And next, Syria?

[Patteran]

Bit more on the SDF - plenty of supportive quotes about it online from the PUK/Talabani faction in Iraqi Kurdistan KRG, emphasising the US support, & already reporting (without evidence) an airlift of munitions.

- Lahur's a Millwall fan, apparently.

 

[Paul peace]

This was on the BBC site:

I thought it was unlikely to spread to Syria - but was I wrong?

In a spectacular way

 

[camouflage]

Syrian Democratic Forces announced - Kurdish, Arab, Assyrian united front & joint command, challenging the 'two choices - Assad or ISIS' dichotomy. Twitter suggests they'll be NATO backed, but I can't currently see a source for that.

Statement from seemingly verifiable YPG account.

View attachment 77975

Interesting that they've led with the formation of yet another military group, rather than a political party. Are political parties other than Ba'ath still banned in Syria?

 

[J Ed]

Syrian Democratic Forces announced - Kurdish, Arab, Assyrian united front & joint command, challenging the 'two choices - Assad or ISIS' dichotomy. Twitter suggests they'll be NATO backed, but I can't currently see a source for that.

Statement from seemingly verifiable YPG account.

View attachment 77975

Euphrates Volcano = Burkan Al-Furat

This group will still be like 80-90% though I would imagine that the hope of this new formation is that it rallies more support from Arab fighters

 

[Patteran]

Euphrates Volcano = Burkan Al-Furat

This group will still be like 80-90% though I would imagine that the hope of this new formation is that it rallies more support from Arab fighters

And a more palatable moniker for Congress & Parliament, press & public, perhaps.

Interesting that they've led with the formation of yet another military group, rather than a political party. Are political parties other than Ba'ath still banned in Syria?

Don't think other parties are banned, but they're excluded from political office - there's still an opposition coalition in Damascus. I suspect it's easier to agree on existential threats than on peace time governance. A unified military response is viewed as more urgent, maybe.

 

[butchersapron]

I suspect the SDF is pretty much an open formal recognition of reconfigurations that had already taken place on the ground in the areas above and around raqqa - and that will be it's immediate aim rather than any anti-regime action. I suspect that the apparent stalemate in thar area over the last few months was actually really a build up of supplies, men and attempst to build the goodwill a kurdih led attack on a largely sunni arab city/area would require. It would also suggests that the YPG commanders have been persuaded that all the above now exists in significant enough quantities that there is minimal chance of such an operation threatening the areas they control, or that they can deal with the suicide attacks such as we saw in kobani not long ago. There is probably a bit of US led hurry up going on as well.

 

[Patteran]

I suspect the SDF is pretty much an open formal recognition of reconfigurations that had already taken place on the ground in the areas above and around raqqa - and that will be it's immediate aim rather than any anti-regime action. I suspect that the apparent stalemate in thar area over the last few months was actually really a build up of supplies, men and attempst to build the goodwill a kurdih led attack on a largely sunni arab city/area would require. It would also suggests that the YPG commanders have been persuaded that all the above now exists in significant enough quantities that there is minimal chance of such an operation threatening the areas they control, or that they can deal with the suicide attacks such as we saw in kobani not long ago. There is probably a bit of US led hurry up going on as well.

What do you make of the NCB in Damascus & abroad, BA? The reports by Manna from the Geneva Talks etc seem insightful.

 

[butchersapron]

What do you make of the NCB in Damascus & abroad, BA? The reports by Manna from the Geneva Talks etc seem insightful.

Hard to tell really with all the political jostling and games. I know that a lot of the fighting groups think they're a bunch of time-wasting opportunist politicians - and some think a lot lot worse.

 

[camouflage]

And a more palatable moniker for Congress & Parliament, press & public, perhaps.




Don't think other parties are banned, but they're excluded from political office - there's still an opposition coalition in Damascus. I suspect it's easier to agree on existential threats than on peace time governance. A unified military response is viewed as more urgent, maybe.

Let's hope they will pool their efforts with the coalition participated in by Russia and the Syrian state. Meaningful political reformation of said state can only proceed once the Takfiris are out the way imo, destroying the state will leave yet another screaming void patrolled by maniacs and fanatics. On the other hand, if a political alternative to the Ba'athists is not undertaken now within the context of said state, then how will it be possible for the Syrian people to choose to remove the Assad family from the levers of power without killing the host?

