frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
I don’t think you can really count on that, seems to me that's exactly what people thought the first time around
What stupid shit has Trump done today?
- Thread starter Yossarian
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elbows
Well-Known Member
Not sure, because he now has a track record of being too incompetent to deliver the promised carrots when in office, if they are policy carrots. But if they are carrots that involve loud rhetoric, chaos, well poisoning, ratings rather than carrying a policy through the legislative process, perhaps some could still be tempted to back him.
It will be hard for me to make predictions about his run to the nomination this time, because thats the stage of proceedings where I got it all wrong last time. I thought the republican party would have a mechanism to stop him becoming their candidate last time, and they didnt. Theres a bunch of reasons stuff is stacked against him to a greater extent this time, but I'm still a little hesitant to make a confident prediction. All the same I certainly dont rule out the possibility that this time he is just going through the motions, just standing in order to serve a particular narrative, very much including the 'civil and criminal trials against me are just political witchhunts' angle.
Ax^
Silly Rabbit
Hillary wanted him as the nomination because she thought she could beat him easily
aye but this is after he can only serve one term if elected .. had to see the republicans back a one term prez who failed at his own mid term
and now has a history of losing elections
Yuwipi Woman
Whack-A-Mole Queen
My dream scenario is that he doesn't get the GOP nomination and goes out and starts a third party. We all know he won't go away quietly in any case.
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Yuwipi Woman
Whack-A-Mole Queen
Ivanka Trump doesn't want to get involved.
"This time around, I am choosing to prioritize my young children and the private life we are creating as a family," Ivanka Trump told Fox News Digital. "I do not plan to be involved in politics."
Translation: "I'm still waiting for the feds to bust down my door with search warrants from the last time."
Cloo
Approved by toads
This seems a likely motivation to me - then he can claim it's all MSM-backed cheating to stop him making America Great Again.
It's also within the realms of possibility he really thinks he can win. And unfortunately also that he could win - the direction of voter support looks against him right now, but not a given it will remain so if he finds the killer angle to take them with him again
Hilary Clinton was the most unpopular politician in the country in 2016, and if Trump hadn't have won we'd be currently two years into the second term of Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio or (shudder) Ted Cruz. She was right that Trump was her best chance of winning. Would things have been much better under those other guys?Hillary wanted him as the nomination because she thought she could beat him easily
Karl Masks
Birds Angel Delight
That would prsisdent due santis, which I think would be worse. The Patel-braverman trajectory
gosub
~#
Nope it 2 consec terms Clevland Grover won 3
strung out
💩 🤣 🍆 💦 🧐 👻 🐝 🐈⬛
No it isn't, it's two terms total, regardless of whether they were consecutive or not.
It was changed with the 22nd amendment in 1951 after Franklin D Roosevelt served four successive terms.
bimble
floofy
thats actually quite fascinating: It's not just trump its ALL politicians, are exempt from any fact checking, cos everyone knows that "political speech" is mostly lies and false promises. Now he's announced it means he's a politician again so can say what he likes basically.
Yuwipi Woman
Whack-A-Mole Queen
It would probably split the Republican vote between DeSantis and Trump, leaving the Democratic candidate a clearer path. If you look at a lot of governor's races, they had a Libertarian candidate on the ballot. In those cases, the Libertarian candidate siphoned off between 3 and 5% of the GOP vote. That was enough to decide a tight race.
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Yuwipi Woman
Whack-A-Mole Queen
In the past, its staved off criminal prosecution. If I were him, that would definitely be a perk.
Cleveland only served two terms.
The two term limit was only a convention until the 1950s I think. Roosevelt served three full terms and won a fourth election before dying early in his fourth term.
Ax^
Silly Rabbit
45 minutes of rambling about how he would stay on course , why would you not want to run away
Karl Masks
Birds Angel Delight
Doesn't that assume Trump standing not as GOP candidate but as an independent. Would he do that if De Santis won the nomination?
Yuwipi Woman
Whack-A-Mole Queen
Yes, and yes. Have you seen any evidence that he'll just go away quietly? If he can't win himself, he'd be quite happy trashing the chances of DeSantis. It's what malignant narcissists do when they lose.
Karl Masks
Birds Angel Delight
I think I recognise them. Professional trolls, but the good kind. I could be wrong. There's no way they are genuine
Yossarian
⏭️
Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by 3 million but lost the Electoral College because of 80,000 votes spread out over Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin - did Bush or Rubio have a message that would have inspired the same turnout in Rust Belt states, including among former Democrats opposed to immigration and free trade deals?
MickiQ
In My Defence I was left Unsupervised
I don't know if he would run as an independent ,Whilst he's a massive narcissist he's also tighter than the proverbial duck's arse and he might not want to spend cash he could otherwise skim off. If he loses to DeSantis he won't stand up and say "OK let's all rally behind Ron". He'll undermine him and snipe bitterly at every chance he gets.
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elbows
Well-Known Member
They were comedians and that incident happened 6 years ago.
Men ejected for calling Trump boring are comedians
“Seriously, shouldn’t this be more fun,” one of the men said.
thehill.com
agricola
a genuine importer of owls
I don't think he would stand as a third party - his control over the GOP is based on the threat of that, and if they call him on it (and he loses the nomination) then one wonders whether he'd go to the expense of running an obviously doomed third-party run.
I mean, he could have much the same effect (and generate a lot more money) by not running, bitching from the sidelines / suggesting his voters shouldn't back whoever it is and continuing to fundraise to support "worthy candidates". If they then lose 2024 they will end up coming to him.
Possibly not, but they also didn't have the push factor that Trump has that motivates other people to vote against him. It's complicated, but I'd say the evidence overall points towards Trump being a drag on Republican electoral prospects - non-Trump republicans running for office tend to do better than Trump (or Trump endorsed candidates).
Yep. He doesn't give one single solitary shit for the Republican Party. He'd be a Democratic candidate if they'd have him. He cares about one thing. Trump.
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