US election 2012

[Hocus Eye.]

I'd like to think so but I think a Romney defeat will cause a new war within the GOP with the evangelicals and dominionists trying to pull it even further down the path of lunacy which itself will further isolate it from mainstream America (and reality itself) If they succeed, I think we may be seeing the beginning of the end not of the evangelical right but of the Republican Party itself.

(my emphasis)
That would be good, but I can't see it happening. There's a lot of red-necks about and they need a party to vent their frustrations in.

 

[Vintage Paw]

In 2016 we'll see a very, very different race. This is the last time they can afford to focus on the rich and/or bigoted white vote, and I think they know it. Those ideological beliefs that have fuelled the teabaggers are on the wrong side of history (which is why they emerged to begin with - feeling cornered by an increasingly socially progressive tide of history, they fight back in a last (and very loud) gasp). They just don't have the numbers to win an election on the far right now. They are going to have to move a little nudge back to the middle, in order to fight for those votes from those who are disgruntled with Obama. The field of GOP noms this year was abysmal, and it was likely because anyone with real aspiration is waiting for Obama's time to be up. I believe we'll see more candidates like Jeb Bush next time. And it will be a far different race.

 

[Idris2002]

In 2016 we'll see a very, very different race. This is the last time they can afford to focus on the rich and/or bigoted white vote, and I think they know it. Those ideological beliefs that have fuelled the teabaggers are on the wrong side of history (which is why they emerged to begin with - feeling cornered by an increasingly socially progressive tide of history, they fight back in a last (and very loud) gasp). They just don't have the numbers to win an election on the far right now. They are going to have to move a little nudge back to the middle, in order to fight for those votes from those who are disgruntled with Obama. The field of GOP noms this year was abysmal, and it was likely because anyone with real aspiration is waiting for Obama's time to be up. I believe we'll see more candidates like Jeb Bush next time. And it will be a far different race.

The thing is, that the antics of the far right are so awful that the GOP brand may be severely damaged - permanently so, in fact. Well, it can't hurt to dream.

 

[Vintage Paw]

I think that's why Fox is starting to criticise the campaign as well. They know Romney can't win now, and they know he makes the GOP look bad. Criticising him now allows them to fight for the kind of GOP that is sustainable in the long run once the 2016 race rolls around.

 

[dylans]

(my emphasis)
That would be good, but I can't see it happening. There's a lot of red-necks about and they need a party to vent their frustrations in.

Yeah but the demographics are against them. If we accept that the Republican base is amongst white people, especially rural whites and those without a college education, then that demographic is declining. The number of non white voters is growing by a half a percent a year. That's two percent every election. This percentage is even more dramatic in swing states. Colorado, Nevada, and Arizona for example have growing Latino populations. Virginia and North Carolina have a growing population of college educated whites and all these states have a growing Democratic base. By 2020 non white voters will represent a third of the electorate. In 30 years they will outnumber whites and this group overwhelmingly vote democrat.

This means that the GOP has a choice, either it changes to meet that changing demographic or, as I think it is going to do, it turns in on itself and moves to the political positions represented by the extremes in its dwindling base. I think the post defeat period is going to see a battle over the Republican Party's soul and the Right, especially the religious Right are highly organised and very motivated, more than their numbers would indicate in fact.. If they win that battle then I predict the Republican party will continue to embrace the more lunatic of its positions and inevitably continue to decline.

 

[Vintage Paw]

The thing is, that the antics of the far right are so awful that the GOP brand may be severely damaged - permanently so, in fact. Well, it can't hurt to dream.

A lot of people have very short memories when it comes to standing by their political affiliations. Romney might be fucking the brand, but a new person can sweep in and remake it in their image, and give it renewed life, blaming Romney, Ryan, and the rest of their sycophants in the process, to avoid tarring all Repubs with the same brush.

 

[Vintage Paw]

Yeah but the demographics are against them. If we accept that the Republican base is amongst white people, especially rural whites and those without a college education, then that demographic is declining. The number of non white voters is growing by a half a percent a year. That's two percent every election. This percentage is even more dramatic in swing states. Colorado, Nevada, and Arizona for example have growing Latino populations. Virginia and North Carolina have a growing population of college educated whites and all these states have a growing Democratic base. By 2020 non white voters will represent a third of the electorate. In 30 years they will outnumber whites and this group overwhelmingly vote democrat.

This means that the GOP has a choice, either it changes to meet that changing demographic or, as I think it is going to do, it turns in on itself and moves to the political positions represented by the extremes in its dwindling base. I think the post defeat period is going to see a battle over the Republican Party's soul and the Right, especially the religious Right are highly organised and very motivated, more than their numbers would indicate in fact.. If they win that battle then I predict the Republican party will continue to embrace the more lunatic of its positions and inevitably continue to decline.