 

[Patteran]

Hard to tell really with all the political jostling and games. I know that a lot of the fighting groups think they're a bunch of time-wasting opportunist politicians - and some think a lot lot worse.

I know what you mean, but they are still getting lifted & jailed, with all the horror that implies in Damascus. And no one else is talking with any authority or criticism about the machinations of Britain, France & the U.S behind the scenes.

 

[butchersapron]

I know what you mean, but they are still getting lifted & jailed, with all the horror that implies in Damascus. And no one else is talking with any authority or criticism about the machinations of Britain, France & the U.S behind the scenes.

Vicious circle really as a lot of the suspicion directed at them comes precisely from their remaining (on the whole) in Damascus and having some form of relation/dialogue with regime elements - that is, from them taking their non-violent opposition and that it entails in that situation seriously.

 

[J Ed]

Let's hope they will pool their efforts with the coalition participated in by Russia and the Syrian state. Meaningful political reformation of said state can only proceed once the Takfiris are out the way imo, destroying the state will leave yet another screaming void patrolled by maniacs and fanatics. On the other hand, if a political alternative to the Ba'athists is not undertaken now within the context of said state, then how will it be possible for the Syrian people to choose to remove the Assad family from the levers of power without killing the host?

I don't agree with this, while an Assad state win would be genuinely preferable for the Kurds relative to ISIS or Jahbat Al-Nusra victory if Assad were able to control Kurdish areas again then he would undoubtedly return to the repression and murder of Kurds that went on prior to the war. I think that the best thing to do, from the point of view of the YPG and allies, is to align with neither side which seems to be what they have opted for.

 

[Patteran]

Let's hope they will pool their efforts with the coalition participated in by Russia and the Syrian state. Meaningful political reformation of said state can only proceed once the Takfiris are out the way imo, destroying the state will leave yet another screaming void patrolled by maniacs and fanatics. On the other hand, if a political alternative to the Ba'athists is not undertaken now within the context of said state, then how will it be possible for the Syrian people to choose to remove the Assad family from the levers of power without killing the host?

I agree with you about the principle of a primacy of politics. I disagree about 'hope' being associated with Russian involvement. My opinions are weightless, but I'm against any foreign military intervention in Syria.

 

[camouflage]

I don't agree with this, while an Assad state win would be genuinely preferable for the Kurds relative to ISIS or Jahbat Al-Nusra victory if Assad were able to control Kurdish areas again then he would undoubtedly return to the repression and murder of Kurds that went on prior to the war. I think that the best thing to do, from the point of view of the YPG and allies, is to align with neither side which seems to be what they have opted for.

Fair enough, I guess my position is that to rearrange the furniture it is first necessary to not have the house burn down- like it or not the Assad regime and the SAA are a linchpin in this structure and there is currently no alternative to burning rubble. Getting on with the politics of change now could mean that the Syrian state is not an 'Assad state' going forward... but of course that depends on how the Syrian people would vote, and currently (according to what I've read anyway) Assad would win elections even if all areas of Syria could currently partake. One more proxy army to oppose Assad, Iran or Russia or blaze the way forward for Qatari pipelines or NATO relevance or whatever isn't going to address that. But as stated above, nothing we say or think here means fuck-all to the outcome.

 

[Coolfonz]

I suspect the SDF is pretty much an open formal recognition of reconfigurations that had already taken place on the ground in the areas above and around raqqa - and that will be it's immediate aim rather than any anti-regime action. I suspect that the apparent stalemate in thar area over the last few months was actually really a build up of supplies, men and attempst to build the goodwill a kurdih led attack on a largely sunni arab city/area would require. It would also suggests that the YPG commanders have been persuaded that all the above now exists in significant enough quantities that there is minimal chance of such an operation threatening the areas they control, or that they can deal with the suicide attacks such as we saw in kobani not long ago. There is probably a bit of US led hurry up going on as well.

Do you think this is an attempt to form a kind of third unified force? Like 1 Assad and Russia 2 Isis/beards and 3 Kurds secular assorted others. To effectively try and stop Russia bombing them?

 

[camouflage]

Do you think this is an attempt to form a kind of third unified force? Like 1 Assad and Russia 2 Isis/beards and 3 Kurds secular assorted others. To effectively try and stop Russia bombing them?

