a new british civil war?
- Thread starter Pickman's model
- Start date
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A modernist
Depends on what happens with Brexit obviously. I honestly believe the result of a 2nd referendum would be accepted as we now know the reality and facts. If a 2nd vote was another Leave victory I’d 100% accept it. I never have the first as we were poorly informed and lied to.
A civil war I seriously doubt but if article 50 were to be revoked Lib Dem style the far right will probably start terror attacks imo. I wouldn’t be surprised if they are prepared for this already. There was a serious threat of far right terrorism before the referendum.
Something on the scale of the 2011 riots is certainly on the cards. That could be days or weeks of anarchy and scores being settled but all out war I can’t see.
Well done Cameron.
A civil war I seriously doubt but if article 50 were to be revoked Lib Dem style the far right will probably start terror attacks imo. I wouldn’t be surprised if they are prepared for this already. There was a serious threat of far right terrorism before the referendum.
Something on the scale of the 2011 riots is certainly on the cards. That could be days or weeks of anarchy and scores being settled but all out war I can’t see.
Well done Cameron.
Flavour
hang the bankers
There are maybe a handful of nutters who'd resort to insurrectionary violence in the event of brexit being canceled. I don't think there's any danger of a cohesive militant opposition with farage posting threatening videos bin laden style from his underground lair in deepest east anglia. There's more danger of more general social tension igniting in deprived inner city areas as an increasingly "hostile environment" combines with economic downturn that hits the poorest first and hardest
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Dillinger4
Es gibt Zeit
I believe there are interesting historical parralells to be drawn. Not the English Civil Wars, but the break from Rome under Henry VIII, and the following Reformation. Which of course, was a precursor to the later civil wars.
One risk on the horizon is that on 31 October, half the country thinks we've left on No Deal terms and the other half of the country doesn't. This could arise if there were legal uncertainty over the Government's approach going into that deadline. You would then have a split Parliament and populace. The EU would also have a view. The monarch, civil society, the Army, the Police, the Border Force, etc may need to decide who they were following, if it remained unresolved. And this could all happen in a very concentrated and hectic period of time. This needn't lead to Civil War, but it would be a very dangerous situation.
The other risk is that the Liberal Democrats win any GE with a majority with, say, 35% of the vote. They would then have to enact their insane revocation policy. 35% of the population would overrule 52%. In fact, given the GE would probably have lower turnout than the 2016 referendum, it would be even worse than that numerically. The arrogance of these people knows no bounds. We should call them the Civil War Party.
The other risk is that the Liberal Democrats win any GE with a majority with, say, 35% of the vote. They would then have to enact their insane revocation policy. 35% of the population would overrule 52%. In fact, given the GE would probably have lower turnout than the 2016 referendum, it would be even worse than that numerically. The arrogance of these people knows no bounds. We should call them the Civil War Party.
Cloo
Banana for scale
I just think people couldn't be arsed to have a civil war. While everyone's very ready to threaten people online these days, faced with the option of actually doing so face to face, they'd probably rather not.
Whether we might see greater far-right terrorism - yes, a distinct possibility, even if we leave (ironically, perhaps especially). Because things will be shit and they'll be blaming foreigners/immigrants/liberals and may be able to find enough angry people to attack said/places associated with said.
Whether we might see greater far-right terrorism - yes, a distinct possibility, even if we leave (ironically, perhaps especially). Because things will be shit and they'll be blaming foreigners/immigrants/liberals and may be able to find enough angry people to attack said/places associated with said.
friedaweed
Me and me girl named Jane
likesfish
You can't park here sir
It's a massive ball ache to collect ammo for one company to go on the range let alone start a war you could storm the local TA armory and get a few hundred rifles but the nearest ammo dump from Brighton is somewhere in Kent! and there was hardly an overwhelming supply of ammo there opened a huge armored bunker to discover a lonely pallet of ammo
.
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Rob Ray
Weight is meaningless
Yeah that's always the thing, a bit of minor rioting by the usual Tommeh suspects is pretty realistic to expect, and possibly some neo-fascist type terror campaigning, but the political right doesn't usually do mass riots for the very good reason that they're ...
a) predominantly grey-haired and a bit flabby to go chasing around
b) actually own things and therefore disapprove of breaking them
c) tend to feel that the police/army are there in their interests and if things really get out of hand can do a coup for them
d) wouldn't have a clue how to arm themselves (apart from maybe farmers, farmers' mums and this guy).
