destroying roads, water networks and power lines in southern Syria's Quneitra, the Israeli army is reportedly asking dignitaries and mayors in the occupied Golan Heights to collect weapons seized from abandoned Syrian government positions.

 

[Gramsci]

Report from Middle East Eye on the ongoing attacks by Israel

Syrian commander on Israeli frontline says invasion will go no further

Rebel commander in Qatana, a Syrian town just 8km from Israeli troops, says 'we refuse to let anyone enter Syria'

www.middleeasteye.net

The Syrian Civil Defence, a search-and-rescue organisation known as the White Helmets, has condemned Israel’s attacks, saying they “were undermining the aspirations of Syrians to build a free, sovereign, and stable state”.

Sheikh, the commander who now finds himself his hometown’s top authority, says the international community could help with that - “including by getting Israel to stop attacking Syria and leave”.

Assad has gone. There is no excuse for Israel actions now

 

[Gramsci]

Came across this by Syrian. An architect who stayed in Syria throughout the civil war. Looked her up and her books on architecture and the war have been well received.

Syrians have flown the cage. We must not lose our freedom again

A divided Syria would suit many of the powers around us plotting to take advantage of the fall of Assad. Our destiny can be in our own hands. We must seize it

www.middleeasteye.net

Hopes for a Syria independent from interference from foreign powers. She locates the history of recent middle east with breakup up of the Ottoman Empire. Instead of freedom the land was carved up by Imperial/ colonial powers

In a recent address, Israeli officials spoke openly about their wishes to see a divided Syria as a "solution" to accommodate the different minorities. Ever since Sykes-Picot in 1916, the dividing of the people of this region has always been the aim of the colonial powers.

And as has been posted here the links between the authoritarian state and Nazis

In this case architecture, On the prisons

Reportedly designed by the Austrian Nazi war criminal Alois Brunner - the right-hand man to Adolf Eichmann and commander of the Drancy internment camp - who went to Syria after the defeat of the Nazis and eventually became an adviser to President Hafez al-Assad, Bashar's father, the Baathists and the Syrian General Intelligence Directorate.

Got a lot of time for architects. Its not directly political but about how power and freedom is in the mundane details of everyday life. Architecture

( Read the Israeli architects Eyal Weizman book on Israel/ West Bank a while back and it was one of the best I've read on subject.

 

[LDC]

Assad has gone. There is no excuse for Israel actions now

The language of 'excuses' is very odd, and emblematic of problems the left has with understanding that politics is about power not ethics or morals. Of course they have political and military reasons (if that's what you meant by 'excuses' really). Ones you might dispute or disagree with, but to couch it in the language of 'excuses' is ridiculous.

 

[zahir]

From the KDP in Iraq

KDP ForeignRelations

Message from President Barzani

In the name of God, the Gracious, the Merciful

I saw a statement by Mr. Ahmed al-Shar'a about the Kurdish People in Syria, describing the Kurdish People as part of the homeland and partners in the future Syria.

We welcome this view of the Kurds and the future of Syria and hope that this will be the beginning of correcting the course of history and correcting the wrong treatment of the Kurdish People in Syria.This kind of view is conducive to building a strong Syria.

It is necessary for Kurds, Arabs and all other communities in Syria to take this opportunity to participate together in establishing a stable, free and democratic Syria.

Masoud Barzani
December 15, 2024

 

[Dystopiary]

Thanks again zahir for your posts.

 

[zahir]

Thread with a hostile view of al-Sharaa/al-Jolani's intentions towards the SDF

Karim Franceschi

From al-Qaeda footsoldier to ruler of Syria, Jolani didn’t just rise — he climbed the ladder of chaos.
Using subterfuge, betrayal, and strategy, he turned Idlib into his testing ground for statecraft.
I’ve dissected his playbook.
To see what’s coming, look at what’s been.
AANES faces two paths — dismantlement or war. There’s no third option.

Here’s how it all plays out ...

eta:
What isn't in doubt is that Turkish aggression means that the SDF are going to be negotiating a deal from a position of weakness.

 

[LDC]

Thread with a hostile view of al-Sharaa/al-Jolani's intentions towards the SDF

Karim Franceschi


eta:
What isn't in doubt is that Turkish aggression means that the SDF are going to be negotiating a deal from a position of weakness.

That's a bit of a depressing read!

 

[zahir]

That's a bit of a depressing read!

I'm not sure I'm convinced by it but I guess we'll see soon enough.

 

[Gramsci]

Israel to expand Golan Heights settlements after fall of Assad - BBC News

Israel says the move is necessary following the takeover of neighbouring Syria by an Islamist-led rebel alliance.

www-bbc-co-uk.cdn.ampproject.org

Israel not missing an opportunity to consolidate it's control over Golan heights,

Israel's government has approved a plan to encourage the expansion of settlements in the occupied Golan Heights.