Those are the two choices it has, but I think it'll do the opposite. Romney's been attracting criticism from many within his own party lately, because they are politically sound enough to realise he has no idea how to play the game of politics in a way that will get him elected, and that he's ruining the party to boot. I have no doubt the outliers will remain, and they will be as vocal as ever, but there will be a shift where it matters, as they realise they have to compete with for the votes of the centre.

 

[TomUS]

I'd like to think so but I think a Romney defeat will cause a new war within the GOP with the evangelicals and dominionists trying to pull it even further down the path of lunacy which itself will further isolate it from mainstream America (and reality itself) If they succeed, I think we may be seeing the beginning of the end not of the evangelical right but of the Republican Party itself.

Right. If they lose they'll go even further looney right like they did when McCain lost. It's politically suicidal in the long run. Their main appeal is to older white males who's % of the electorate is shrinking. As Sen. Lindsay Graham said recently

“The demographics race we’re losing badly … We’re not generating enough angry white guys to stay in business for the long term.”

 

[Vintage Paw]

This guy....

Romney’s wife, Ann, was in attendance, and the candidate spoke of the concern he had for her when her plane had to make an emergency landing Friday en route to Santa Monica because of an electrical malfunction.

“I appreciate the fact that she is on the ground, safe and sound. And I don’t think she knows just how worried some of us were,” Romney said. “When you have a fire in an aircraft, there’s no place to go, exactly, there’s no — and you can’t find any oxygen from outside the aircraft to get in the aircraft, because the windows don’t open. I don’t know why they don’t do that. It’s a real problem. So it’s very dangerous. And she was choking and rubbing her eyes. Fortunately, there was enough oxygen for the pilot and copilot to make a safe landing in Denver. But she’s safe and sound.”

SCIENCE.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-romney-beverly-hills-fundraiser-20120922,0,2317962.story

 

[mauvais]

Mitt should donate his oxygen.

Also the windows don't open in case you stick your head out and it gets cut off by a plane going the other way. It could fall on a town and make a crater.

 

[Vintage Paw]

Mitt wants the plane windows to open so he can roll it down and check how his dog is doing strapped to the wing.

 

[TomUS]

George comes through with $2,000,000.

The Democrats heavy-hitters are finally coming out of the dugout to play ball in the brave new world of unlimited contributions and super PACs.
A spokesperson for Priorities USA Action, the super PAC backing President Barack Obama's reelection, confirmed to The Huffington Post Thursday that billionaire investor George Soros has committed $1 million to the PAC.
The New York Times' Nick Confessore was first to publish the news about the Priorities donation and, in addition, reported that Soros will donate $500,000 to each of the two Democratic super PACs working in the House and Senate elections.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/27/george-soros-super-pac_n_1920491.html

 

[Gingerman]

Mitt wants the plane windows to open so he can roll it down and check how his dog is doing strapped to the wing.

 

[Gingerman]

 

[dylans]

Right. If they lose they'll go even further looney right like they did when McCain lost. It's politically suicidal in the long run. Their main appeal is to older white males who's % of the electorate is shrinking. As Sen. Lindsay Graham said recently

Reading the claims of Romney supporters on various websites, it is apparent that many of them are clinging to the delusion that their guy is still going to win. They are dismissing poll results as some sort of liberal conspiracy. Hardly surprising given that reality doesn't seem very important to many of them at the best of times.

This makes me think two things. First, they are going to be very disappointed obviously but also a significant proportion of them are simply not going to accept the results. Expect conspiracy theories about how Romney really won. Some of these guys are way out there when it comes to blatant reality denial.

This is potentially quite dangerous because it plays into the whole right wing militia narrative of armed resistance against tyranny etc. I think the potential for right wing violence following the election is quite real.

 

[Hocus Eye.]

If Romney thinks that plane windows should open then he is as dumb as Bush junior. Where do they get these people?

 

[Quartz]

Reading the claims of Romney supporters on various websites, it is apparent that many of them are clinging to the delusion that their guy is still going to win. They are dismissing poll results as some sort of liberal conspiracy.

Psephologists have got it wrong before, but really, absent a major scandal Obama's going to walk it.

 

[TomUS]

I think the potential for right wing violence following the election is quite real.

Yep. They better boost secret service protection for him. Flipping through the radio dial & catching bits of the right wing hate talkers, it's obvious that many actually believe he's a Communist/Muslim fundamentalist (?????) who hates America & want's to destroy "our way of life." And they have most of the guns.

