Who will be the next prime minister (October 2022 edition)

[Ax^]

but how can this be ?
View attachment 348548
(he hasn't deleted it yet the tweet from yesterday early afternoon)

 

[strung out]

I'm not sure why anyone would think that BJ wouldn't get 100+

Hey, you were right, BJ easily got to 100+!

 

[Ax^]

 

[Hash4Cash]

Well BJ has withdrawn so he doesn't loose.

Where is the face palm emoji.

 

[wow]

All over bar the shouting.

 

[cupid_stunt]

The Scum missed a trick with their front page, much better would have been, 'BOJO IT'S A NONO'.

 

[bimble]

I'll see your pot of soup and raise you two Fray Bentos, tinned seak pies, that not only will he get 100 backers, he'll be the next PM.

Would anybody like my winnings?

I feel that I should step aside, for the sake of unity and the good of the nation.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I'm not sure why anyone would think that BJ wouldn't get 100+

You've shown before that maths is not one of your strengths, mate.

 

[platinumsage]

Another gem from the Marsh family

 

[kabbes]

That’s excellent

 

[cupid_stunt]

Three questions remain, will Mordaunt reach the magic 100+, certainly a possibility if there's enough delusional anti-Sunak MPs that think they can stop him by backing Mordaunt, taking it to the membership, and that would somehow work out if she won.

Secondly, if Mordaunt gets to that point, but miles behind Sunak, would she insist on going to the membership, I doubt it as she would know she would struggle to control the party, so again possible, certainly more possible than Johnson ever getting to the magic 100+, which was clearly never going to happen.

Finally, if it did go to the membership, would they be daft enough to pick her, when she's not the most popular amongst the MPs, and with the Trussafuck fresh in their minds, very doubtful IMO.

I am fairly sure Sunak will be confirmed as PM at some point today.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Oh, and I bet Carrie is pissed off with him for cutting short their holiday.

 

[Ted Striker]

Boris winning the public vote having only 101ish of his party supporting him has good Tory chaos lol potential

Dear Tory Chaos Genie, I appreciate I'm all out of wishes here, but I would happily accept Mordaunt to play the 101ish vote role, to ensure the headbanger members do their thing.

 

[Ted Striker]

Oh, and I bet Carrie is pissed off with him for cutting short their holiday.

"But you promised I was going to be reunited with my wallpaper . I've already sent out invites to the party "

 

[kabbes]

No conclusion reached at all. Just remarking on the big vote for maudant here that is not reflected elsewhere. Is it urbanites just getting it wrong or was she perceived as being more acceptable? The least obnoxious candidate?

Looks like urbanite polling got the final two right after all, and urbanites were right that Johnson was the outside bet.

 

[killer b]

I'm not a betting man, but considering she's the only person left in other than sunak, has a reasonable chance of getting the 100 noms and a decent chance of winning if it goes to the members, 28/1 seems pretty good odds for Mordaunt this morning?

 

[kabbes]

I'm not a betting man, but considering she's the only person left in other than sunak, has a reasonable chance of getting the 100 noms and a decent chance of winning if it goes to the members, 28/1 seems pretty good odds for Mordaunt this morning?

Agreed. Even if there is only a 25% chance of getting the nominations and 25% chance of winning the run off, that still leaves it at 15/1.

She’s probably not going to win, but 28/1 is nevertheless good value, I think.

 

[ouirdeaux]

If she doesn't win, the odds are irrelevant.

 

[kabbes]

If she doesn't win, the odds are irrelevant.

Not if you’re a serial better, because a few of the long odds will pay off. So long as you’re getting good value, the few that pay off will make a profit over the many that don’t.

 

[Kaka Tim]

be surprised if she doesn't pull out today - probably waiting to see how much support she gets from mps in order to negotiate a plum job with sunak. Expect a lot of gushing from the media over "grown up" sunak and a tory recovery in the polls. Which will last until the cost of living shit properly hits the fan in the new year and the tory head bangers get back on their hobby horses.

 

[Pickman's model]

.

 

[killer b]

If she doesn't win, the odds are irrelevant.

no shit.

 

[Pickman's model]

Oh, and I bet Carrie is pissed off with him for cutting short their holiday.

good

 

[kebabking]

Depends how she frames her campaign - if she's going reasonable competence then she'll stay, imv, short of 100, but if she goes for the anyone-but-Sunak, Johnson tribute act, she may we'll get there - the problem she'll have is that she'll instantly piss off 200 of her MP's who'll spend the next 2 years making her life hell.

She's had a really poor campaign - she never framed where she was: is she Johnson but without the corruption and sexual incontinence, is she Sunak but without the act of Brutus, Truss without the catastrophically poor personal skills?

She's always been a bit of a mystery: she's not of the Eton set, she's not of the hedge fund managers, she's serious and, by all accounts, an above average departmental minister, good at the despatch box which always rallies the troops, no scandal, she looks serious and capable, and she has a reputation amongst the CS as being polite, capable, supportive, diligent and effective.

What's odd is that given all that, she polls so poorly amongst Tory MP's....

 

[bimble]

She’ll probably be Home Secretary or something won’t she, whoever she is. Feels like the ‘nobody really knows who she is’ candidate would have fared a lot better if we hadn’t just experienced Truss.

 

[bimble]

oh. who knows anymore. Could be true if johnson's supporters mostly switched overnight.

 

[ska invita]

- she never framed where she was

yeah she did, she's low tax = growth scum

 

[moochedit]

yeah she did, she's low tax = growth scum

She might think that but i doubt she would try it after truss's attempt and quick u turn.

Whoever wins will try the "sensible" austerity route

 

[ska invita]

She might think that but i doubt she would try it after truss's attempt and quick u turn.

Whoever wins will try the "sensible" austerity route

yes agree, but that was her platform

 

[kebabking]

yeah she did, she's low tax = growth scum

While also going well outside the then cabinet position and saying that benefits should get the full 10% inflation uplift?

It may have been pure politicking - Penny on manoeuvres - but I don't see much in her previous which suggests she was one of the IEA faithful.