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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-25

Pickman's model said:
Yeh raising the matter in the un has worked really well over the past ten years. I can't think of an occasion over the past 110 years when a guarantee has preserved a country from attack - didn't work so well for Belgium or Poland, certainly. Can you name a time a guarantee by powers has worked?
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So you do, at least, accept that the only promises given were to not invade, and to bring up the matter at the UN if there was a problem?

That there was never, despite your insinuations, any promise given to Ukraine that it would be supported or defended by the other signatories?

If you want evidence of guarantees working, I mean you could go to Estonia, or Poland, or Finland, or Lithuania,or Latvia, and look for the Russian Army....
 
kebabking said:
So you do, at least, accept that the only promises given were to not invade, and to bring up the matter at the UN if there was a problem?

That there was never, despite your insinuations, any promise given to Ukraine that it would be supported or defended by the other signatories?

If you want evidence of guarantees working, I mean you could go to Estonia, or Poland, or Finland, or Lithuania,or Latvia, and look for the Russian Army....
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Yeh the guarantees are working so well that the Baltics are saying they're next if Russia wins in Ukraine. They're really confident in Riga, Vilnius and tallinn. If it was going so well planning for a resistance movement, effectively what the tartu conference,whose papers I've linked to before, would never have been held
 
This is a fascinating article on organised crime trends in Ukraine since the invasion

ppr.lse.ac.uk

New Dynamics, New Opportunities: Trends in Organised Crime in Ukraine After Russia’s Invasion

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 reshaped the way organised crime operated within Ukraine and how it interacted with criminal interests in other countries, disrupting some forms of illicit business and generating new opportunities. This chapter will explore three key...
ppr.lse.ac.uk ppr.lse.ac.uk
 
Recent survey comparing US and Euro views re Russian invasion. Usual issues re surveys apply ie ask the right question to get the right answer/sample size and also the three countries in Europe that are polled are Western not those next to Russia.

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Ukraine has damaged an SU-75. If they can't repair it - and they probably can't - it's the first ever 5th gen fighter destroyed in combat


Doesn't mean much for the war, as Russia is apparently worried about losing them and the tech getting into the hands of Ukraine/NATO, so they haven't been involved in the invasion.

Destroying one on the ground doesn't damage its reputation either, but it shows how little air defense Russia has if it can't protect it's most expensive, secretive assets.
 
Just for Zelensky's armchair psychologists.....



I remember listening to a fairly long interview (his English is pretty decent), maybe in the early spring of 2021.



I remember thinking that if someone came up to me in the street/at the pub I'd try to steer the conversation to “is there a friend/family we can talk to now” or even “let's take a cab to a+e” .....



A mixture of non-sequiter jokes, speech under pressure of stress, mid-sentences, trying not to let childish laughter escape and extreme fatiuge.

but these things are relative, I reckon pretty congruent for his situation.

Point being he«s been at his wits' end for a while, understanadably..
 
Fez909 said:
Ukraine has damaged an SU-75. If they can't repair it - and they probably can't - it's the first ever 5th gen fighter destroyed in combat


Doesn't mean much for the war, as Russia is apparently worried about losing them and the tech getting into the hands of Ukraine/NATO, so they haven't been involved in the invasion.

Destroying one on the ground doesn't damage its reputation either, but it shows how little air defense Russia has if it can't protect it's most expensive, secretive assets.
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the su-75 is anticipated to enter service in 2027
 
Superdupastupor said:
Just for Zelensky's armchair psychologists.....



I remember listening to a fairly long interview (his English is pretty decent), maybe in the early spring of 2021.



I remember thinking that if someone came up to me in the street/at the pub I'd try to steer the conversation to “is there a friend/family we can talk to now” or even “let's take a cab to a+e” .....



A mixture of non-sequiter jokes, speech under pressure of stress, mid-sentences, trying not to let childish laughter escape and extreme fatiuge.

but these things are relative, I reckon pretty congruent for his situation.

