Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-25

[The39thStep]

The UK, US etc governments were palling up with the Russian elite for years. Johnson himself has been a massive hypocrite on that front.
If they reckon sanctions work then they should've implemented them years ago. But self-interest and greed got in the way as always.

Dont forget Blair, his support for the Chechen war and BP's oil dealings which led Putin to describe BP as a 'reliable strategic partner'

 

[TopCat]

That shows a good spirit

I did look and it really is a bad tempered thread. Loads of uses of the term cunt including by myself, more than I would like anyway. Some surprises in there too.

 

[TopCat]

Perhaps we could consider limiting the personal attacks on posters and focus on the war for a bit.

 

[Pickman's model]

Perhaps we could consider limiting the personal attacks on posters and focus on the war for a bit.

I reckon if you removed posts containing personal abuse from the thread it'd be about 330 pages shorter

 

[agricola]

The UK, US etc governments were palling up with the Russian elite for years. Johnson himself has been a massive hypocrite on that front.
If they reckon sanctions work then they should've implemented them years ago. But self-interest and greed got in the way as always.

TBF sanctions have often been a way a country can appear to have done something, without putting in the effort of actually doing it. They are basically one step up from a government announcing something.

 

[TopCat]

I reckon if you removed posts containing personal abuse from the thread it'd be about 330 pages shorter

It did look a lot like that on a quick skim.

 

[TopCat]

TBF sanctions have often been a way a country can appear to have done something, without putting in the effort of actually doing it. They are basically one step up from a government announcing something.

The unintended consequences this time though seem to have hit a lot of people around the world whilst Russia seems ok and the US is making money off of it with LPG and arms sales etc.

 

[UnderOpenSky]

who reckons the sanctions are working?

Probably hitting the poorest hardest and barely touching the elites. Same as always.

 

[Yossarian]

My cunt count on this thread, not including posts with the word cunt that I quoted, comes to two posts calling Vladimir Putin a cunt, one post referring to the Russian military as cunts, one post calling neo-Nazi Ukrainians cunts, and one post calling corrupt Ukrainian officials cunts - I stand by all of them and will try to call Putin a cunt more often.

 

[xenon]

Perhaps we could consider limiting the personal attacks on posters and focus on the war for a bit.

 

[existentialist]

Perhaps we could consider limiting the personal attacks on posters and focus on the war for a bit.

OK. You start. I'll be here, not holding my breath.

 

[sleaterkinney]

There's clearly an established narrative from a number of credible sources that say that a series of negotiations led to the point where the principles of a peace deal were shared with allies of Ukraine who were approached to act as security guarantors.

When I say ' the suggestion is' it's because we don't have the minutes or a document or an overall signed record that says this is what happened.

If you don't think that the above account is plausible then say why.

It's not an established narrative at all, it’s sketchy outlines of a possible deal with a party who is untrustworthy, topped off with a suggestion that only seems to come from yourself. It's for you to prove it, not wibble on about not having the minutes.

What is implausible is that Putin was willing to give up all his advances so easily, he could even do that now, but he doesn’t.

 

[Artaxerxes]

He was pointing out the flaws in a comment that you had made in a public forum. Regardless of its merit his reply wasn't primarily for your edification. If that had been his intent, he would have sent you a direct message.

I was actually thinking of articles of this kind about the army from back in 21 and 23 and nothing in his reply contradicts my statement that Ukraine has changed since 2014.

Ukraine’s Military Has Come a Long Way Since 2014

But so have Russia’s armed forces—making any conflict more of a toss-up than a walkover.

foreignpolicy.com

Ukraine’s Military Transformation between 2014 and 2022 - Politics Today

The fierce resistance shown by Ukraine against Russia and the failure of the latter to achieve a quick and decisive victory has surprised many observers.

politicstoday.org

I also added that there was still plenty of corruption left to root out.

That it’s reached parity with its 2004 position after a revolution and in the middle of a war is actually decent going as corruption is harder to root out (e.g the UK and it’s current ruling party incapable of turning down the money) than it is to get going.

 

[nogojones]

fair enough. and in the spirit of not complaining i will advise people NOT to search the thread for the word cunt and look through the eighteen pages of results to see if anyone else got a warning.

