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What stupid shit has Trump done today?

Climate change is already causing population movements, what are all the people who moved to the mainland US from Puerto Rico after last year's hurricane if not climate refugees? I don't think it's an either/or thing with the poverty issue, in Latin America as elsewhere, it's going to be the poorest people who are the hardest hit by things like stronger storms, crop failures, etc.

The area many of the Central American migrants arriving at the US border are coming from is called the "Dry Corridor" and drought has forced a lot of people to leave their land - talking about climate change driving migrants north isn't "neo-Malthusian doom-mongering," it's a description of what is already happening.

Changing climate forces desperate Guatemalans to migrate

Increased migration from Puerto Rico to the US mainland reflects the inadequate response to Hurricane Maria by the US government. A better response with a stronger focus on restoring infrastructure and rebuilding would not have led to so much migration.

With regard to the Central American drought such phenomena have been recurrent problem in the region since pre-Columbian times as your Natural Geographical article highlights. It even concedes that

While scientists know that El Niño contributes to increases in global temperatures, it is still unclear whether human-induced climate change is causing El Niño events to intensify and occur more frequently.

However, the reality is that this is an agricultural region where cash crops dominate the economy and where attempts at reform of agriculture have been dealt with brutally. For example the infamously brutalUS government intervention to overthrow a reformist democratically elected government in 1954 that challenged the interests of American fruit plantation
1954 Guatemalan coup d'état - Wikipedia

The people of El Salvador, Honduras and Guatemala have for decades been impoverished displaced and murdered in the interests of a rich domestic elite and international capital. The current drought is clearly an extra push factor in such disfunctional economies. Were these countries really run in the interest of their population, this drought could be managed.

Climate change is a reality a problem whose growth needs to be limited, and whose consequences mitigated. However, there is no sense in resorting either to 1970s disaster movies or the Book of Relevation in any discussion of the issue, such a hyperbolic approach merely plays into the hands of climate change deniers
 
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Good point here.


He's also managed to get his SOTU with this move. If he's as much of a petulant toddler as he makes himself out to be then, from his perspective, he's scored a win as Pelosi now has to back down over his SOTU request.

Now that he's partially had his way, his next shutdown will be longer (and nastier).
 
He's also managed to get his SOTU with this move. If he's as much of a petulant toddler as he makes himself out to be then, from his perspective, he's scored a win as Pelosi now has to back down over his SOTU request.

Now that he's partially had his way, his next shutdown will be longer (and nastier).
I do think things are likely to get worse yet, but I wouldn't say he's scored a win.

Well . . . got to admit, she knows how to get under his skin.

 
Because look at how the right built power, slowly taking control of electoral boards and the judiciary. They managed this without screaming victory and posting Twitter memes. Trump being a gobshite isn’t that useful other than as a distraction, the power is already in their hands. Maybe better if Democrats don’t do little victory dances and try to rub it in people’s faces.
 
I do think things are likely to get worse yet, but I wouldn't say he's scored a win.

Well . . . got to admit, she knows how to get under his skin.


The key part of what I said is that "from his perspective he's scored a win". By any objective measure he has lost. However, we are dealing with someone who plays by their own set of rules and determines victory or defeat by their own personal criteria. Getting his SOTU show back on track and, by extension, Pelosi now being required to re-invite him to the house is the personal victory here; you only have to look at the recent fuss he made about it to see that. He's also concerned about his polling figures tanking but he's likely banking on a bump in the numbers now that he's re-opened the govt.

Even though Pelosi still has caveats about him going ahead, he will now weaponise the SOTU issue in order to attempt to turn public opinion around and re-direct some of this ire back to the dems.

If he was genuinely interested in re-opening the govt. properly and not just granting this temporary repreive before digging in for another shutdown over this idiotic wall, it would not have been re-opened for 3-weeks. The man has already trailered a national emergency declaration as part of the upcoming Wall Shutdown II.
 
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Because look at how the right built power, slowly taking control of electoral boards and the judiciary. They managed this without screaming victory and posting Twitter memes. Trump being a gobshite isn’t that useful other than as a distraction, the power is already in their hands. Maybe better if Democrats don’t do little victory dances and try to rub it in people’s faces.

