Will you continue using a face mask after 19 July?

[elbows]

And just to be very clear about influenza death levels, it would be quite wrong to claim that 20,000 is the number that die every year, the average is not thought to be at that level.

But the idea it kills less than a thousand is something I find quite offensive based on all the numbers I've ever come across.

Another interesting area is how the rate has changed over time. I believe it is well possible to see a number of things in UK flu data this century, including the effects of expanding vaccination programmes.

The sort of number the following study came out with years ago involve the sort of ranges I tend to consider at least somewhat safe, a reasonable way to think about flu deaths.

https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/track/pdf/10.1186/s12889-016-3128-4.pdf

 

[existentialist]

Iam sure they will be pleased to hear that.

Well, they're not going to want mask-refusing cunts on their premises, if they can help it, so I imagine he'll be doing them a favour. But don't tell him, or he'll do it to spite them - he seems like that kind of person

(it's OK, he's almost certainly got me on ignore, so our strategy is safe)

 

[Chilli.s]

I have a feeling that the wont wear a mask group is going to directly become the wont isolate crowd

 

[Raheem]

There might be a bit of “mask only” businesses for a short time but I doubt it will last for any length of time. I for example won’t support a business that insists I wear a mask after 19th.

Come to think about it, I don't believe the Urban75 mask policy for after 19th is finalised yet...

 

[Badgers]

offensive

Sorry to OFFEND you

I am an amateur but get my information from scientific sources.

 

[Badgers]

There might be a bit of “mask only” businesses for a short time but I doubt it will last for any length of time. I for example won’t support a business that insists I wear a mask after 19th.

Dental businesses and the like?

Jog on you soft cunt

 

[Orang Utan]

those poor nail salons

 

[two sheds]

Dental businesses and the like?

Jog on you soft cunt

Mind you dental business will have problems if they demand patients wear masks.

 

[elbows]

Sorry to OFFEND you

I am an amateur but get my information from scientific sources.

So am I.

I dont think its that hard to understand why I might find a figure of less than a thousand deaths a year from flu to be offensive. If you believed it was much higher than that and then someone tried to tell you it was that low, would you be happy about it?

 

[Badgers]

So am I.

I dont think its that hard to understand why I might find a figure of less than a thousand deaths a year from flu to be offensive. If you believed it was much higher than that and then someone tried to tell you it was that low, would you be happy about it?

Are you talking about influenza and pneumonia combined?

 

[scalyboy]

.

 

[glitch hiker]

There might be a bit of “mask only” businesses for a short time but I doubt it will last for any length of time. I for example won’t support a business that insists I wear a mask after 19th.

Would you go to a halloween costume shop?

 

[Raheem]

Would you got to a halloween costume shop?

Or an s&m dungeon?

 

[scalyboy]

I thought the exhalation valves rather negated 50% of the purpose of wearing a mask?

Some time last year I bought a super hi-power dubwise FFP2 F95 mask, I looked like Darth Vader crossed with Hannibal Lecter, v impressive bit of kit and I felt safer on the Tube BUT I soon noticed that whenever I exhaled, could see little droplets flying out

Haven’t used it since - it may well be protecting me but it seemed like a damn good virus spreader

 

[Saul Goodman]

So am I.

I dont think its that hard to understand why I might find a figure of less than a thousand deaths a year from flu to be offensive. If you believed it was much higher than that and then someone tried to tell you it was that low, would you be happy about it?

I did a lot of reading at the start of the pandemic, and despite deaths being in the thousands in recent years, the figures I found suggested deaths from flu averaged around 600 a year.

 

[Saul Goodman]

About seasonal influenza


Seasonal influenza is a common, highly contagious infectious disease that can cause severe illness and life-threatening complications in many people. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) estimates that 15,000 – 70,000 people in Europe die from influenza-related complications each year, and encourages annual vaccination as the most effective way to prevent influenza. In the UK, the Oxford Vaccines Group estimates that an average of 600 people a year die from complications of flu, but in some years this can rise to over 10,000 people.

Global Newsroom | CSL

www.seqirus.com

In the UK an average of 600 people a year die from complications of seasonal flu. However in 2013-14, it is estimated that about 11,000 people died from flu-related causes.

Influenza (flu)

vk.ovg.ox.ac.uk

 

[elbows]

Are you talking about influenza and pneumonia combined?

Quite a lot of influenza deaths are caused by pneumonia. Quite a lot of pneumonia is caused by influenza, but there are plenty of other causes too.

A lack of mass testing for influenza means that there is much failure to record the specifics of every death on this spectrum. Even the stuffiest authorities acknowledge this. Hence analysis such as that I posted earlier which goes on about the limits of formally measured influenza fatalities and the need to ascertain these levels by other means.

Due to this pandemic we also have another means of thinking about influenza deaths in recent times. We can look at all the influenza-related deaths that did not happen this past winter. We can look at all the non-Covid pneumonia deaths that didnt happen, etc.

Influenza is responsible for thousands of deaths every normal year. It is directly responsible, in that if those people had not caught influenza, they would not have died at that time.

 

[elbows]

And some of that is some of the reason why I want mass diagnostics testing capabilities that have suddenly found favour in this pandemic to become a more standard part of our approach to other respiratory diseases in future. And I want hospital and care home infection control improvements to be done all the time. We can measure influenza deaths better and more importantly reduce them if we put more effort into such things.

 

[8ball]

Influenza is responsible for thousands of deaths every normal year. It is directly responsible, in that if those people had not caught influenza, they would not have died at that time.

Some things have multiple causes.
But yeah, our way of recording things is not exactly set up for allowing easy comparisons of different causes.

 

[two sheds]

And how many people whose death is recorded on the death certificate by flu have actually been run down by buses two weeks later? Eh? Eh?

