People writing or editing todays nuclear story havent got a fucking clue what they are talking about when it comes to a particular major claim that they seem to have entirely pulled out of their own arses....
It is hoped a new plant could quadruple supplies by 2050 but industry warned progress can be slow.
www.bbc.co.uk
The article has already changed quite a bit while I've been fact checking it, but the detail I'm pointing at has arguably got even worse, more absurd, less plausible during that time, while maintaining its central error.
First it said:
A new large-scale nuclear plant would quadruple supplies by 2050, which the government claims would lower bills and improve energy security.
Right now it instead says:
The government has announced plans to build a new large-scale nuclear plant, despite concerns about delays to existing projects.
Ministers say the project would be the biggest expansion of the sector in 70 years, reducing reliance on overseas supply.
The new plant would quadruple energy supplies by 2050, they say.
What the absolute suffering fuck is this quadruple supplies shit? Its total nonsense, especially in the context of a single plant! Even if you dont know a single figure relating to nuclear or any other form of generation capacity, how could you possibly think that a single plant could quadruple energy supplies?
It doesnt even make sense that ministers would describe a single new project as being the "biggest expansion of the sector in 70 years" given that we already have one of these plants under construction, and another one on the table, so adding one more does not represent some new scale of expansion at all.
Here are a few numbers which illustrate the actual reality, and quite how absurd this BBC bullshit about quadrupling is:
The entire government ambition for nuclear is 'up to 24GW of nuclear capacity by 2050'. Todays document says that this "would cover up to a quarter of the country’s projected electricity demand"
In the same document, the claim is that the nuclear share of electricity generation has falled from a peak of 27% to 15% currently.
The same document states that the current nuclear fleet (that was built long ago, ie not including the under construction Hinkley Point C) has a generation capacity of 6GW. Thats compared to the peak of installed nuclear capacity which was about 12.7 GW in 1995, since lots of reactors reached end of life and shutdown since then.
A new large plant equivalent to the under construction Hinkley Point C, featuring 2 reactors, would give an output of about 3.2GW
If I look at some of those numbers and try to work out where the BBC article has gone wrong, the simplest explanation is that they have conflated what a single new plant can offer with the entire stated GW ambition for 2050! Because current nuclear capacity of 6GW multiplied by 4 is 24GW.
So if I wanted to make the claim properly, it would be that the entire nuclear ambition, including all the large and smaller reactor projects to be built over the next 25+ years, could quadruple the amount of nuclear electricity generation capacity in this country compared to current nuclear generation levels. But I'd have to point out that we are talking about nuclear output here, not our nations entire electricity supplies or the even vaguer 'energy supplies'. And that also there is a reason the governments own roadmap has the words 'up to' in front of 24GW, they want to keep a degree of flexibility in their ambitions because they dont actually know what the electricity needs of the country and market will be in 2050 or the exact proportion of large, small and non-nuclear projects that it will make sense to utilise to deliver on those needs.