I'm not seeing any democrats, whether politicians or just ordinary people, thinking Trump is defeated, or are rubbing it in peoples faces, FFS. There are plenty of Americans who've been harmed by Trump/GOP actions, plenty of people who are trying to mitigate the impact of these brutal policies on the most vulnerable, trying every avenue to halt the rot and preserve what's left of democracy - sometimes all three at once. Understandably, people are frustrated and exhausted by the unrelenting Trump/GOP shitshow and are sickened by media's active participation in this. If a few jokes and memes give the people fighting what Trump/GOP are doing a laugh a lift, some hope, then why piss on their little moment of respite?

I also don't get this continuous threat that if Democrats don't mind their Ps and Qs, don't tiptoe on the eggshells, they might provoke Trump/GOP to do something even worse, and it will be their fault. It's bullshit advice for someone suffering abuse from a partner or a kid being bullied. It's bullshit in this context as well.

The key part of what I said is that "from his perspective he's scored a win". By any objective measure he has lost. However, we are dealing with someone who plays by their own set of rules and determines victory or defeat by their own personal criteria. Getting his SOTU show back on track and, by extension, Pelosi now being required to re-invite him to the house is the personal victory here; you only have to look at the recent fuss he made about it to see that. He's also concerned about his polling figures tanking but he's likely banking on a bump in the numbers now that he's re-opened the govt.

Even though Pelosi still has caveats about him going ahead, he will now weaponise the SOTU issue in order to attempt to turn public opinion around and re-direct some of this ire back to the dems.

If he was genuinely interested in re-opening the govt. properly and not just granting this temporary repreive before digging in for another shutdown over this idiotic wall, it would not have been re-opened for 3-weeks. The man has already trailered a national emergency declaration as part of the upcoming Wall Shutdown II.

By now, we all know that Trump and the GOP will spin any action to make it look "good" for them. They'll outright lie and insist they've won, and they would have done so this time, regardless of what Pelosi said or did. The people who already hate Democrats, hate Pelosi, hate women in leadership, etc., will continue to hate on her regardless. Yes, Trump will try and "weaponise" the situation to try and bump up his support, but he would have done that with whatever situation. The only people who'll buy his latest plate of bullshit will be the ones who already back him to the hilt, so his "numbers" are likely to get much of a "bump."

I would far rather see a Speaker of the House use the powers that are at their disposal, limited though they are, to undermine the Executive branch's continuing overreach. She's one of the few political leaders who's had the balls to stand up to him, to call out his toddler like, bully like behaviour. Plenty who opposed her as Speaker are changing their tune now. Her efforts may be just putting sand in the gears and tacks under the tires, but if it slows the machine, perhaps to allow other actions to come into play - the Mueller investigation, other legal action against Trump, his family and cronies, etc, then it's better than rolling over and playing dead, surely. Also, it gives some hope to the people fighting Trump/GOP to keep up that fight in whatever way they can.
 
By now, we all know that Trump and the GOP will spin any action to make it look "good" for them. They'll outright lie and insist they've won, and they would have done so this time, regardless of what Pelosi said or did. The people who already hate Democrats, hate Pelosi, hate women in leadership, etc., will continue to hate on her regardless. Yes, Trump will try and "weaponise" the situation to try and bump up his support, but he would have done that with whatever situation. The only people who'll buy his latest plate of bullshit will be the ones who already back him to the hilt, so his "numbers" are likely to get much of a "bump."

I would far rather see a Speaker of the House use the powers that are at their disposal, limited though they are, to undermine the Executive branch's continuing overreach. She's one of the few political leaders who's had the balls to stand up to him, to call out his toddler like, bully like behaviour. Plenty who opposed her as Speaker are changing their tune now. Her efforts may be just putting sand in the gears and tacks under the tires, but if it slows the machine, perhaps to allow other actions to come into play - the Mueller investigation, other legal action against Trump, his family and cronies, etc, then it's better than rolling over and playing dead, surely. Also, it gives some hope to the people fighting Trump/GOP to keep up that fight in whatever way they can.
Are you actually being aggressive in your use of quotation marks here or am I misreading the intent of your post? :confused:
And, more generally, is that your reading of my post? Is that what you took away from it?
 