Netanyahu said he wanted to double the population of the Golan Heights, which Israel seized during the 1967 Six-Day War and is considered illegally occupied under international law.

 

[zahir]

Reports of a general strike in Manbij which has been occupied by Turkish backed SNA forces.

General strike in Manbij againstcrimes of Turkish occupation mercenaries

The people of the city of Manbij in NE Syria announced a general strike, in protest against the state of security chaos that the city is witnessing after its occupation by the mercenaries of the Turkish occupation state.

hawarnews.com

On December 14, the people began a general strike, in protest against the crimes of the mercenaries of the Turkish occupation state (Al-Amshat and Al-Hamzat), including the kidnapping of Malak Qasim, member of the Kurdish Red Crescent, where the mercenaries attacked her house and kidnapped her and her brother. Her brother was released, while she was transferred to Afrin Canton to be tried there, according to information received by Jinha Agency.

 

[zahir]

Conscription ended (mostly)

Suhaib Zaino

Breaking | Commander Ahmed Al-Sharaa: Mandatory conscription will be abolished, the Syrian Army will become a volunteer-based force, with significant interest already shown.
•Defending the homeland is a duty, but volunteering should remain a matter of personal choice.
•Certain specializations may require short-term mandatory conscription in cases of extreme danger.

 

[agricola]

Israel to expand Golan Heights settlements after fall of Assad - BBC News

Israel says the move is necessary following the takeover of neighbouring Syria by an Islamist-led rebel alliance.

www-bbc-co-uk.cdn.ampproject.org

Israel not missing an opportunity to consolidate it's control over Golan heights,

Potentially very bad news for the Druze communities there who have refused to take Israeli citizenship; one would imagine they will face the same encouragement to "emigrate" now that Syria is "safe".

 

[Gramsci]

The language of 'excuses' is very odd, and emblematic of problems the left has with understanding that politics is about power not ethics or morals. Of course they have political and military reasons (if that's what you meant by 'excuses' really). Ones you might dispute or disagree with, but to couch it in the language of 'excuses' is ridiculous.

Well yes Israel does have political/ military reasons. Thought given my previous posts here that was a given

Do apologise if it didn't come out like that.

This is a message board and sometimes I will post stuff up as in a conversation. Rather than detailed analysis.

Looks to me that Israel wants to consolidate and safeguard its illegally occupied territories in Syria.

I don't think it's doing this at behest of any other power like US.

Nor are western powers going to reign it in. Given what's been happening in Gaza I think Israel government thinks it can do whatever it wants as it sees fit for it's foreign policy interests. Whilst accepting US and western powers support - diplomatic and military.

Is this helping Syrians start to rebuild there country? As you say it's about power not morals. Israel government don't care about Syrian people. As that's as you say about morals not hard headed power politics.

I actually think Israel government thinks what it's doing now is clever

I'd say, even on leave morality out of this, in long term it will cause more resentment against Israel state.

I think this full on bombing campaign. Destroying not just weapons but infrastructure, occupying more territory and saying publicly they are going to increase settlement building on Golan heights isn't good politics If one cares relations with neighbours

Over the long term that is.

 

[agricola]

Well yes Israel does have political/ military reasons. Thought given my previous posts here that was a given

Do apologise if it didn't come out like that.

This is a message board and sometimes I will post stuff up as in a conversation. Rather than detailed analysis.

Looks to me that Israel wants to consolidate and safeguard its illegally occupied territories in Syria.

I don't think it's doing this at behest of any other power like US.

Is this helping Syrians start to rebuild there country? As you say it's about power not morals. Israel government don't care about Syrian people. As that's as you say about morals not hard headed power politics.

I actually think Israel government thinks what it's doing now is clever

I'd say, even on leave morality out of this, in long term it will cause more resentment against Israel state.

I think this full on bombing campaign. Destroying not just weapons but infrastructure, occupying more territory and saying publicly they are going to increase settlement building on Golan heights isn't good politics If one cares relations with neighbours

Over the long term that is.

I agree that is what the Israeli government thinks is clever, but of course what that government thinks is clever is usually something that ends up being entirely self-defeating within a short period of time.

 

[Gramsci]

Potentially very bad news for the Druze communities there who have refused to take Israeli citizenship; one would imagine they will face the same encouragement to "emigrate" now that Syria is "safe".

I'm also wondering whether Israel government publicly saying increase of settlements could mean , as in West Bank, encroachment on other people land. Ie those Syrians who remained.

 

[zahir]

SDC statement

Statement on the Outcomes Issued by the Arab Ministerial Committee on Syria

The Syrian Democratic Council (SDC) supports the statement issued by the Arab Ministerial Committee at a meeting on Syria, held on December 14, 2024, in Aqaba, Jordan. The SDC values the Arab and international efforts made to establish the foundations of a comprehensive political solution. These efforts aim to ensure that the Syrian people can overcome their long-standing hardships. The SDC believes this will enable Syrians to move towards a future they truly deserve, after enduring immense suffering.