 

[Aladdin]

I did a lot of reading at the start of the pandemic, and despite deaths being in the thousands in recent years, the figures I found suggested deaths from flu averaged around 600 a year.

Thing is that people can die as a result of pneumonia from the flu and the death isn't necessarily documented as flu.

 

[8ball]

Thing is that people can die as a result of pneumonia from the flu and the death isn't necessarily documented as flu.

Gets even worse when you move a bit away from direct or even second or third order causes.
Working out contributory factors from blunt instruments like coroners' reports must be near impossible.

 

[elbows]

Certainly there are a large number of things which also rely on people getting old and developing other health conditions in order that the outcome is death.

It wasnt that uncommon to hear pneumonia referred to as 'old mans friend' in the past either.

But I dont think I am going too far out on a limb when I say that if someone would not have died at that time were it not for catching influenza, that should be included in the sorts of numbers people refer to when they are talking about how many deaths we normally have from flu.

As I keep saying, even the authorities are well aware that death certificate reporting for things like influenza is deeply inadequate, and thats part of the reason we have fairly elaborate excess winter mortality surveillance systems.

Some of this stuff is a symptom of a disgraceful lack of inquisitiveness about precise causes of death from various respiratory diseases. Test, test, test is a lesson from this pandemic that should be applied in many other areas. Autorities here have traditionally preferred to rely on small systems of surveillance in order to get an overall impression of waves of influenza etc, rather than showing interest in formally identifying cases. That has implications not just for data but for how well peoples medical needs are treated. And sometimes it becomes far too much like the number games we've seen authorities most focussed on in this pandemic, about managing the levels of people seeking hospital treatment, instead of preventing as many cases as possible and saving as many lives as possible. There will always be a balance somewhere involving how much care people take to save those lives vs the expense and effort and other negative implications for peoples lives. The balance has not been pleasant int he past, and we could do much better. Masks and the new normal for at least winter behaviour does very much come into this picture.

 

[glitch hiker]

Or an s&m dungeon?

or armed robbery

 

[elbows]

By the way once the acute phase of the pandemic is over, I do intend to spend more time on that sort of thing. I would like to find some countries that normally have enough flu death to show up clearly in their figures via things like excess winter mortality. And I hope to find some who managed to get through at least one winter in this pandemic without much Covid and with much lower levels of other normal seasonal diseases too. Because that should tell a story in their excess winter mortality numbers for that season compared to pre-pandemic ones. I dont know if there will be any ideal candidates. And if there are, some of the numbers might still sound a little on the small size given that a country like the UK tends to be on the high side of deaths for all this sort of thing normally. So analysis of some countries may produce numbers that all seem rather low and inconsequential compared to our own normal state of affairs.

We are shit at this stuff. Do better in future and we could save many lives over many years. Masks are an obvious one but there are many things within specific sectors that can make big differences that wont necessarily eve be very visible to the general public. Hospital and care home infection control is something I've gone on about endlessly in this pandemic, and its role has not been small, not in this pandemic and not previously with things like flu. Add testing and various mitigation measures to those settings and it can make a measurable difference, of that Im sure.

 

[glitch hiker]

Global Newsroom | CSL

www.seqirus.com

Influenza (flu)

vk.ovg.ox.ac.uk

At the start of the pandemic Hitchens was saying that period was at least twice that, as cover for his 'it's no worse than the flu' bullshit

 

[elbows]

And should people invite me to believe that it would be weird and extreme to think patients deserve to be tested to see if they actually have flu, then that says plenty about why I think we've been shit in the past. Its not bloody good enough, and there is now a testing capacity foundation in place that can be used to create a new normal if the will is there. We could have created a new normal for masks to a certain extent too, but some seek to erode that as much as possible, as quickly as possible. There are multiple reasons. There is some cultural resistance, espcially from some sections of the establishment.

 

[paul russell999]

I bought some FFP2 masks in boots yesterday. 5 for £9.99, are there any cheaper ones around.

I got mine from MediSave. They are a reputable company (I think), that I've ordered from quite a few times, that also happens to be a couple of miles from me, but they only sell online.

FFP2 Masks x 20

Recommended Medical masks for primary / outpatient / community and social care settings. Omnitex premium unvalved FFP2 face masks. EN149 Compliant and CE Certified. Individually Wrapped. Each Box Contains 20 masks + 5 Mask extenders. Meets FFP2 European Regulation Standards EN149:2001+A1:2009...

www.medisave.co.uk

by the time you've paid postage, it's about £14 for 20 for these FFP2 masks. Got mine today. Seem fine.

 

[Aladdin]

This is going to sound really awful but is there a chance that some government officials thought "let's allow covid to spread and if it kills off the weakest in society then it saves us the cost of their health care etc for the next 20 years....pandemic paid for.."

 

[elbows]

Such concepts exist and they are often part of the mix in certain minds, but there are lots of other factors and ways to dress that stuff up or justify it. And it does find additional territory to lurk whenever their are dark corners of unaddressed attitudes and levels of care to be found. Many countries had populations shocked by what happened with care homes in this pandemic. But the conversations about that struggled to go beyond a certain point because they end up leading straight to a more longstanding and really awkward conversation about care homes and the elderly in general. Stuff people are not exactly in full denial about but find ways not to think about too much in case that leads to painful truths and potential solutions that may have implications they dont want to face.

Really crude calculations like the one you described are often more a part of some hideous justification or logic that falls short, rather than coming to full fruition. Because what happens is the virus only kills a fraction of the weak, and sends lots more people into that category without going so far as to kill them.

The heaviest burden is in the poor too, and that is not lost on authorities. Its inevitably going to be part of some political and economic calculations, but not all.