QfQ9G2Z.jpg

Trump and Cohen Received Gun Licenses in Exchange for Favors, Former Police Official Alleges

President Trump, his eldest son, and his former lawyer, Michael D. Cohen, were among a roster of rich and powerful people who received gun licenses from the New York Police Department in return for special favors, a former lieutenant has claimed in court papers.

The former lieutenant, Paul Dean, said the men received permits to carry guns in New York City without the proper paperwork after donating to two charities with close ties to the department. They were among a list of other well-connected people who Mr. Dean said benefited from a “systematic culture of corruption” that stretched from the department’s gun licensing division to the upper echelons of the department.

Continued:

Trump and Cohen Received Gun Licenses in Exchange for Favors, Former Police Official Alleges
 
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Are you actually being aggressive in your use of quotation marks here or am I misreading the intent of your post? :confused:
And, more generally, is that your reading of my post? Is that what you took away from it?
I think you are perhaps misreading and perhaps I also misunderstood the intention of your post. I do regret if that is the case.

The post From Dogsauce seemed to be scolding Democrats for joking about or celebrating Trump backing down (partially, yes of course), suggesting they think it's all over and Trump is toast or something. Having a laugh and a moment of hope in a bleak situation doesn't mean you're resting on your laurels.

Your post said Trump would weaponise the State of the Union speech bunfight to try and make Pelosi look bad and in hopes of bumping up his ratings, which I took to mean you thought her actions were wrong/counterproductive - either because it achieved only a temporary reprieve or because Pelosi poked the hornet's next, Trump/GOP will come up with something even more damaging and cruel than they'd have done otherwise. Democrats in Congress, and among the ordinary everyday members know that Trump is unpredictable, and will randomly blame them for shit, regardless of what they do. I read your post as a criticism of the Speaker and of Democrats generally, but I may have misunderstood.

It's to the point where the mainstream media will go for whatever "take" gets the most clicks, and after three years, I've given up on the idea that they'll grow enough moral fibre to restore their backbones. But, as Speaker of the House, for the first time since Trump took office, they are covering news conferences from a leading Democrat who's being tactful but pretty blunt in calling out Trump. While I think the hardcore of MAGA folk are beyond redemption, the recent shut down impacted on a lot of people who were previously ok or even agnostic about Trump, or fairly disengaged from all things political. After they or loved ones were forced to work for IOUs, sent home on indefinite unpaid leave, or saw their cafes, shops or other businesses near Federal buildings collapse, they might just be a bit more receptive to Pelosi's message, and style.
 
The key part of what I said is that "from his perspective he's scored a win". By any objective measure he has lost. However, we are dealing with someone who plays by their own set of rules and determines victory or defeat by their own personal criteria. Getting his SOTU show back on track and, by extension, Pelosi now being required to re-invite him to the house is the personal victory here;
Pence had a meeting with Senate Republicans on Thursday and on Friday Trump caved.
This is not a win, its a rapidly emerging lame duck president having lost his legislature allies on a highly divisive policy course.
His gamble was that the tax cuts and trade war would bring growth and jobs making him popular, that has not happened. Now he is in a very tight spot with little beyond the Republican base behind him. That is way too little for him to win in 2020 so if he cannot pull a rabbit from the hat, the Repulicans on the Hill will ditch him.
mehta-POLLAPALOOZA-0124-1.png


The Republicans on the Hill were the ones taking the least damage from this. But that was not going to return the House to them in 2020. Trump's popularity with the Republican base is the only thing between him and the legislators throwing him under a bus right now. This was a desperate strategy to try to gain an easy win over the House Democrats, they held firm and even bit the bullet with the dis-invite.
Once the public discourse starts that he is a lame duck, his authority will ebb rapidly and his problems mount.

The other big issue for republican party managers is state legislatures. They draw the congress districts and in many of them there are Democrat majorities by vote but Republican majorities in the state and Congress seats returned. If Trumps unpopularity turns a few of those Democrat in 2020 it will be big long term losses for the Republican machine, on top of the demographic shift towards a less white more educated population currently under way.