19 pages

 

[The39thStep]

It's not an established narrative at all, it’s sketchy outlines of a possible deal with a party who is untrustworthy, topped off with a suggestion that only seems to come from yourself. It's for you to prove it, not wibble on about not having the minutes.

What is implausible is that Putin was willing to give up all his advances so easily, he could even do that now, but he doesn’t.

I don't think you've got a great hand here to be honest. The narrative isn't mine, I haven't invented it and it's supported , amongst others, by people and outlets such as Fiona Hill Former U.S. national security official to both Democrats and Republicans, Responsible Statecraft and Ukrainska Pravda as well as Gerhard Schroeder , who was involved in the negotiations and Turkish officials.

Lots of news outlets reported on the talks at the time with a similar line. The Washington Post for example reported that Ukrainian negotiators had put forward a proposal exchanging military neutrality for security guarantees.

Whether or not Putin was willing to give up his advances so easily is a reasonable debating point. However, others on here have said that his advance had stalled and was in danger of being isolated with the potential of heavy losses. Other commentators have argued that the US and other Ukraine allies' assessment was that the Russians weren't as strong as initially thought and with more arms support, training etc that Ukraine and NATO could exhaust them. Defanging was the word used on here, Johnson used the term 'to press' them.

Ukrainska Pravda was more explicit in describing the two factors that ended the negotiations. It firstly says that Bucha , civilian shelling and other atrocities was one factor . However, it also said the other factor was

"UK Prime Minister Boris johnson appeared in Kyiv almost without warning.

"Johnson brought two simple messages to Kyiv. The first is that Putin is a war criminal; he should be pressured, not negotiated with. And the second is that even if Ukraine is ready to sign some agreements on guarantees with Putin, they are not. We can sign [an agreement] with you [Ukraine], but not with him. Anyway, he will screw everyone over", is how one of Zelenskyy's close associates summed up the essence of Johnson's visit

Johnson’s position was that the collective West, which back in February had suggested Zelenskyy should surrender and flee, now felt that Putin was not really as powerful as they had previously imagined.

Moreover, there is a chance to "press" him. And the West wants to use it.

Three days after Johnson, now the happy owner of a Vasyikiv rooster, flew back to foggy Albion, Putin went public and said talks with Ukraine "had reached a dead end".

So that's the narrative. Its not based on what the Russian's have said and the sources are mainstream, West supporting. If you don't believe it or don't want to believe it, that's fine, I'm not going to convince you and it won't spoil our relationship.

Personally, I just hope the war ends soon.

 

[TopCat]

Nato is growing reckless over Ukraine – and Russia’s German military leak proves it | Simon Jenkins

An intercepted meeting on sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine suggests the west is on the brink of a risky and futile escalation, says Guardian columnist Simon Jenkins

www.theguardian.com

 

[Pickman's model]

Nato is growing reckless over Ukraine – and Russia’s German military leak proves it | Simon Jenkins

An intercepted meeting on sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine suggests the west is on the brink of a risky and futile escalation, says Guardian columnist Simon Jenkins

www.theguardian.com

Unusual to see Jenkins make a good case

 

[kebabking]

Unusual to see Jenkins make a good case

Usual to see Jenkins make a bad one.

 

[Pickman's model]

I was actually thinking of articles of this kind about the army from back in 21 and 23 and nothing in his reply contradicts my statement that Ukraine has changed since 2014

We can all agree Ukraine has changed in the past 10 years. But that's really fucking anodyne and the paucity of your position is summed up in the fact you think you're saying something worth saying.

 

[sleaterkinney]

I don't think you've got a great hand here to be honest. The narrative isn't mine, I haven't invented it and it's supported , amongst others, by people and outlets such as Fiona Hill Former U.S. national security official to both Democrats and Republicans, Responsible Statecraft and Ukrainska Pravda as well as Gerhard Schroeder , who was involved in the negotiations and Turkish officials.

Lots of news outlets reported on the talks at the time with a similar line. The Washington Post for example reported that Ukrainian negotiators had put forward a proposal exchanging military neutrality for security guarantees.

