After Ukraine, what’s next?

[MrCurry]

Yes it’s too soon to write off Ukraine, perhaps they will successfully repel the Russian invasion, but assuming they don’t - what’s the next step for Putin? Will he really be content to stop having ”solved the Ukraine question“ and brought it back within the Russian sphere, or will his forces be trundling north through Belarus to go into Lithuania, Latvia & Estonia?

The territory of those countries is just as close to Moscow as Ukraine is, so if this really is about creating a buffer zone to prevent NATO missiles ever coming within an uncomfortable range of his seat of power, it’s logical he will also want to go into the Baltic states. Maybe that is why the Russian Air Force has been strangely lacking in their input to the Ukraine assault? Keeping their planes and weapons available for greater challenges yet to come.

Redrawing the map is clearly Putin’s goal, and no country or coalition seems likely to step up to confront nuclear armed Russia directly, so why would Putin stop after Ukraine? What further sanctions or negative consequences can he face when the West has already made him a pariah because of Ukraine, and if his military has the strength to take on and beat one country at a time, he could expand his empire as far as he chooses, no?

 

[JimW]

Ukraine will be a security headache even after military victory so doubt he'd want to stretch his forces any thinner, and also suspect that while the Baltic states fall into what he might see as the Russian orbit, they're not "Little Russia" to him like Ukraine so maybe not quite so pressing to bring the back into the fold.

 

[Dogsauce]

He might do more to shore up Lukashenko in Belarus, put troops and hardware there. I suspect the decent attempt at a ‘liberal’ coup in Belarus may have even been the prompt for this current aggression, like Putin could see the domino falling and felt encircled. There will definitely be a desire to keep them in the sphere as a buffer.

 

[chilango]

The Baltic States and "protecting their Russian minorities" whilst "lifting the encirclement of Kaliningrad by hostile NATO forces" must be on Putin's bucket list.

It's a hell of an escalation though and I'm not sure he'll feel confident enough to try it given how Ukraine is going.

 

[zahir]

Moldova probably. They've already attacked two Moldovan cargo ships.

 

[MrCurry]

Thanks - no one who’s replied seems to think next on his list might be detours into the Baltic states, so that’s good.

 

[Pickman's model]

Retaking Russian America

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

And Corfu

 

[frogwoman]

georgia.

 

[Flavour]

Baltic states are NATO members. Moldova is not. Think shoring up / consolidating the "expanded Russia" (with some or all of Ukraine + Belarus) will be priority before trying anything else

 

[bimble]

Massive uptick in people purchasing passports in Slovakia this past week I read this morning, and many of them paying loads extra for the fast track ones, totally out of the usual routine.
I imagine it’s the same in many nearby / bordering countries, People genuinely scared, making provisions if not plans to just in case things spill over in their direction.

(I’m not suggesting this is likely just that a lot of people living there & no doubt elsewhere in the region clearly do think it possible)

 

[UnderOpenSky]

I posted some of his stuff on the Quora thread and depressing as it is, I think this Russians take on things is very interesting

Could Putinism survive Putin himself after his death in Russia?

Dima Vorobiev's answer: “Could Putinism survive Putin himself after his death in Russia?” SHORT ANSWER Putinism as a non-ideological personalist post-Soviet authoritarianism won’t survive our President. Putinism as a State-oligarchical market-based system pinned around the narrative of anti-We...

www.quora.com

 

[The39thStep]

Retaking Russian America

Alaska?

 

[Pickman's model]

Alaska?

tell me what she says

 

[tim]

Retaking Russian America

A popular topic of conversation on the streets of Moscow

 

[Bingoman]

Finland?

 

[Rimbaud]

Dugin's "Foundation of Geopolitics" might offer an insight into Putin's thinking. A summary can be found here:

Foundations of Geopolitics - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

If successful in Ukraine, the most achievable of the goals listed would be dismemberment of Georgia and annexation of Moldova, and incorporating Belarus into Russia alongside Ukraine. Putin's "Union State" idea seems to hint at this intention.

Annexation of Southern Finland seems unlikely due to Finland joining NATO, integrating Latvia and Lithuania into Russia also unlikely for similar reasons.

Likewise, Russia can't afford to antagonise China so I doubt they will do anything in Mongolia.

