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What stupid shit has Trump done today?

On Politico Trump Is Winning the Immigration Debate
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The swing here was enormous. A Trump defeat in November after running on an exaggerated version of immigration restriction would have sent Republicans scurrying back to the comfortable, corporate-friendly cliches about so-called comprehensive immigration reform. And if Hillary Clinton had won on a platform that doubled down on Obama’s executive amnesties, serious immigration enforcement would have lost its political legitimacy.

Trump probably wouldn't have won without running so directly into the teeth of the elite consensus. According to a study published by Public Religion Research Institute and the Atlantic of white working-class voters, it was anxiety about culture change and support for deporting undocumented immigrants that correlated with voting for Trump, not loss of economic or social standing. Likewise, a Democracy Fund Voter Study Group report found Hillary Clinton cratered among populist voters who had supported Barack Obama, with the issue of immigration looming large.
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Arguably Trump's main plank and something he has quite a lot of support on. Just look at the polling on the Muslim Ban above. That has broad cross party appeal. It may be shit for brains policy but there it is. ICE scooping up illegals all over the country is popular as well. Visceral issues do get voters out and it would be stupid to insist they don't or there are no problems associated with migration.

Demographic reality is parts of the US are becoming increasingly Latino and Anglo folk feel they are losing control. Americans who have never met a migrant often fixate on this even more. America is changing and conservatives are by definition people who don't like change. Running towards that inevitable future before it had actually happened probably was a Dem error. Descending the elevator and doubting the existence of a good Mexican was a tactical success but probably is a GOP error in the longer term.

Trump was a nostalgia candidate. A rosy view of the past returning sells easily. Selling an obviously difficult future is a tougher pitch. A lot of Dems are at heart conservatives not liberals. A lot voted for Reagan. Trump's cunningly ambiguous schtick if you bothered to listen was refried Reaganism as much as anything. He was always for free trade just on his terms. He would make America tired of winning. Bellicose isolationism is after all an old American and rather war loving tradition.

As a pretty scarily hawkish President unsurprisingly all he loses is a few Alt-Right Putin fanciers. That won't change if he starts a big shooting war in Korea and/or Iran. When Reagan's NAFTA turns out to be trickier than a stroke of a pen very few people care. Even The Wall not appearing can be blamed on Congress. A lot of Trump voters expressed some doubt about his ability to change things or indeed be a competent President. As such they're rather forgiving.

And conservatives already have some wins. Widely hated tree hugger measures are getting trashed. The Trump train will wreck Obamacare and they want that gone even if it hurts them. Most importantly he's going to pack the Supreme Court. That'll really fuck the liberal agenda for decades. Hopey changey things are genuinely being slung into reverse. Trump's lack of dignity, an asset as a candidate, may be his real Achilles heel as President. That hurts enthusiasm for him with conservatives.
 
He's going on about The Apprentice and fake news in his speech in Poland. What a fucking clown.
I wonder if that was in Miller's script?

On The Hill Travel ban architect writing Trump Poland speech: report
President Trump’s senior policy adviser Stephen Miller is drafting the president’s public speech to the Polish people that will be delivered in Warsaw’s Krasinski Square on Thursday, according to The Weekly Standard.

The publication reported the speech, which is also being drafted by two additional writers on Miller’s team, will be “uplifting” and hone in on Poland’s history and national identity.
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You, and the other one, have repeatedly insisted that it isn't the white working class who are his supporters and point to the higher end income profile of his voting base. Which is it?
The higher income groups support him because they will benefit from the tax cuts/deregulation. Much of the working class was suckered into supporting him and will be severely hurt by his and Rebub policies, but those fools will still support him.
 
The higher income groups support him because they will benefit from the tax cuts/deregulation. Much of the working class was suckered into supporting him and will be severely hurt by his and Rebub policies, but those fools will still support him.
Oh it's both then. How handy. But what about those income profiles of trump voters that cri kept posting - are they wrong then?
 