The statement highlights the urgent need to stop all military operations immediately. It also underscores the importance of ensuring that the rights of all groups within the Syrian population are respected, without any discrimination. These actions are critical steps toward achieving stability in the region.

It also aims to create a safe environment that paves the way for a comprehensive national dialogue involving all political and social powers. Additionally, it highlights the importance of empowering of women, youth, and civil society as essential actors in shaping Syria's future.

Furthermore, the SDC highlights the critical importance of a political transition based on UN Security Council Resolution 2254. It believes this resolution as a comprehensive framework for building a democratic and pluralistic Syria. It strives to establish a nation founded on the fundamental values of justice, equality, and adherence to the rule of law. It also supports efforts aimed at preserving and developing the institutions of the Syrian state. These initiatives aim to serve the interests of the people and prevent the country from descending into chaos. Moreover, it endorses enhancing counter-terrorism efforts to ensure Syria's security, stability, and the protection of its unity.

In a related context, the SDC believes that establishing conditions for the voluntary and safe return of refugees and displaced persons to their homes is crucial. This step is viewed as a significant humanitarian effort. This process requires providing the necessary guarantees to restore their dignity and rights, free from any form of retaliation or exclusion.

We, as members of the SDC, affirm our complete commitment to any sincere effort aimed at ending the Syrian tragedy. We renew our pledge to cooperate with various national and international parties. Our goal is to fulfill the aspirations of the Syrian people. This includes building a free, independent, and secure state. This state will meet the aspirations of its citizens. It will also restore Syria's position in both regional and international arenas. These efforts are vital for creating a strong and stable nation.

December 15, 2024
Syrian Democratic Council

eta: The SDC is talking about basing a political transition on UN Security Council Resolution 2254.

 

[ska invita]

Crimethinc prediction

 

[zahir]

Doubts about the new regime from Christians in the north east

Christians in NE Syria fear uncertainty after Assad’s fall

By Samer Yassin HASAKAH, Syria (North Press) – Christians in Hasakah Governorate, northeastern Syria, express fears of an uncertain future in the "new

npasyria.com

 

[teqniq]

Well I am absolutely shocked:

Israel did not want Assad removed from power, US officials tell Turkey

www.middleeasteye.net

 

[zahir]

Civilians in Syria's Manbij face rights violations amid SNA control

MANBIJ, Syria (North Press) – Manbij, a city in northern Syria, has become the center of escalating human rights violations following its takeover by

npasyria.com

Manbij, a city in northern Syria, has become the center of escalating human rights violations following its takeover by Turkish-backed armed opposition factions, aka the Syrian National Army (SNA) last week, local media reported on Sunday.

Reports indicate a surge in theft, arbitrary arrests, and property confiscation, raising alarm among residents and human rights organizations.

In response, Manbij residents and activists launched a citywide strike on Sunday, calling it the “Strike for Dignity,” to denounce the abuses committed by the Turkish-backed SNA factions.

Protesters demanded immediate action to address these violations and protect the city’s civilians.

On Dec. 11, a human rights organization detailed numerous infractions perpetrated by these factions, urging accountability for those involved.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) highlighted a “wave of abuses” sweeping Manbij. “Hundreds of civilians have been subjected to armed robbery, forced seizures, and threats by the National Army factions,” the SOHR stated.

Many of these accusations are based on alleged ties to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), despite no evidence of such links for many victims.

The reports also revealed that civilians have been forcibly evicted from their homes, and their properties arbitrarily confiscated. These abuses extend beyond individuals accused of SDF affiliations, targeting innocent residents with no involvement in the ongoing conflict.

Last week, the SNA factions launched an offensive on the city of Manbij, and committed theft and vandalism targeting the Kurdish population’s homes and killed injured fighters of the SDF.

On Dec. 11, Mazloum Abdi, Commander in Chief of the SDF, announced the withdrawal of SDF forces from Manbij. The move was aimed at facilitating a ceasefire across all Syrian territories and paving the way for a political process to shape the country’s future.

 

[Gramsci]

By far the best discussion I've seen of the current moment in Syria, with Rim Turkmani, Joseph Daher, Nadim Houry, and Patrick Haenni.

Sorry you have put up a lot a of good links and I haven't the time to read all.

Watched this tonight and last night.

Yes its the very good discussion.

Some issues / points of view from the speakers.

At end the host said he's tired of the cynicism. The just you wait and it will be all terrible view. This is opportunity for Syria to get something better.