If Russia is successful in incorporating Ukraine, Moldova and Belarus into Russia, then within Europe they will focus on cultivating economic dependency from Germany and cultivating a Berlin-Moscow axis, while seeking to break Europe off from the US with the ultimate goal of abolishing NATO, at which distant point they could consider reincorporating the Baltics.

Within the Caucuses, they will eventually annex Georgia and build a Moscow-Yerevan-Tehran axis with Iran and Armenia, which will ultimately seek to dissolve Azerbaijan or give it to Iran.

Within the Balkans, they will aim to build an alliance of Orthodox Christian states such as Greece, Serbia, North Macedonia, Romania and aim to break up Bosnia so Republika Srpska unites with Serbia. This would be used to cement Russian spiritual leadership under the politicised Orthodox Church and likely be accompanied by misinformation campaigns aimed at getting Conservative Orthodox Christians in those countries to agitate for Russian interests.

This seems to be the Eurasian strategic vision; however the hope of creating a Berlin-Moscow axis would seem to be very optimistic and Putin apparently misjudged German dependency on Russia.

Incorporation of Ukraine, Moldova, and Belarus followed by dismemberment of Georgia seems like a likely near term consequence of Russian success. After that they would probably consolidate and use their stronger position to try and cultivate economic dependencies within Europe, while continuing misinformation campaigns aimed at accentuating divisions in the west.

 

[existentialist]

A popular topic of conversation on the streets of Moscow

I couldn't help while watching that wondering whether this was some peculiarly Russian way of having a general conversation about annexing lands by force...

 

[Dystopiary]

Finland?

No chance.

 

[Dogsauce]

The bellends on those shit political shows in Russia (with sets that resemble some third-rate national lottery draw show) reckon that there will be more ‘special operations‘ and Russia will decide ‘how much of the west is left’

 

[RD2003]

The bellends on those shit political shows in Russia (with sets that resemble some third-rate national lottery draw show) reckon that there will be more ‘special operations‘ and Russia will decide ‘how much of the west is left’

I hope people realise that 'the west' is being trolled by 'Russia.'

Medvedev appears to be the lead troll.

 

[existentialist]

The bellends on those shit political shows in Russia (with sets that resemble some third-rate national lottery draw show) reckon that there will be more ‘special operations‘ and Russia will decide ‘how much of the west is left’

"In yer dreams, Putin"

 

[kebabking]

Long term? This is Russia's Suez moment. Economically, demographically, politically/diplomatically, Russia - as the dominant military and political power in Eastern Europe and Central Asia - is fucked. The question is now (will be) about China: after Putin, can (western?) Russia swallow it's pride and become a European state, or will it either be dismembered by China, with western Russia forming a client buffer state, and Eastern and Northern Russia becoming puppet states under defacto Chinese puppet states, or will Russia as a whole (including Belarus and whatever bits of Ukraine and Georgia it's managed to retain?) run headlong into China's arms as a willing, desperate client state.

The days of Russia Riding the Dragon are over. The question is whether it will be the Dragon's pet, or it's next meal.

Short term? Pretty much everyone out here - NATO base in Poland, with senior people from across the eastern states and Finland and Sweden - reckons that Russia will conduct a two pronged strategy in Ukraine: continue to grind out a result in the east, but also to attempt another decapitation manoeuvre against Kiyv.

Everyone here thinks that internally, Russia is feeling humiliated by their lack of progress in the war, and the ability of the west to wreak havoc on their economy. Everyone thinks that Russia will lash out in some way to prove that they are still the Big Dog. There are any number of options, all as likely, unlikely, and problematic as each other - Finland, Lithuania, Moldova...

 

[Pickman's model]

Long term? This is Russia's Suez moment. Economically, demographically, politically/diplomatically, Russia - as the dominant military and political power in Eastern Europe and Central Asia - is fucked. The question is now (will be) about China: after Putin, can (western?) Russia swallow it's pride and become a European state, or will it either be dismembered by China, with western Russia forming a client buffer state, and Eastern and Northern Russia becoming puppet states under defacto Chinese puppet states, or will Russia as a whole (including Belarus and whatever bits of Ukraine and Georgia it's managed to retain?) run headlong into China's arms as a willing, desperate client state.

The days of Russia Riding the Dragon are over. The question is whether it will be the Dragon's pet, or it's next meal.

Short term? Pretty much everyone out here - NATO base in Poland, with senior people from across the eastern states and Finland and Sweden - reckons that Russia will conduct a two pronged strategy in Ukraine: continue to grind out a result in the east, but also to attempt another decapitation manoeuvre against Kiyv.

