2014 EU/Local Election Thread - Predictions and Results

[redsquirrel]

So with less than 24 hours to go it's about time we had thread for the elections.

This is a list of the boroughs that are up for election in the locals this year

Anyone want to make any predictions, last year I grossly underestimated UKIPs success predicting that they'd get around 50 councillors, when in fact they took 139.

Most of the talk has been about whether UKIP can win the EU elections but considering that they were only 2% behind the Tories in terms of vote share in 2013 (23% to 25%), it's not impossible that they could push the Tories into third place in the locals this year.

Anyway this year I'm going to predict
- that UKIP, just, win the popular vote in the EU elections, Labour second, Con third and I think the LD's will just hold out the Greens for fourth place
- Labour will take the largest share of the vote in the locals, still can't make my mind up about UKIP vs Con.

Anyone else? The39thStep you made a pretty good guess of UKIPs results last time around, are they going to beat the Cons this time?

 

[shagnasty]

The council elections i choose three candidates ,not to sure on the euros can someone please walk me through it

 

[redsquirrel]

Walk you through what? How the system works? Who you should vote for? You're going to have to supply a bit more info.

 

[mk12]

When are the euro results announced?

 

[JTG]

The council elections i choose three candidates ,not to sure on the euros can someone please walk me through it

You get one Euro vote for a party list

 

[JTG]

When are the euro results announced?

Sunday

 

[redsquirrel]

When are the euro results announced?

According to wikipedia "most" of results will be announced on Sunday.

 

[JTG]

According to wikipedia "most" of results will be announced on Sunday.

Probably something like French votes from the Pacific still yet to be counted at that point

 

[William of Walworth]

I'm assuming that all the local results will be out by Saturday at the latest --true?

 

[RedDragon]

I wasn't issued a voting card

It's too early to go hunting for my passport and a utility bill

 

[JTG]

I wasn't issued a voting card

It's too early to go hunting for my passport and a utility bill

Obvious question: sure you're registered?

 

[JTG]

I'm assuming that all the local results will be out by Saturday at the latest --true?

Don't see why not. Them that don't count Thursday night will start counting Friday morning

 

[RedDragon]

Obvious question: sure you're registered?

Yeah, there's an aggressive sign-up campaign here, a formidable official will hammer on your door until the registration form is returned.

 

[goldenecitrone]

I predict that some overexcited dumbo will start a thread about the EU results 3 days too early.

 

[butchersapron]

Yes. No predictions allowed until Saturday night. Apparently.

I suppose dumbo is better than racist as well eh gc? Or do you just throw that accusation around with such abandon that you forget just who you've aimed it at?

 

[stowpirate]

Did Cameron vote for his nemisis?

 

[frogwoman]

hopefully the "don't vote" party will get the most votes.

facebook annoyed me this morning trying to encourage me to vote

 

[Sue]

I wasn't issued a voting card

It's too early to go hunting for my passport and a utility bill

Unless things have changed recently, you don't need any id. Just your name and address.

 

[skyscraper101]

Can't vote, won't vote. But in the words of the great Oi Polloi, Fuck Everybody Who Voted Tory.

*and ukip, bnp, libdem

 

[brogdale]

Since my earliest days of campaigning for Labour in the late 1970's I'd been aware of the accepted potential meteorological impact upon electoral turnout and results; people often talked about Labour or tory weather. The old logic being that fair weather (remember GE day 1997!) helps to bring out the labour vote, (they were supposed to have little/no access to private transport), and wet weather dissuading the feckless 'lower orders', allowing the tories to crusie down to the polling station in their Rovers and get the vermin elected.

Seems that Plaid have taken the analysis of election day weather to a new level.....

...focus on heartland areas has been the same for Plaid who are heartened by the weather forecast for polling day which is dry in the north and wet in the south.

 

[Dogsauce]

The google doodle thing is the Euro elections today - might remind a few people to vote.

I wonder if there's any significance in the people less certain to vote being prodded into going out to vote? It might harm parties with more determined supporters, probably UKIP in this case.

 

[Dogsauce]

I'm off work tomorrow too, presumably I can spend all night watching Peter Snow's graphics, to the annoyance of the girlfriend who is working.

I think the high polling for UKIP in the Euros will have an interesting impact on the local results, suspect a lot will vote for the party in both local and Euros if they have the option, will throw a cat amongst the pigeons a bit. Really hoping for a tory bloodbath, preferably some of the more cuntish councils like Hammersmith & Fulham. Probably going to be disappointed.

 

[quiquaquo]

Haven't voted that many times but is it normal practice in the UK for those at the desk to call out one's name aloud?

 

[Dogsauce]

Very wet here in the north today. That might help the scumbags.

 

[butchersapron]

Very wet here in the north today. That might help the scumbags.

Could you narrow that down?

 

[joustmaster]

I wonder how many times I can vote today..

I could clearly see the list of names and addresses of people who haven't voted, when I went in.

 

[Dogsauce]

Could you narrow that down?

Tories - traditionally do better when it's raining because their more motivated supporters will brave it (or drive there). I know years ago the tories used to bus people in from retirement homes to boost there vote, something other parties didn't always have the resources to provide. I doubt this is the case any more, TBH.

This was the Yorkshire regional split on a national yougov poll for a while ago, with strong caution due to sample size:

Con 9%, Labour 32%, LibDem 12%, UKIP 29%, Green 16%, BNP1%

Seems unlikely, but tories behind lib dems would be very funny.

 

[prunus]

Unless things have changed recently, you don't need any id. Just your name and address.

Absolutely; no ID needed, just rock up and say "I'm Brian, from the Big House*" and they'll give you a voting slip.

Vote early and vote often. Unless you're voting for the Tories, libdems or ukip, in which case fuck off.

* Adjust for your individual circumstances.

 

[brogdale]

The google doodle thing is the Euro elections today - might remind a few people to vote.

I wonder if there's any significance in the people less certain to vote being prodded into going out to vote? It might harm parties with more determined supporters, probably UKIP in this case.

"X" in the bottom box.

 

[butchersapron]

Euros:

UKIP: 29%
Labour: 29%
Tory 22%
Greens:7%
Lib-dem: 8%

Locals:

Tories lose 170
Lib-dems lose 320
Labour gain 470.
Ukip pick up 40-50.
Greens/Independents squeezed