Oh it's both then. How handy. But what about those income profiles of trump voters that cri kept posting - are they wrong then?
I think it is true that the average Trump voter has a higher income than the average Hillary voter. But the lower income Trump voters gave him his victory. "There's a sucker born every minute." - P. T. Barnum
 
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The mistake US liberals make with electoral politics is assuming voter choices involve much rational thought. It's mostly impulse followed, sometimes, by logical justification. Which is how the brain works but isn't the 17th century model most liberals carry around. It really doesn't matter if you are some Redneck soaked in strange readings of Revelation or a Nuclear Physics PHD. Sure once policy craps all over them they may not like it but then it's too late and they'll often blame something else entirely.

People will repeatedly vote for very bad policy that hurts them and implausible politicians who will likely never deliver. It just has to tickle their fancy. There really aren't many swing voters in the US and they tend to be "low information" folks. Mobilisation is the key thing. Getting elected is really quite akin to selling soap powder or a real estate brand. That is an art of electric words that Trump has a knack for particular when degrading opponents. Low energy, little, lying, crooked, he's got a bully's gift for body slamming epithets. He's good at sowing discord in the enemy camp. Policy, meh, he'll just wing that for tonight's crowd. Trump is a human muck spreader happy to be a centre of chaos greedily hogging the spotlight.

Trouble is governing the US isn't like that. It gets really technocratic. Well beyond even running a multi-national like Exxon Mobile. You need well worked out policy and a deliberative process informed by a lot of experience. The US system is set up to impede change plus having one party that basically thinks government is the problem. If a President doesn't come with areas of consensus on The Hill they won't get much done no matter how hopey changey they have promised to be. They have to cope with a constraining legacy accrued over decades in foreign policy. Last three Presidents were all under qualified. Each one more so than the last. Pretty good at running but shite at governing. Trump is just the extreme example of effective sales bullshit coming into contact with the reality of office.
 
On Bloomberg EU, Japan Leaders Hail Free-Trade Pact in Riposte to Trump
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The breakthrough in the talks between Brussels and Tokyo came after the EU agreed to phase out its 10 percent import duty on cars from Japan and the Japanese government offered expanded access for European farm goods including cheese. The EU is the world’s largest cheese exporter, while Japan’s automakers have sought a level playing field in Europe with counterparts from South Korea.

Europe plans to scrap the levy on Japanese cars after seven years and Japan intends to end duties of around 30 percent on European hard cheese over 15 years, according to an EU official. Japan also intends to offer duty-free access for European soft and fresh cheese up to amounts equal to current trade levels, with the possibility for the import quotas to be increased, the official said on the condition of anonymity because the details of the draft accord have yet to be released.
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I didn't realise the Japanese were so into cheese.

The video is worth listening to. Trump dumping TPP may have precipitated this deal as it left a big hole in some Asian countries trade strategy. This is only a unexpectedly quick first step after four years of haggling with years to follow working out the details.

It's a funny old world. Donald Trump: making globalisation great again???
 
On Bloomberg These U.S. States Still Haven’t Fully Recovered From Recession
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“The hallmark of the recovery is that it is being driven by the nation’s largest metro areas,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania. “Metro areas have attracted millennials and boomer empty-nesters and are globally oriented, benefiting from global capital inflows. Rural economies that are dependent on commodity-based activities have suffered.”

Wyoming’s Dependence

Wyoming -- which has the second-smallest economy and depends on mining for one-fourth of GDP -- is a prime example, having suffered the biggest percentage decline in payrolls from the start of the recession in December 2007. The state, which went for Trump, is likely to be among the final two to return to peak employment, in 2022, according to forecasts by IHS Markit economists.
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Note the mining and other "commodity-based activities" a big thing for Trump.

