Why the lib-dems are shit

[brogdale]

Looks ripe for an 'independent' type candidate to swan in and mop up?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/b57.stm

 

[Pickman's model]

Looks ripe for an 'independent' type candidate to swan in and mop up?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/b57.stm

any candidate who promised to mop up would almost certainly gain votes in eastleigh due to its problems with flooding.

 

[brogdale]

any candidate who promised to mop up would almost certainly gain votes in eastleigh due to its problems with flooding.

How fast was that car driving? And who was driving....?

 

[Kaka Tim]

Will there be a bi-election?

My understanding is that he only has to resign his seat if he gets more than a year in prison.

If there is it will be an interesting one as its a tory target seat - labour are third, but if about half the lib dem vote switch to labour, labour will win.

 

[King Biscuit Time]

Will there be a bi-election?

My understanding is that he only has to resign his seat if he gets more than a year in prison.

If there is it will be an interesting one as its a tory target seat - labour are third, but if about half the lib dem vote switch to labour, labour will win.

If there's a bi-election, I'd expect to see a large amount of swing, both ways.

 

[BigTom]

Will there be a bi-election?

My understanding is that he only has to resign his seat if he gets more than a year in prison.

If there is it will be an interesting one as its a tory target seat - labour are third, but if about half the lib dem vote switch to labour, labour will win.

Closer to 2/3rds

Chris Huhne Liberal Democrat 24,966 46.5%
Maria Hutchings Conservative 21,102 39.3%
Leo Barraclough Labour......... 5,153 9.6%

Would need 16,000/25,000 votes or 30% of 46.5% to win, if the Tory vote stays the same.

Looks like an easy Tory win to me, especially if they get their vote out by making people worried about how many Lib Dem voters will switch to Labour. Of course many people will come out to vote against the Tories, but I think by-elections usually get lower turnouts than general elections so I'm not sure how much of a factor that would be.

 

[Wilf]

Looks ripe for an 'independent' type candidate to swan in and mop up?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/b57.stm

Ukip don't look to have much of a presence, but they might do something here - anti-(pro European) lib dem vote; Bufton-Tufton Tories doing an anti-Cameron thing...

 

[butchersapron]

Def by-election, now he's never going to be able to challenge for the party leadership he will be off to make big money even if he gets under a year inside. Labour unlikely to take the seat, higher end of their vote there was 14-15 000 in 97,that won't be enough unless there's a low turnout, and the overwhelming majority of people deserting the lib-dems go straight to labour or stay at home and tories sit on their hands too - on that last point there is a UKIP presence as well which could do some damage, esp as the demographics suggest a sizable older population. Not impossible, but big ask.

 

[BigTom]

Had forgotten about UKIP... they split the Tory vote, Lib Dems switch en masse to Labour, Labour squeeks in. Could happen I suppose, but if I was a betting man, I'd be betting Tory.

 

[co-op]

Easy tory win.

 

[butchersapron]

So, the lib-dem big five:

David Laws - Thief (Oxbridge)
Chris Huhne - lying pervert (Oxbridge)
Vince Cable - murderer (Oxbridge)
Danny Alexander - Tax avoider (Oxbridge)
and the least of these
Clegg: Liar (Oxbridge)

 

[Wilf]

Ladbrokes have Libs as favourite to keep the seat
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2013/feb/04/osborne-speech-banks-live-blog

Doubt it myself but there could be some complex calculations in play here (for the voters). Most LDs in that particular seat won't dream of voting Labour - and they may stick with the Libs if they field a 'popular local candidate'. Turnout and UKIP effect will also make it unpredictable. Probably a close race, I'm just not sure between who.

 

[butchersapron]

Resigning

 

[BigTom]

So, the lib-dem big five:

David Laws - Thief (Oxbridge)
Chris Huhne - lying pervert (Oxbridge)
Vince Cable - murderer (Oxbridge)
Danny Alexander - Tax avoider (Oxbridge)
and the least of these
Clegg: Liar (Oxbridge)

Cable murderer?

Also, Clegg is an Arsonist http://ianbone.wordpress.com/2011/08/12/nick-clegg-is-convicted-arsonist/

 

[Wilf]

Amid all these psephological calculations, I'd just like to emit a hearty ha ha!

 

[butchersapron]

It is also not the first time questions have been raised about Dr Cable's close relationship with Shell. He joined the company in 1990 as an enthusiastic number-cruncher, becoming the company's chief economist from 1995 to 1997. During this period the company allegedly paid and supported the Nigerian military to commit international crimes. In 1995 the writer Ken Saro-Wiwa and eight other leaders of the southern Nigerian Ogoni ethnic group were executed by the Sani Abacha military government. This was after a waves of state-sponsored violence in the south of the country. In 2011, relatives of the assassinated Ogoni 9, as they became known, began legal proceedings against Shell, accusing the company of collaborating in the murders. Shell agreed an out-of-court settlement in which they paid the victims' families $15.5m, rather then face a New York federal court.