Trump got bullied into cracking by his own team.

There is no 4D chess here, just a man running out of alleys to run down and with few rabbits left in his hat.

bacon-SHUTDDOWN-0125.png
 
It’s better for Trump to play the underdog, elate Pelosi so there is a hate figure for right wing rage to focus on (and sadly easier if it’s a woman). It’s politically useful to have a target to fight against, rather than something to fight for. Watch this campaign develop.

Yes I'm sure that Trump's core support will have no trouble pinning the blame on Pelosi. I doubt he's got enough 'core support' to win another election though and I think he'll lose a lot of the relatively sane republicans with this fiasco.
 
I doubt he's got enough 'core support' to win another election though
His polling has remained rock solid between 38 and 42% approval. But he has held about 90% among "Republican" identifying respondents to polls. Never close to enough to win again in 2020..
and I think he'll lose a lot of the relatively sane republicans with this fiasco.
The movement here is remarkable. In November, Trump was seven points underwater with independents. Since then, the gulf between his disapproval and approval has widened an additional 22 points. Among Republicans, who generally like Trump, there was a similar change. He was 82 points above water in November and is now only 62 points above water, with his approval among Republicans dropping below 80 percent. That’s a swing of minus-20 points. (By contrast, the swing toward Trump among Democrats was only plus-14 points.)
Those are the relatively minor shifts against Trump. Notice the graph for independent women. In November, Trump was six points underwater with that group. Since, he’s dropped to minus-51, with 6 in 10 independent women now saying they view him with strong disapproval. The margin of error with this group is larger than the overall population, of course, but that’s a significant change. Among Republican women, Trump’s net approval dropped 26 points.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...tanked-since-november/?utm_term=.3e3eb4ca8c55

He is toast. The shutdown polling wont last past the shut down, though he seems to want another in 3 weeks. The loss of authority from being yesterdays man in 23 months time will be crippling.

I have seen no credible poll that gives him a snowballs chance in hell. As an outsider in primaries that can be over come. But as a president left holding the bag?

He is playing 2D without a queen or rooks and now just shifting around to avoid check mate. The clock is ticking.
 
Assuming Trump doesn't run in 2020 I wonder what happens to the millions in donations to his re-election campaign which, you'll recall, he started as soon as he was elected to office.

:hmm:
 
I think you are perhaps misreading and perhaps I also misunderstood the intention of your post. I do regret if that is the case.
Fair enough. It seems my communication these days is somewhat crap...

Your post said Trump would weaponise the State of the Union speech bunfight to try and make Pelosi look bad and in hopes of bumping up his ratings, which I took to mean you thought her actions were wrong/counterproductive - either because it achieved only a temporary reprieve or because Pelosi poked the hornet's next, Trump/GOP will come up with something even more damaging and cruel than they'd have done otherwise. Democrats in Congress, and among the ordinary everyday members know that Trump is unpredictable, and will randomly blame them for shit, regardless of what they do. I read your post as a criticism of the Speaker and of Democrats generally, but I may have misunderstood.
Yeah, I clearly need to work on my communication skills. I was not offering up any criticism of Pelosi or the dems for holding firm against Trump. It would have been insane for the dems to cave to Trump over this funding issue anyway as he would have no qualms about repeating the governemnt shutdown as a negotiating tactic if he was successful using such strongarm tactics this time around...

What I meant by 'weaponise' was more along the lines of how a petulant spoiled child would weaponise a similar scenario with their parents when called on their bullshit:

* Trump has signed off the re-opening of the govt and, knowing what he's like, will demand an immediate quid pro quo (and knowing that cunt he will try and get the go-ahead for the original Jan 29th date in the knowledge that it is probably not likely at such short notice).
* He will create a lot of noise around any delay -even though a delay is likely (this will make the compliant media over there shift their focus from the ongoing shitstorm surrounding the mueller investigation seeing as what passes for a focused news agenda over there resembles a cat chasing a laser pointer).
* Because the guy is so fucking divorced from reality, the fact that Pelosi will have to lift her ban on his SOTU from the house will count as a win to him despite the wider damage to his ratings/standings with the US public/standings within the GOP that this shutdown has caused. As many have said, he doesn't like being told to sling his hook by a woman and resents the very idea that he's been successfully challenged by one. Lets not forget that he's a pigshit-thick egomaniac with a barely cogent grasp of the big picture let alone detail and nuance...