Whether or not Putin was willing to give up his advances so easily is a reasonable debating point. However, others on here have said that his advance had stalled and was in danger of being isolated with the potential of heavy losses. Other commentators have argued that the US and other Ukraine allies' assessment was that the Russians weren't as strong as initially thought and with more arms support, training etc that Ukraine and NATO could exhaust them. Defanging was the word used on here, Johnson used the term 'to press' them.

Ukrainska Pravda was more explicit in describing the two factors that ended the negotiations. It firstly says that Bucha , civilian shelling and other atrocities was one factor . However, it also said the other factor was



So that's the narrative. Its not based on what the Russian's have said and the sources are mainstream, West supporting. If you don't believe it or don't want to believe it, that's fine, I'm not going to convince you and it won't spoil our relationship.

Personally, I just hope the war ends soon.

It's not convincing and it just seems like a continuation of the narrative that the west is to blame for this.
Russian money has long infiltrated the media and politicians in the west - you even put forward Gerhard Schroeder as an example..

I don't consider Putin and his gangster mates to be a good thing, especially for the people they rule over. He needs to be opposed. He didn't stop at the Donbas or Crimea.

 

[TopCat]

Russia-Ukraine war live: Ukrainian military intelligence says its forces have destroyed Russian ship

Russian military patrol boat destroyed on the Black Sea after overnight attack by maritime drones, says spokesperson

www.theguardian.com

 

[TopCat]

Pics of a big rally in Kiev in the above. Lots of Azov supporters.

 

[TopCat]

It's not convincing and it just seems like a continuation of the narrative that the west is to blame for this.
Russian money has long infiltrated the media and politicians in the west - you even put forward Gerhard Schroeder as an example..

I don't consider Putin and his gangster mates to be a good thing, especially for the people they rule over. He needs to be opposed. He didn't stop at the Donbas or Crimea.

I get the impression that in the event of a pre plan by the west being leaked, you would deny it as it doesn’t support your side.

 

[Pickman's model]

It's not convincing and it just seems like a continuation of the narrative that the west is to blame for this.
Russian money has long infiltrated the media and politicians in the west - you even put forward Gerhard Schroeder as an example..

I don't consider Putin and his gangster mates to be a good thing, especially for the people they rule over. He needs to be opposed. He didn't stop at the Donbas or Crimea.

How should he be opposed?

 

[The39thStep]

It's not convincing and it just seems like a continuation of the narrative that the west is to blame for this.
Russian money has long infiltrated the media and politicians in the west - you even put forward Gerhard Schroeder as an example..

I don't consider Putin and his gangster mates to be a good thing, especially for the people they rule over. He needs to be opposed. He didn't stop at the Donbas or Crimea.

Fine. I don't know anyone on here or in real life who advocates Putin and his gangsters as a good thing. It was of course the West who welcomed Russia opening its economy up to private and international capital and welcomed the newly minted Russian oligarchs to invest in the West. A quid pro pro between the super rich before the resumption of rivalries.

I don't know who invited Schroader, or the ex-Istaeli PM obviously the Turks hosted some of the discussions but I think you are very wide off the mark if you think that Fiona Hill has somehow been compromised , she's a hawk although a hawk with some nous . The notion that the Washington Post and Responsible Statecraft have been bought or influenced by Putin would only be a view shared by the worst neo liberal hawks in the States and if Ukrainska Pravda has been infiltrated then really Ukraine should shut them down. Funnily enough, sometimes the media in Ukraine express opinions that some posters would frown upon here.

 

[The39thStep]

Pics of a big rally in Kiev in the above. Lots of Azov supporters.

There have been quite a few articles over the last few weeks describing the 3rd Assault Unit as crack troops etc , which they may or may not be, without actually mentioning that they are Azov

 

[sleaterkinney]

Fine. I don't know anyone on here or in real life who advocates Putin and his gangsters as a good thing. It was of course the West who welcomed Russia opening its economy up to private and international capital and welcomed the newly minted Russian oligarchs to invest in the West. A quid pro pro between the super rich before the resumption of rivalries.

So you do think his annexation of Ukraine should be opposed then?

 

[ska invita]

So you do think his annexation of Ukraine should be opposed then?

opposed how? when? when do we get to be in charge of NATO? today? yesterday? twenty years ago? what other powers do we get? economic policy? foreign affairs?

 

[ska invita]

.

 

[Pickman's model]

.

Good point well made