 

[butchersapron]

This huhne pervert actually wants credit for being caught lying to everyone:

But having taken responsibility for something that happened 10 years ago the only proper course of action for me is to resign my Eastleigh seat..

 

[Wilf]

From the grauniad link above:

Granting Huhne, whose father was also in court today, unconditional bail until a sentence date to be fixed, Mr Justice Sweeney told him: "I will deal with your sentence on a date to be notified.​

"It is essential that you attend, obviously, on that date.​

"As Mr Kelsey-Fry [Huhne's barrister] has foreshadowed, you should have no illusions whatsoever as to the sort of sentence that you are likely to receive."​

​

​

Farage has already said he's standing.​

edit: my fuckin eyesight - said he probably won't run.​

 

[Pickman's model]

From the grauniad link above:

Granting Huhne, whose father was also in court today, unconditional bail until a sentence date to be fixed, Mr Justice Sweeney told him: "I will deal with your sentence on a date to be notified.​

"It is essential that you attend, obviously, on that date.​

"As Mr Kelsey-Fry [Huhne's barrister] has foreshadowed, you should have no illusions whatsoever as to the sort of sentence that you are likely to receive."​

​

​

Farage has already said he's standing.​

in an hour or two, after having a few drinks, he'll have sat back down again

 

[butchersapron]

From the grauniad link above:

Granting Huhne, whose father was also in court today, unconditional bail until a sentence date to be fixed, Mr Justice Sweeney told him: "I will deal with your sentence on a date to be notified.​

"It is essential that you attend, obviously, on that date.​

"As Mr Kelsey-Fry [Huhne's barrister] has foreshadowed, you should have no illusions whatsoever as to the sort of sentence that you are likely to receive."​

​

​

Farage has already said he's standing.​

​

He's said he'll think about it. Not sure that's the right place for him.

edit: ah, you spotted that now.

 

[Kaka Tim]

given the nature of the constituency (as outlined above) it looks like a close call between tory and lib dems. Lib dems will def lose a chunk of their vote to labour, but - given that labour winning looks a long shot - it wont be as much as in other by-elections. Meanwhile the tories will def lose a chunk of their vote to UKIP - which will be a 'safe' protest vote for disgruntled tories, because - again labour are unlikely to win.
Could get very poisonous between the the yellow and blue tories.
This might be fun.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Talk of Boris being the tory candidate. Not convinced as its not a safe seat and it would be a masive political risk. Farrage looks like hes got cold feet as well.

 

[butchersapron]

I don't expect either to stand, UKIP will be on the lookout for a high-profile well know face though.

Just saw this daftness:

Jessica Bridge of Ladbrokes said: "The last three elections have been very close but the odds suggest the Lib Dems will take pole position once again."

er...you set the odds Jessica.

 

[butchersapron]

The Guardian has piece outlining years of lies from Huhne which i think they should use as a separate article headlined Four and a Half Years of Lies, Stupidity and Cowardice.

 

[DotCommunist]

so is huhnes wife also looking at some time in holloway?

 

[Louis MacNeice]

Surely if they have any kind of presence UKIP will go for it all guns blazing. After all they don't need to win to do well; this is not true for any of the others (LD, Lab, Con).

Cheers - Louis MacNeice

p.s. LD's will do badly; they are unpopular nationally and the local party picked, promoted and stood by self serving liar and criminal Huhne.

 

[butchersapron]

so is huhnes wife also looking at some time in holloway?

Depends if they find her guilty or not.

 

[Wilf]

Irony is, if Labour decide they can't win, they'd probably want ukip to get it to cause the maximum disruption for Cameron. There's nothing positive for Labour in either a Tory or Lib win. Following the same logic, they might just see a silver lining if Boris got it for the Tories - for the same reason. I agree though, it's a bit early for him to show his hand.

 

[brogdale]

Good grief, this is absolutely tragic.
Apparently, in an attempt to get the case against him dropped, Huhne's team submitted these very personal and private texts between Huhne and his son Peter and therefore opened them up to the public domaine when reporting restrictions were lifted. Huhne must have been aware that media reporting would ensue when he offered them up as evidence. What a monster.

As well as feeling so sorry for Huhne's family, I can't help but feel some admiration for Huhne's son and the very eloquent integrity he showed when dealing with his lying father.

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

Libdems are extremly strong and well organised in Eastleigh (huge majority on the council) and the surrounding areas they will put up a good fight imo - and UKIP could do quite well as well as they have a strong base in the wider south Hants/Solent area - however as we know they can be erratic.

I think there is a chance if UKIP and Libdems do well the Libdems could just keep the seat - I think any other result at least partly depends on having really strong hard working Tory and Labour candidates, not that Labour will win but they could take enough Libdem votes to help the Tories in.