The likes of Brendan O'Neill and Guido tank-fetishist Fawkes think of themselves as generals but their intended pitchfork-waving mob is this lot:
a) predominantly grey-haired and a bit flabby to go chasing around
b) actually own things and therefore disapprove of breaking them
c) tend to feel that the police/army are there in their interests and if things really get out of hand can do a coup for them
d) wouldn't have a clue how to arm themselves (apart from maybe farmers, farmers' mums and this guy).
The likes of Brendan O'Neill and Guido tank-fetishist Fawkes think of themselves as generals but their intended pitchfork-waving mob is this lot:
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i can remember the (now dead) historian AJP Taylor saying that the more people talked of war the more likely it is that war will happen. Although he was referring to the international situation, not civil war, the advice he offered is worth noting because he was registering an appreciation of the fact that it if the political conditions of war exist within societies, the prospect of one igniting is absolutely realistic.
Civil wars can sometimes be a necessary for human progress, but a civil war in the UK to determine which brand of capitalism (American or European) will continue to oppress us when the fighting stops would be utterly ludicrous.
If it does get to a stage where everything is about to kick off, we should all argue instead for a punch up between Boris and the shadow chancellor McDonnell, but not on Queensberry rules - McDonnell should be able to wield a stout pickaxe handle.
Civil wars can sometimes be a necessary for human progress, but a civil war in the UK to determine which brand of capitalism (American or European) will continue to oppress us when the fighting stops would be utterly ludicrous.
If it does get to a stage where everything is about to kick off, we should all argue instead for a punch up between Boris and the shadow chancellor McDonnell, but not on Queensberry rules - McDonnell should be able to wield a stout pickaxe handle.
ska invita
back on the other side
Recently there's been a lot of discussion and writing asking 'Is whats happening today fascism?', with a variety of responses coming out from that. That includes saying that this is a still relatively early stage of neo-fascism, suggesting the form it might ultimately take today would be somewhat different to that of the 30s.
Same with colonialism. Its no longer necessary to send in troops to have a degree of colony-like power over another state, particularly through the use of financial means. Is it colonialism as it was in the 1800s? No, but there is good reason to call it a form of neo-colonialism.
And so with civil war. Is there a chance of a replay of an armed insurrection a la Cromwell? Id say clearly not (or massively unlikely). But that's not to say a civil war analogy is totally useless. We already have a cultural civil war happening and there's good reason to predict that will get more entrenched and volatile than it already is. What would a neo-civil war look like? I think it could be more of a guerrilla/terrorist warfare model, on the back of the cultural stuff.
Just sticking neo in front of something isn't that helpful in being precise, but i think its right that new forms can arise of older concepts, and making that earlier connection isn't totally redundant.
Same with colonialism. Its no longer necessary to send in troops to have a degree of colony-like power over another state, particularly through the use of financial means. Is it colonialism as it was in the 1800s? No, but there is good reason to call it a form of neo-colonialism.
And so with civil war. Is there a chance of a replay of an armed insurrection a la Cromwell? Id say clearly not (or massively unlikely). But that's not to say a civil war analogy is totally useless. We already have a cultural civil war happening and there's good reason to predict that will get more entrenched and volatile than it already is. What would a neo-civil war look like? I think it could be more of a guerrilla/terrorist warfare model, on the back of the cultural stuff.
Just sticking neo in front of something isn't that helpful in being precise, but i think its right that new forms can arise of older concepts, and making that earlier connection isn't totally redundant.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
likesfish - could you perhaps not discuss the location of rifles and ammunition on the internet - or is your need for attention and craving for credibility such that you're prepared to nominate yourself for Fuckwit of the Decade?
Take it down.
editor FridgeMagnet
Proper Tidy
Arsed
Everyone get down Kent, change is a coming
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Cromwell did not launch an armed insurrection
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Prescient thread?
"Nobody understands it can happen again"
How many people does it take for it to be called a civil war? I could see a situation arising where a few weeks of poorly armed skirmishes occur between a few thousand Brexit/ EU Ultras, with a handful of deaths. Its unlikely, but there are plausible routes to that scenario. I don't think there's enough hatred or motivation for anything much more fully blown. But we'd probably call that a civil war.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
i.e. both
likesfish
You can't park here sir
Pretty sure somewhere in Kent is vague enough it's not like I told them nuclear weapons are stored at faslane or anything important.
HoratioCuthbert
Deep seated inconsequence
Is it just me or do LBC fans have the most over sensitive incredulity triggers in the world. You could tweet the biggest non-sequity sequitur going and as long as it involves something a leave voter said they’d all be just jizzing incredulity all over our faces in unison it’s a bit much like.
not-bono-ever
meh
LBC is not worth listening to
WouldBe
Dislicksick
World of Warcraft it is then.
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