Everyone here thinks that internally, Russia is feeling humiliated by their lack of progress in the war, and the ability of the west to wreak havoc on their economy. Everyone thinks that Russia will lash out in some way to prove that they are still the Big Dog. There are any number of options, all as likely, unlikely, and problematic as each other - Finland, Lithuania, Moldova...

The reason suez was a moment was that despite military success Britain - and France and Israel - retreated and ended the conflict after pressure from the usa, ussr and un, plus opposition to the war at home. Not seeing anyone tell Russia what to do and be listened to

 

[Dogsauce]

, but also to attempt another decapitation manoeuvre against Kiyv.

I think Zelensky will be looking over his shoulder for the rest of his life, not only for the threat from the Russian state but even in the event that that undergoes regime change, from those elements that have profited very handsomely off it.

I do wonder what the situation would be if he was taken out, the very public face of Ukraine, who else do they have to fill his shoes and beg for help? The boxer guy?

 

[RD2003]

Moldova probably. They've already attacked two Moldovan cargo ships.

Moldova in turmoil...


The Guardian’s Europe correspondent Jon Henley rounds up developments in Ukraine’s neighbour Moldova today:

Moldova’s pro-western government has resigned after 18 months in power after a series of economic and political crises that have engulfed the country in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The prime minister, Natalia Gavrilita, told a news conference on Friday that the “time has come for me to announce my resignation”, adding that no one could have expected her government “to manage so many crises caused by Russian aggression”. The president, Maia Sandu, accepted Gavrilita’s resignation.

Hours earlier, the government said a Russian missile had violated Moldovan airspace and summoned Russia’s ambassador to protest.

Moldova’s intelligence service said on Thursday that Russia was acting to destabilise the country, after the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said Kyiv had intercepted a “plan for the destruction of Moldova” by Russian intelligence.

EU leaders accepted Moldova as a membership candidate last year in a diplomatic triumph for Sandu. Russia, however, has troops in Moldova’s breakaway region of Transdniestria and opposes any move to join the 27-nation bloc.

 

[_Russ_]

War never ends, its all an inexorable march to mass destruction with a few survivors left to start the cycle again. the cycles themselves only ending when we have destroyed enough of the natural world that the survivors of the last cycle now with no supporting man made infrastructure and technology can not continue as there is no food or safe water for them.

The elite may possibly have escaped to Mars by then (highly unlikely imo but who knows we still have some time left), but I very much doubt they will have a bright future

 

[DownwardDog]

Short term? Pretty much everyone out here - NATO base in Poland, with senior people from across the eastern states and Finland and Sweden - reckons that Russia will conduct a two pronged strategy in Ukraine: continue to grind out a result in the east, but also to attempt another decapitation manoeuvre against Kiyv.

To some extent the RF has to run the clock out to January 2024 and hope Trump gets back in because Ukraine will be getting SFA from him unless they can come up with something he can use to impeach Biden.

 

[Dogsauce]

To some extent the RF has to run the clock out to January 2024 and hope Trump gets back in because Ukraine will be getting SFA from him unless they can come up with something he can use to impeach Biden.

Jan 2025? Election is Nov 24, inauguration 25.

 

[Rimbaud]

Not sure if this needs it's own thread, but surprised to see nothing about events in Kosovo recently.

I want to share two articles, the first from a couple of months back about how the Serbian far right have seen the war in Ukraine as an opportunity to retake Kosovo.

Serbia’s far right seizes on Putin’s war to push retaking Kosovo

Belgrade’s ultra-nationalists use Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to boost bid to disrupt talks on recognizing Pristina.

www.politico.eu

And now several NATO soldiers have been wounded in Serbian protests in Kosovo, following an election boycott which resulted in the largely Serbian part of Kosovo returning Albanian representatives on a 4% turnout.

Kosovo: Fresh clashes as Nato troops called in to northern towns

Serb protesters are angry at ethnic Albanian mayors being installed in Serb-majority areas.

www.bbc.com

There are also threats of succession from Bosnia by the leader of Republika Srpska.

Serb leader Dodik threatens to secede from Bosnia-Herzegovina

Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik threatened to secede from Bosnia-Herzegovina if the territorial integrity of Republika Srpska was at stake.President of...

www.dailysabah.com

Seems pretty likely that Russia's FSB will be doing all it can to stir things up to distract from Ukraine as well.