Definite attempt to align the Kurds and others before they throw-in with the Russian effort imo.

 

[elbows]

Interesting to note the increasing trend for significant volumes of commercial air traffic between Europe/North America and the Gulf/Indian Ocean/SE Asia (certain carriers in particular) to route over the Mediterranean-Egypt-Saudi Arabia as oppose to skirting Syria on the Turkey-Iran route (several air traffic authorities have issued NOTAMs in the last few days suggesting the area be given a wide berth). Difference between the same time this morning last week and today

Some traffic is staying further north, passing through the 'stans' (whilst a significant volume, mainly to/from the 'Far East', continues to route much further north over Russia as it has done for the last couple of decades plus).

I had a brief live look a day or two ago and the trend wasn't very noticeable at that time.

But on the very same note, a euronews story today:

The cruise missiles fired from the Caspian Sea by Russia and destined for Syria have heightened concerns that commercial flights in the region could be put in danger.

A Russian animation shows how the deadly weapons follow a path over Iran and Iraq a route for many carriers that links Europe, the Middle East and Asia.

The International Civil Aviation Organisation, the UN’s air safety arm said some airlines had already opted to fly alternative routes.

Eurocontrol, the pan European air traffic control agency told airlines there had been no significant change within Europe but officials from the organisation and the ICAO have met to draw up contingency plans in event of further disruptions.

As many as 800 flights a day could be affected if the heavily used corridors are deemed unsafe, or under extreme circumstances, become unavailable.

Using alternative routes would mean longer flights and increase fuel consumption significantly.

Russian cruise missiles strikes prompt global aviation officials to issue safety alerts

 

[2hats]

I had a brief live look a day or two ago and the trend wasn't very noticeable at that time.

The European Aviation Safety Agency issued an operational safety bulletin last Friday flagging up the potential hazard of the launches but not providing any specific recommendations.

 

[Coolfonz]

Report on www.amnesty.org alleging YPG village clearances bulldozing etc

 

[butchersapron]

Do you think this is an attempt to form a kind of third unified force? Like 1 Assad and Russia 2 Isis/beards and 3 Kurds secular assorted others. To effectively try and stop Russia bombing them?

I think it's to continue the push to raqqa on a more stable basis in order to get wider US based backing. I don't think the russian bombing really comes into it give leading elements of the YPG appeared to welcome the russian attacks. And the FSA involved must surely know russia is going to do what it wants regardless of any name change. As for becoming a third force, well they already are that, but this can be sold elsewhere as having the potential for being precisely that on a wider political level and so at some later date being able to intervene in the war in the rest of the country and a non assad/isis /jan basis. That would have to be political-military though. I think we're a long way from that even being potentially possible if this doesn't prove to be a flag of convenience.

 

[butchersapron]

Report on www.amnesty.org alleging YPG village clearances bulldozing etc

See last posts on this thread.

 

[J Ed]

 

[not-bono-ever]

its all going to be ok. jeb bush wants to confront russia in uncompromising terms, boot out assad using a coalition and reduce the impact of iran in the region by rsstricting their access to iraq and Syria. and china as well

easy peasy. all it takes us some sensible thinking and this whole mess can be fixed.

 

[Idris2002]

its all going to be ok. jeb bush wants to confront russia in uncompromising terms, boot out assad using a coalition and reduce the impact of iran in the region by rsstricting their access to iraq and Syria. and china as well

easy peasy. all it takes us some sensible thinking and this whole mess can be fixed.

 

[Coolfonz]

On a slight tangent this is probably the worst media start up thing i have seen in a while...`Syria deeply.` Words fail etc...
Syria News | Syria Deeply, Covering the Crisis

 

[NoXion]

Well, it's certainly a silly-sounding name to me.

 

[Geri]

'I got Syria so wrong' - Article by Frederic Hof, former special advisor for transition in Syria at the U.S. Department of State.

 

[ffsear]

Should have listened to the man 2 years ago!

 

[butchersapron]

YPG General Commander on number of things.

Key for this thread seems to be a) holding back on anti-regime rhetoric b) Many references to coming assault that i think we can assume means raqqa.

 

[J Ed]

How Putin Adopted Obama’s Way of War