 

[dylans]

 

[Gingerman]

Nuttier than squirrel shit

 

[Quartz]

Yep. They better boost secret service protection for him. Flipping through the radio dial & catching bits of the right wing hate talkers, it's obvious that many actually believe he's a Communist/Muslim fundamentalist (?????) who hates America & want's to destroy "our way of life." And they have most of the guns.

As long as the election is seen as fair, I very much doubt there will be violence. Was there not much the same talk in 2004 about the Democrats?

 

[Balbi]

Andy Parsons put it well on Mock The Week last night.

John McCain couldn't beat George W Bush in 2000, Mitt Romney couldn't beat John McCain in 2008. So in 2012 the Republican candidate is the guy who couldn't beat the guy who couldn't beat George W Bush

 

[dylans]

As long as the election is seen as fair, I very much doubt there will be violence. Was there not much the same talk in 2004 about the Democrats?

You miss the point. The lunatic fringe of the Christian Right are not playing by the same rules of reality as everyone else. Theirs is a paranoid world view in which Obama is a secret Muslim communist seeking revenge for colonialism by bringing the US to ruin. To these people, an Obama victory can only be a coup. They are convinced that everyone in America shares their narrow world view and that Romney is going to win. Therefore the only explanation for a Romney defeat is that the election is stolen. They actually believe this shit.

An opinion poll of Ohio Republicans showed that 15% of them think Romney is responsible for killing Osama Bin Laden and 47% said they were "not sure".

What does Mitt Romney have to do with killing Osama bin Laden? According to a notable percentage of Ohio Republicans, way more than that good-for-nothing Barack Obama.
According to a PPP poll of likely Ohio voters, 15 percent of Republicans in Ohio think Romney is “more responsible” for bin Laden’s death than Obama, while 47 percent of Republicans are “not sure” whether Obama or Romney deserves more of the credit.
Six percent of the overall respondents gave Romney credit where credit is not at all due. Thirty-one percent of them weren’t sure whether the president or the candidate deserves more credit.

These people base their views on a non reality based belief system. Anything but a Romney victory will be seen as fraudulent. These people are fucking nuts and they are in for a major disappointment come November

 

[Quartz]

You miss the point. The lunatic fringe of the Christian Right are not playing by the same rules of reality as everyone else. Theirs is a paranoid world view in which Obama is a secret Muslim communist seeking revenge for colonialism by bringing the US to ruin. To these people, an Obama victory can only be a coup. They are convinced that everyone in America shares their narrow world view and therefore the only explanation for a Romney defeat is that the election is stolen. They actually believe this shit.

As compared with the Democrats who believed the 2004 election was stolen? Both sides have their nutters. But they're just wind and piss.

 

[Random]

These people base their views on a non reality based belief system. Anything but a Romney victory will be seen as fraudulent. These people are fucking nuts and they are in for a major disappointment come November

What form would this violence take? A general upsurge in racial tensions? Terrorist attacks?

Another point is that the Republicans may take the Senate soon. giving them the power to hobble Obama, and also causing a swing in power within the republicans, from the discredited presidential candidates, to the party's elected representatives. So this may limit the extent to which they implode.

 

[dylans]

As compared with the Democrats who believed the 2004 election was stolen? Both sides have their nutters. But they're just wind and piss.

In2004 Democrats had a case. That election was so close that the Supreme Court had to make that decision in dubious circumstances. There is a difference between contesting a narrow victory and dismissing a 5 point lead and the virtual freefall of your candidate as a liberal media conspiracy to skew the polls

 

[dylans]

What form would this violence take? A general upsurge in racial tensions? Terrorist attacks?

Another point is that the Republicans may take the Senate soon. giving them the power to hobble Obama, and also causing a swing in power within the republicans, from the discredited presidential candidates, to the party's elected representatives. So this may limit the extent to which they implode.

I'm thinking an upsurge in domestic terrorist violence. Assassination attempts etc. The kind of thing that tiny groups or individuals can carry out.

 

[Random]

I'm thinking an upsurge in domestic terrorist violence. Assassination attempts etc. The kind of thing that tiny groups or individuals can carry out.

There's probably some indicators we can already track. Things like recruitment to existing far-right groups. I also agree that there may be violence, and the right wing politicians may seek to profit from it, by blaming BHO and the Dems for causing social unrest.

 

[butchersapron]

I'm thinking an upsurge in domestic terrorist violence. Assassination attempts etc. The kind of thing that tiny groups or individuals can carry out.

Like what it was claimed would take place if lord Obama won last time (cue list off individual rubbish not social violence).

 

[butchersapron]

There's probably some indicators we can already track. Things like recruitment to existing far-right groups. I also agree that there may be violence, and the right wing politicians may seek to profit from it, by blaming BHO and the Dems for causing social unrest.

What social violence do you forsee?