Second at end, this was discussion about Syrians from their point of view. But also as one of them said the nefarious actions of Israel need dealing with. As its potentially destabilising the country. Call for sanctions against it.

Also that last thing Israel wants is a democratic Syria as issue of Palestine might come up in future. Pressure from below.

On HTS.

( Summary of points)

Its weak leadership.

It had to accommodate itself to local pressure in Idlib. Demos calling for action to get back homes held by Assad forces recently

To run Idlib it relied on NGOs and professional associations who managed to remain independent to HTS.

Its economic policies are not that different from later Assad. Neo liberal. Are now talking to business ( merchant class). Those business close to Assad no but those who retained some independence from the former regime yes.

HTS did not have some sudden conversion to tolerance. There move from hardline conservative islam was more to do with need to accommodate local populations. Not an ideological change.

This demonstrates that in the civil society never went away during the war. It could exert pressure on HTS regime in Idlib.

So in future HTS isn't to be seen as powerful as it appears.

There is possibility that civil society organisations ( bottom up pressure ) could effect how HTS act. ( HTS top down organising. )

For future need for:

UN plus Arab League long term support. Giving a vision for the Syrian people. And I assume help civil society in face of armed supposed moderate jihadists. Bottom up organising of civil society.

Plan with international help for a process that ordinary Syrian people can support.

Including justice for crimes of last years. As one commentator a lot of reports of people taking justice into their own hands. With killings going on. Not by armed groups as such but after all these years personal hatreds coming to the fore. I think the argument is that this low level violence is destabilising. There is needed some kind of way of dealing with the past that can stop this.

More was said.

Also think the economy was seen as important How to rebuild it.

Some of rebel held areas use Turkish money for example. So there are practical issues with rebuilding a national economy again

Get impression Syria is country of many different groups. That a secular civil society was strong and was non sectarian. But its taken a pummeling over last years. But has survived. Just.

 

[zahir]

This interview from 2017 gives some background on Manbij.

Syria and the Left

Behind the humanitarian disaster of the Syrian civil war is a political crisis the Left urgently needs to understand.

jacobin.com

YUSEF KHALIL You’ve visited the liberated areas of Syria and you’ve witnessed the self-organization of ordinary Syrians. Can you tell us more about how people organized themselves during the initial protests, and also how they organized after the regime was forced to withdraw its repressive apparatus from large swaths of Syria?

YASSER MUNIF Yeah. I spent several months in Syria, mostly in Manbij, back in 2013 and 2014. I was there during, I think, an important period for Manbij. It was several months after the liberation of the city. The city was liberated peacefully, without any infighting within the city, but the demonstrations were very, very large, and the security and the police and the state apparatus felt threatened and they fled from the city. With them, a lot of the public employees also fled from the city. The city was left without resources, without expertise.

It’s a quite large city in the Syrian context. It has around two hundred thousand inhabitants with another additional two hundred thousand internally displaced. That’s a population of almost half a million. The revolutionaries were basically trying to create institutions, political institutions and economic institutions, to make their city livable. It was, on the one hand, a form of decolonial politics, decolonizing the spaces that were previously occupied by the Syrian regime, and also decolonizing culture and institutions and the minds.

That’s what I perceived and witnessed in Syria. It’s a process of getting rid of the old culture, and acquiring a new decolonial politics, and rethinking politics and activism and organizing in different ways. People were able to create democratic spaces to a certain extent. I don’t want to make it an ideal space. There were obviously problems, but in many ways, what people were able to achieve was quite incredible, despite the lack of resources.

They were able to create a revolutionary council and a revolutionary court. They created one of the first labor unions in the country, a free and independent labor union. It had, I think, around a thousand members. They were rebuilding the city from the bottom up, because many of them didn’t necessarily have the expertise. Many of the public employees and public officers left the city because they felt that they were threatened. They were able to keep some of them, but many also left, and so with that, they also lost a lot of the expertise that is needed to run the water company, and the grain silos, and so on and so forth. They were creating or recreating all these different spaces...

YUSEF KHALIL What still exists of those structures of self-organization today, whether in Manbij or in other parts of Syria?

YASSER MUNIF Manbij was taken by ISIS shortly after I left in 2014, early 2014, but even during that period of occupation, people were organizing and they were protesting. ISIS was actually scared of that organizing and were threatened by the population. People were able to organize a major strike during the ISIS period.

Now, the city has been liberated from ISIS. It’s under the control of the Democratic Union Party (PYD)...

 

[Larry O'Hara]

Well no, but that's got nothing to do with how Israel will ultimately act under these circumstances. Damascus isn't much more than 100 miles from Jerusalem and they definitely consider Syria their backyard. Many Israeli eyes and no doubt (in civvies) hands and boots are no doubt tilting towards Syria just now.

Yes: and thereby underlining Israel is a live settler-colonial project that must be dismembered. End of.