Point being he«s been at his wits' end for a while, understanadably..
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It was reported he spends much of his time in underground bunkers. Can’t help the mood or sense of connection with the people.
 
TopCat said:
www.theguardian.com

‘It’s emotionally very difficult’: mobilisation squads face hostility as Ukraine tries to boost army ranks

Insults and arguments show the social divisions opened up by recruitment drive and years of war
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

“All the brave people have already signed up”

Begs the question of how the armed forces will cope with a large influx of reluctant conscripts. How effective will they be?
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Well, they’ll be up against prisoners and mercenaries from Africa.
 
  • The US has lifted a ban on providing weapons and training to Ukraine’s Azov Brigade, which had far-right roots but proved key to the defence of the major port city of Mariupol. Azov was absorbed into Ukraine’s national guard as the 12th Special Forces Brigade and current members reject accusations of extremism and ties with far-right movements. The Russian government has seized on Azov’s origins in its efforts to cast Russia’s invasion as a battle against Nazi influence, though Vladimir Putin’s regime has not substantiated such claims.
  • US law prohibits providing equipment and training to foreign military units or individuals suspected of committing gross human rights violations. The state department said on Tuesday that it found “no evidence” of such violations by Azov. “This is a new page in our unit’s history,” the Azov Brigade said in a statement. “Obtaining western weapons and training from the United States will not only increase the combat ability of Azov, but most importantly, contribute to the preservation of the lives and the health of personnel.”
 
Bahnhof Strasse said:
Why the fuck should I?

This is an ongoing situation, that you choose to try and deflect from that, belittling these poor dupes speaks volumes about you.
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Or it would do if I was actually belittling them. I've said we've been told this at least twice before, the first time I can see on 7 March. If anyone is being belittled here it's you. You could have posted this development, for example, War in Ukraine: Two Indian nationals recruited by Russia killed, a bbc story from 8 hours ago stating Delhi wants its men back. As you say it's an ongoing situation so why not deal in current events?
 
The39thStep said:
Using obtained payment docs, Mediazona/BBC calculated that Wagner lost 19,547 men fighting for Bakhmut , 17,175 of whom were convicts out of the 48,366 Wagner recruited from RU prisons.


View attachment 428441

bbcrussian.substack.com

‘Immoral but effective.’ How the ‘Wagner’ private military company lost 17,000 prisoners in the assault on Bakhmut

BBC Russian continues its investigation into the Kremlin’s war dead in Ukraine.
bbcrussian.substack.com bbcrussian.substack.com
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nato, the us and zelensky were all claiming over a thousand a day for january in bakhmut.
 
TopCat said:
  • The US has lifted a ban on providing weapons and training to Ukraine’s Azov Brigade, which had far-right roots but proved key to the defence of the major port city of Mariupol. Azov was absorbed into Ukraine’s national guard as the 12th Special Forces Brigade and current members reject accusations of extremism and ties with far-right movements. The Russian government has seized on Azov’s origins in its efforts to cast Russia’s invasion as a battle against Nazi influence, though Vladimir Putin’s regime has not substantiated such claims.
  • US law prohibits providing equipment and training to foreign military units or individuals suspected of committing gross human rights violations. The state department said on Tuesday that it found “no evidence” of such violations by Azov. “This is a new page in our unit’s history,” the Azov Brigade said in a statement. “Obtaining western weapons and training from the United States will not only increase the combat ability of Azov, but most importantly, contribute to the preservation of the lives and the health of personnel.”
Click to expand...
Azov now approaching Meloni territory as ‘our fascists ‘
 
Chz said:
If Russia does finally overrun the rest of Ukraine, they'll be in no shape to bother anyone more significant than Georgia for a good long time
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Not entirely convinced about that tbh, Russia's just spent the last three years rebuilding its economy around war production and now has a large veteran army as opposed to a large inept one. The temptation could easily be there to start another war to stave off economic problems.
 
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