Pence had a meeting with Senate Republicans on Thursday and on Friday Trump caved.
This is not a win, its a rapidly emerging lame duck president having lost his legislature allies on a highly divisive policy course.
His gamble was that the tax cuts and trade war would bring growth and jobs making him popular, that has not happened. Now he is in a very tight spot with little beyond the Republican base behind him. That is way too little for him to win in 2020 so if he cannot pull a rabbit from the hat, the Repulicans on the Hill will ditch him.
mehta-POLLAPALOOZA-0124-1.png


The Republicans on the Hill were the ones taking the least damage from this. But that was not going to return the House to them in 2020. Trump's popularity with the Republican base is the only thing between him and the legislators throwing him under a bus right now. This was a desperate strategy to try to gain an easy win over the House Democrats, they held firm and even bit the bullet with the dis-invite.
Once the public discourse starts that he is a lame duck, his authority will ebb rapidly and his problems mount.

The other big issue for republican party managers is state legislatures. They draw the congress districts and in many of them there are Democrat majorities by vote but Republican majorities in the state and Congress seats returned. If Trumps unpopularity turns a few of those Democrat in 2020 it will be big long term losses for the Republican machine, on top of the demographic shift towards a less white more educated population currently under way.

Trump got bullied into cracking by his own team.

There is no 4D chess here, just a man running out of alleys to run down and with few rabbits left in his hat.

bacon-SHUTDDOWN-0125.png
I don't disagree with any of that. The only thing that I have a problem with is quoting my post as if I'm saying it's an actual win for Trump as opposed to what I imagine his fevered imagination is telling him. As for the 4D chess shit, I doubt that guy could master regular chess. The man's an obnoxious unstable buffoon.
 
Pence had a meeting with Senate Republicans on Thursday and on Friday Trump caved.
This is not a win, its a rapidly emerging lame duck president having lost his legislature allies on a highly divisive policy course.
His gamble was that the tax cuts and trade war would bring growth and jobs making him popular, that has not happened. Now he is in a very tight spot with little beyond the Republican base behind him. That is way too little for him to win in 2020 so if he cannot pull a rabbit from the hat, the Repulicans on the Hill will ditch him.
mehta-POLLAPALOOZA-0124-1.png


The Republicans on the Hill were the ones taking the least damage from this. But that was not going to return the House to them in 2020. Trump's popularity with the Republican base is the only thing between him and the legislators throwing him under a bus right now. This was a desperate strategy to try to gain an easy win over the House Democrats, they held firm and even bit the bullet with the dis-invite.
Once the public discourse starts that he is a lame duck, his authority will ebb rapidly and his problems mount.

The other big issue for republican party managers is state legislatures. They draw the congress districts and in many of them there are Democrat majorities by vote but Republican majorities in the state and Congress seats returned. If Trumps unpopularity turns a few of those Democrat in 2020 it will be big long term losses for the Republican machine, on top of the demographic shift towards a less white more educated population currently under way.

Trump got bullied into cracking by his own team.

There is no 4D chess here, just a man running out of alleys to run down and with few rabbits left in his hat.

bacon-SHUTDDOWN-0125.png
I think there has been a "mutually beneficial relationship" between Trump and the GOP. He wasn't their first pick, and there were many hard swallows when he got through the primaries, but figured he was still the best bet for getting through the laws and policies they wanted, and to pack the courts to impose their world view on America, indefinitely. That's something about Republicans of my acquaintance. They seem to have this idea that they are the "natural" party of government and the Democratic Party are interlopers - against the natural order. More recently, they seem to be trying to take that to the logical conclusion of creating a one party state.

