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US election 2012

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savoloysam said:
It's gonna come down to vote rigging Florida again isn't it, in which case bye bye barack.
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No, it's coming down to Ohio, where Obama is ahead, by more than he was in the summer and without which Romney can't win.

Ignore the national polls, Obama is ahead almost everywhere that matters. Red states going redder makes not one bit of difference
 
leftistangel said:
Those polls don´t reassure me at all i´m afraid. Quite the opposite.

With 206, Romney just needs
Florida 29 - Where he has an ever growing polling lead in a state which often votes Red.
Colorado 9 - Consistent momentum in the polls to draw slightly ahead
Virginia 13 - Where he is leading in some polls, a huge momentum shift from just a few weeks ago.
And Ohio 18 - Where again, after being consistently behind in the polls, he is either just a couple of points to actually drawing level.

And with polls often having a 2% margin of error id say Obamas chances - dependant on Ohio, not exactly a Democrat strongold - of staying in the White House are melting away with each passing day.

Once you loose momentum in elections you never get it back. A remarkable turnaround.
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Nah, Nate Silver still has Obama on a 75ish% chance of winning. Considering how spot on he got everything four years ago, I'll go with him. All Romney's done is convince ultra conservatives in Red states to back him. BO's going to romp home with 300+ electoral college votes
 
New York's Mickey Bloom endorses Obama.

If the 1994 or 2003 version of Mitt Romney were running for president, I may well have voted for him because, like so many other independents, I have found the past four years to be, in a word, disappointing.

In 2008, Obama ran as a pragmatic problem-solver and consensus-builder. But as president, he devoted little time and effort to developing and sustaining a coalition of centrists, which doomed hope for any real progress on illegal guns, immigration, tax reform, job creation and deficit reduction. And rather than uniting the country around a message of shared sacrifice, he engaged in partisan attacks and has embraced a divisive populist agenda focused more on redistributing income than creating it.

Nevertheless, the president has achieved some important victories on issues that will help define our future. His Race to the Top education program – much of which was opposed by the teachers’ unions, a traditional Democratic Party constituency – has helped drive badly needed reform across the country, giving local districts leverage to strengthen accountability in the classroom and expand charter schools. His health-care law – for all its flaws - will provide insurance coverage to people who need it most and save lives.

When I step into the voting booth, I think about the world I want to leave my two daughters, and the values that are required to guide us there. The two parties’ nominees for president offer different visions of where they want to lead America.

One believes a woman’s right to choose should be protected for future generations; one does not. That difference, given the likelihood of Supreme Court vacancies, weighs heavily on my decision.

One recognizes marriage equality as consistent with America’s march of freedom; one does not. I want our president to be on the right side of history.

One sees climate change as an urgent problem that threatens our planet; one does not. I want our president to place scientific evidence and risk management above electoral politics.

Of course, neither candidate has specified what hard decisions he will make to get our economy back on track while also balancing the budget. But in the end, what matters most isn't the shape of any particular proposal; it’s the work that must be done to bring members of Congress together to achieve bipartisan solutions.

Presidents Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan both found success while their parties were out of power in Congress – and President Obama can, too. If he listens to people on both sides of the aisle, and builds the trust of moderates, he can fulfill the hope he inspired four years ago and lead our country toward a better future for my children and yours. And that's why I will be voting for him.
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For a brief, brief moment I thought that was those other Koch guys. Which would have been extraordinary.
 
Im more than a little bit tickled at one of the Chrysler V.P's tweeting at Donald Trump "You're full of shit!"

Trump has been repeating the Republican line about Chrysler et al shipping jobs out :facepalm:
 


This has caused quite a stir. A few republicans have voiced their annoyance at Christie daring to give a shit about his state instead of sticking to vicious partisan lines. I don't know much about Christie other than having heard his name spoken in a derogatory way. Christie 2016?

The video is quite fun to watch though. The Fox&Friends trio of arsewipes clearly having "OMG WTF IS HE SAYING" flashing behind their empty eyes, as he's talking unashamedly about asking FEMA for help, praising FEMA, praising Obama, and then having the barefaced nerve to say he couldn't give a flying fuck what Romney is doing. Amusing stuff.
 
:D Christie is doing exactly the right thing as NJ Governor by fucking off the campaign stuff, and with his reported antipathy to Romney is probably going to look back on this as a job well done in sticking the boot in. I do actually, weirdly, feel that he's not playing politics but recognises his state just got really, really bloody damaged.
 
He's also playing politics. Being a politician and all that. Obama's going to walk this election and 2016 will be wide open.

And how sad it is that with America's electoral cycle so fixed we're already looking at 2016.
 
Balbi said:
:D Christie is doing exactly the right thing as NJ Governor by fucking off the campaign stuff, and with his reported antipathy to Romney is probably going to look back on this as a job well done in sticking the boot in. I do actually, weirdly, feel that he's not playing politics but recognises his state just got really, really bloody damaged.
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Might have one eye on 2016 esp if Mittens loses on Tue
 
Gingerman said:
Might have one eye on 2016 esp if Mittens loses on Tue
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Oh yeah, after turning down the VP slot - eyes on 2016. It's just odd given prominent Republicans of the last few months either spouting nonsense and shooting themselves in the foot attempting to whackamole Obama, that here's a Republican who's done neither when given a big stage on which to do so.
 
Balbi said:
Oh yeah, after turning down the VP slot - eyes on 2016.
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Did he turn it down? Radio coverage I was listening to the other day had it that he was considered but not chosen, with the rationale that the NJ "bully" style (their words) doesn't play well outside of the area.
 
Corax said:
Did he turn it down? Radio coverage I was listening to the other day had it that he was considered but not chosen, with the rationale that the NJ "bully" style (their words) doesn't play well outside of the area.
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Lots of media chatter around selection time that Christie didn't think Romney would win, placed in lovely 'I love NJ' language.
 
If he wants the Presidency and one of those two twin brothers in the Democrats wants it, 2016 could be interesting viewing.
 
So, Sandy as the 'October surprise'? To be fair, the numbers have been moving back BO's way for a couple of weeks anyway but I think this seals it. Obama gets to behave all Presidential, Romney looks impotent (and worse - posing collecting tinned food in Ohio which a) wasn't needed for disaster relief anyway and b) was supposedly paid for by his campaign who then got supporters to show up with it and present it to Mittens).

Polling numbers seem to suggest that Ohio is just in Democrat hands meaning Romney is seriously struggling to win, even if he bags neck and neck Florida on Tuesday. Without Ohio, Romney is gonna need Wisconsin or Michigan to fall to him and that just aint likely. Obama has a greater range of possibilities open. Four more years then.

(With thanks to Nate Silver, without whom I'd be lost in a sea of confusing polls and electoral college maths :D )
 
Think the republicans are massively hurt that obama didnt ignore nj like bush did for katrina.
Tbf theres little the president can do to make things better and actually having him turn up is a pain in the arse.
But it has to happen the president needs to make an apperance.
 
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