Of course cities thriving off a knowledge economy isn't going to make left behind rural areas feel any better. Rather the reverse as a lot of the young folk are going to flit to where there are better prospects as highly mobile Americans always have across their open state borders.
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On CNBC Donald Trump's speech in Warsaw, Poland ahead of G-20 summit

"We are working with Poland in response to Russia's actions and destabilising behaviour."

Quite as confrontational as anything Clinton might have said. Trump'll be having an interesting chat with Putin I think.

He was also talking about reciprocal trade relationships with Poland which may raise some eyebrows with Brussels. The Trump team still don't seem to get that trade deals with EU members are not a matter of state on state haggling.
 
Did watch a snippet of his Warsaw speech earlier and found it scary, not funny at all. The blood of patriots the clash of civilisations traditional family values, a sea of jubilant uniform faces.
 
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Just a terrifying reminder that Rick Perry's remit includes securing the largest nuclear arsenal in the world.
 
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Oh it's both then. How handy. But what about those income profiles of trump voters that cri kept posting - are they wrong then?
Got to say I think it's 2 groups who support Trump also. Rich people who know the score and will really benefit from the tax cuts and deregulation and easily played angry blue collar voters in the rust belt who'll get less than fuck all but will probably have their anger redirected in the wrong direction when the benefits they were promised don't turn up.
 
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Got to say I think it's 2 groups who support Trump also. Rich people who know the score and will really benefit from the tax cuts and deregulation and easily played angry blue collar voters in the rust belt who'll get less than fuck all but will probably have their anger redirected in the wrong direction when the benefits they were promised don't turn up.
Well yes. As you say, the rich will back whoever they think will keep them rich and make them richer.

As I've said before, white blue collar workers fled the Democratic party in droves in the 1960's, just as the party began to back the civil rights movement and rights for women. They would have voted GOP regardless of who was on the ticket, but were and are more enthusiastic for Trump because they like his policies and he's much more open about the white supremacist, patriarchal basis of for them. All the folks mewling about how said it is that they've voted against their own interests clearly has no idea what their actual interests are. They see keeping women and minorities "in their place" as pretty key to maintaining, regaining or improving their own status and traditional place.

If the Democrats don't pledge this, they ain't gonna switch. Insisting this cohort be on board if the party is to win in future (coming mainly from the self-styled left in and outwith the party) is bizarre and only pisses off the minorities and women who are the backbone of the Democratic party. But, the same folk don't seem that bothered about abortion rights, and often dismiss civil rights as "identity politics," so maybe they are prepared to "negotiate." :rolleyes:
 
Got to say I think it's 2 groups who support Trump also. Rich people who know the score and will really benefit from the tax cuts and deregulation and easily played angry blue collar voters in the rust belt who'll get less than fuck all but will probably have their anger redirected in the wrong direction when the benefits they were promised don't turn up.

Here is a Doctor Who quote from 1997
“You know, the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common,” the Doctor said. “They don’t alter their views to fit the facts. They alter the facts to fit their views.”

I saw it as a gif on fb, but can't seem to find it :(
 
Here is a Doctor Who quote from 1997


I saw it as a gif on fb, but can't seem to find it :(
It's terrible that the rich and powerful have taken just anger about their shenanigans and misdirected it back upon their victims. Trump and Brexit. What a shit show.
 
The Remaking of Donald Trump
An interesting article this. Showing that back in his Apprentice days Trump was massively popular with black and hispanic viewers, much more so than with the white audience, such that his show was where advertisers went to reach those demographics.
It argues that he then made a conscious calculated decision to appeal to a new audience (grassroots conservatives traditional republican voters) by going for the Birther attack on Obama.
 
It's not like it's East LA. I think he can read a crowd. Like anyone was likely to shoot him at a well organised right wing party rally in Poland. He gave them what they wanted. After him leaning into the old Russki enemy on their behalf he's far safer there than when golfing.

In that case why did they have screens? Yes, it's a supportive crowd but one lone nutjob is all it takes. Well, one lone nutjob that isn't Trump, I mean.
 
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