If Trump is no longer useful to them, and he has been very useful to them so far, they'll figure out a way to ditch him. I have no doubt about that. The problem is, part of the GOP deal with the Devil has meant getting entwined shit that hopefully will start to catch up with them, whether it's the dealings with the NRA, being blackmailed via content on the hacked RNC server, their dubious financial interests, including bungs from outside countries, etc. Pence and most of the GOP leadership will be high on that list. I'd like to see every single one prosecuted.

If the GOP fail in their efforts to establish a one party state (with or without Trump), then I can't see the party having a future. The rank corruption runs from top to bottom.

I've said before, I can't imagine any way things can return to "business as usual" if the US survives this period. Trump loyalists worship him like they used to worship Jesus. The same core of people were furious at the election of a Black president, and some never accepted his presidency as legitimate (e.g. In the county I come from, it's a tradition to hang a portrait of the sitting president in the main chamber. They left the wall blank during Obama's two terms, and put up one of Trump within minutes of the election being called.) They won't just go, "Ok, fair enough, you guys won, hey congratulations!" Will need to be some kind of truth and reconciliation process, or there will be a risk of civil war. When people become that polarised in their views and loyalties, you can't just get them to have a group hug and get over it.

(Any similarities with the Brexit situ in the UK are purely intentional.) :(
 
Fair enough. It seems my communication these days is somewhat crap...


Yeah, I clearly need to work on my communication skills. I was not offering up any criticism of Pelosi or the dems for holding firm against Trump. It would have been insane for the dems to cave to Trump over this funding issue anyway as he would have no qualms about repeating the governemnt shutdown as a negotiating tactic if he was successful using such strongarm tactics this time around...

What I meant by 'weaponise' was more along the lines of how a petulant spoiled child would weaponise a similar scenario with their parents when called on their bullshit:

* Trump has signed off the re-opening of the govt and, knowing what he's like, will demand an immediate quid pro quo (and knowing that cunt he will try and get the go-ahead for the original Jan 29th date in the knowledge that it is probably not likely at such short notice).
* He will create a lot of noise around any delay -even though a delay is likely (this will make the compliant media over there shift their focus from the ongoing shitstorm surrounding the mueller investigation seeing as what passes for a focused news agenda over there resembles a cat chasing a laser pointer).
* Because the guy is so fucking divorced from reality, the fact that Pelosi will have to lift her ban on his SOTU from the house will count as a win to him despite the wider damage to his ratings/standings with the US public/standings within the GOP that this shutdown has caused. As many have said, he doesn't like being told to sling his hook by a woman and resents the very idea that he's been successfully challenged by one. Lets not forget that he's a pigshit-thick egomaniac with a barely cogent grasp of the big picture let alone detail and nuance...


I don't disagree with any of that. The only thing that I have a problem with is quoting my post as if I'm saying it's an actual win for Trump as opposed to what I imagine his fevered imagination is telling him. As for the 4D chess shit, I doubt that guy could master regular chess. The man's an obnoxious unstable buffoon.
No worries. I confess my fuse shortens as I get older, and the political situ on both sides of the Atlantic hasn't made things easier! ;)

Trump is definitely an obnoxious, unstable buffoon, but he's also in a very powerful position. Whether it's him or those around him that are driving the strategy, it's still a dangerous situation at the moment. Hard to stay optimistic. :(
 
Assuming Trump doesn't run in 2020 I wonder what happens to the millions in donations to his re-election campaign which, you'll recall, he started as soon as he was elected to office.

:hmm:

Tbh Trump campaign contributors being ripped off is not my major concern at this point.
 
The only thing that I have a problem with is quoting my post as if I'm saying it's an actual win for Trump as opposed to what I imagine his fevered imagination is telling him
He knows he lost. Pence came back from the Hill empty and he had to through in the towel.
 
I love it when Trump attacks his 'friends'. This sort of split is excellent news for everyone else.

Donald Trump criticizes Fox News for border wall coverage

President Donald Trump lashed out at the media again Sunday night.

Only this time, Trump directed his unhappiness at Fox News, singling out a pair of reporters from his seemingly favorite news outlet for their coverage of the border wall and recent partial government shutdown, assessing that John Roberts and Gillian Turner have “less understanding” than “fake news” reporters from other media organizations.
 
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