I don’t understand the problem. The urban votes put Sunak most likely, then Mordaunt, then Johnson. I don’t think that’s a bad reflection of the current likelihood. Johnson remains an outside bet because so much of the party really, really don’t want him back.
Who will be the next prime minister (October 2022 edition)
- Thread starter SpookyFrank
- Start date
planetgeli
There's no future in England's dreaming
I must admit I've given up following the boring technicalities - what is the process this time? I thought it was just going to be MPs electing the leader?
Do tell.
Do tell.
planetgeli
There's no future in England's dreaming
FFY
Yes, but it’s the parliamentary party that get to decide who the membership are allowed to vote on. I remain convinced that Johnson isn’t going to get near 100 MPs to nominate him. He only got 211 votes when he was already the incumbent and the MPs feared what would come next, and that was before he went through the scandal that finished him off.
planetgeli
There's no future in England's dreaming
I think you've answered my previous post there too. Thanks.
The numbers they're giving out atm certainly puts him somewhere in the 'near' category I'd have thought.
The latest I’ve seen puts him on 57.
New PM Rishi Sunak to meet King Charles and address nation on Tuesday morning
Rishi Sunak will meet King Charles and address the nation from Downing Street as he becomes prime minister tomorrow morning.
www.telegraph.co.uk
planetgeli
There's no future in England's dreaming
The latest I’ve seen puts him on 57.
New PM Rishi Sunak to meet King Charles and address nation on Tuesday morning
Rishi Sunak will meet King Charles and address the nation from Downing Street as he becomes prime minister tomorrow morning.
With 153 undeclared.
planetgeli
There's no future in England's dreaming
_Russ_
Never not Knowingly Misunderstood
Im pretty sure thats the only reason Truss got in the last time (Ok I only know one Tory party member but from how he talks most all of his 'mates' are of the same mould)
The numbers the Johnson camp are giving out. If there were 100 of the cretins, there'd be more tweets of support etc. In fact I'd expect in constituencies where inexplicably Johnson is still popular, Tory MPs would come out to support him even if they had no intention of doing so. Shy Johnsonites I don't see as a thing.
bimble
floofy
I like the idea that a failure to get to 100 will humiliate Johnson but don’t think he’s capable of that feeling.
He’ll just swan off pretending he chose not to compete, having trolled everyone, to make a few extra million quid having proved he’s still a very important person who can dominate the news for days without doing a single thing apart from getting on and off an airoplane.
He’ll just swan off pretending he chose not to compete, having trolled everyone, to make a few extra million quid having proved he’s still a very important person who can dominate the news for days without doing a single thing apart from getting on and off an airoplane.
So a third of those would have to go to him. That’s a much bigger proportion than he has of the existing declarations. However, my guess is that the undeclareds are more likely to play it “safe”, which means anyone but Johnson. I don’t think he’s going to get within 10 of the necessary 100. Probably not within 20. And realising that, I suspect he won’t even declare himself in the end.
Rob Ray
Weight is meaningless
45 more and Sunak has an outright majority of Tory MPs, Johnson needing 43 to reach the threshold. If the latter actually has 100 (which is vaguely plausible, but the longer the wait the worse it looks) he'll need to get a lot of them to declare sharpish I'd reckon, otherwise the weekend's momentum could push Sunak over the line.
HoratioCuthbert
Deep seated inconsequence
It's a reflection of the number of people that voted in the few hours after the poll went up, mainly. Voted too soon
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Sunak looks nearly done and dusted. Johnson is clearly nowhere near 100. Even that Guido live count has 16 anonymous supporters among his 75. Sunak only has five anonymous among his 140-odd. These are tory MPs. A private endorsement counts for jack shit.
Rob Ray
Weight is meaningless
I figure Johnson potentially has 100 (Wikipedia has him at 63), but the number he's got right now are votes which aren't to one degree or another contingent on things appearing to be going his way. If that's all he's got he's fucked. If he can get a good flurry in over the course of today and heads into the 80s with a sense of inevitability setting in it could tip the remainder.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
As for the high vote for Mordaunt on here, I can only speak for myself. I voted early, thinking that she would be the one gaining the momentum Sunak is currently gaining as the 'grown-up' candidate. Clearly I was wrong. obvs I detest all of them. it's not any kind of endorsement to put a friendly bet on who you think will win.
It's hard to call anything right now, but it looks to me like Johnson threatening to stand has played right into Sunak's hands.
It's hard to call anything right now, but it looks to me like Johnson threatening to stand has played right into Sunak's hands.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
tbh callers to talk radio shows aren't indicative of much other than the kind of person who calls talk radio shows to have a vent. Make the average tory party member look sane.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Yep that's what I think. Unless he's sure he has 100, he won't declare.
And this 100 thing appears to have been specifically designed to keep Johnson out. Looks like they judged it well - 50 not enough, 100 just right.
story
Changing the facts
I worry that just as I might agree with what someone (a caller or the presenter or the guest) says, so too will other listeners.
I watched a clip of pop-fox posted by someone else. Obviously they show the most alarming / entertaining examples but it still worries me that so many people feel that it’s perfectly acceptable to say such horrible stupid things out loud, on tape, to be broadcast. It normalises the shit and emboldens others. And the confirmation bias deepens and strengthens those opinions too, in those watching.
Pointing and laughing and assuming/hoping that most others are also doing so, it’s not enough. It’s complacency.
platinumsage
HaveMyPassword123
I thought this was funny:
Rob Ray
Weight is meaningless
Relatively raised levels of isolation and reliance on social media tends to cushion us against the degree of explicit racism in Britain, and there's a frustrating lack of easily available recent research on the subject of people self-regarding as such (lots showcasing the effects of racism in health, public services etc but not on social sentiment). But I can't imagine it's much better than in 2014 when 30% odd of people described themselves as prejudiced.
Tbh I'd actually expect worse given the last few Brexit, "migrant crisis," "war on woke" and "blame the pandemic on the foreigners" years – plus people who are explicitly prejudiced have, similarly to anti-racists, been increasingly corralled into communities which are self-reinforcing, so the number of genuinely extreme types, and those who think it's fine to say the quiet part out loud in public, will have also risen. Certainly the number of attacks on minorities has skyrocketed.
(2017 itself was a considerable increase on 2014 (pdf) when 42,930 race hate crimes were reported).
In a sense the caller is correct. Media doesn't really reflect the view of the general public in the round, as such, because for a large part of the public that barrier against overt racism isn't really there. The sensibilities of the media probably do address the majority view, but a much slimmer one that is assumed.
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Puddy_Tat
santa paws, do you ever come to the ghetto?
indeed. opening post / poll was a 'who do you think will win' and without a 'bollocks to the lot of them' option. the idea that any vote on this thread is any form of support is kinda daft...
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