Urban75 Home About Offline BrixtonBuzz Contact

Tory Leadership contest 2022

FFS, were you all pissed or high when you started on the Putin conspiracy theory shit last night?
because of course there is no way Johnson could have compromised himself at that villa without his security detail, but obvs nothing to do with Putin, just ordinary kompromat.

Btw, I am neither pissed nor high,
Sadly.
 
Where's the advantage in waiting? They can nominate Mourdant and vote for Sunak.
Because they don't want to risk one of their two preferred candidates not making it to the final two, so they're playing a game of chicken to see who else commits to Johnson.

Plus Sunak and Johnson haven't actually declared they're running yet, so presumably there's a lot of waiting and seeing over the weekend.
 
Because they don't want to risk one of their two preferred candidates not making it to the final two, so they're playing a game of chicken to see who else commits to Johnson.

Plus Sunak and Johnson haven't actually declared they're running yet, so presumably there's a lot of waiting and seeing over the weekend.
Sunak's backers claim he has the 100. Which seems likely or why announce it?

I suppose they could be waiting to see if Johnson makes it at all before piling on to Mourdant.
 
Sunak's backers claim he has the 100. Which seems likely or why announce it?

I suppose they could be waiting to see if Johnson makes it at all before piling on to Mourdant.

Trying to work out whether a deal between the two is possible.
 
Given that every change for the last few years has been for the worse I think 'back where we started' is going to be enormously attractive to a lot of people.
 
Or, put another way, Johnson is trying to work out whether he can persuade Sunak to withdraw, and Sunak is trying to work out whether he can be persuaded.
 
Given that every change for the last few years has been for the worse I think 'back where we started' is going to be enormously attractive to a lot of people.

No, but Tories will be Tories.

<I read that wrong>
 
When i'm nostalgic it is often for the 1960s and 70s, which was at least a period of some optimism. Sections of the vermin Party are so trapped by virulent short termism and greed that they long for a return to two or three months ago. When will we be rid of these shambolic and ineffective dangerous shits?
 


Ffq8y3MXgAcbpXq


Unsurprisingly, most of Truss's supporters from the last leadership contest backing Johnson over Sunak. Meanwhile, Sunak has lost 3 to Johnson, but Morduant has lost 6 to both Sunak and Johnson.

Which must be particularly galling as the only candidate who's currently gone as far at to actually announce they're in the running!
 
I'd imagine there's a fairly large group of MPs who are still arguing about whether they're running back to Boris or backing Mourdant. I note none of the Essex sex offender MPs have declared who they're nominating yet.

Plus what's the point of being the 101st vote for Sunak at this point, they're not obliged to nominate someone are they?
 
Plus what's the point of being the 101st vote for Sunak at this point, they're not obliged to nominate someone are they?
The higher his nomination number is the more pressure it puts on waverers to back him. His ideal is to be closing in on the 200 and making it difficult for the others to hit the threshold.
 
Plus what's the point of being the 101st vote for Sunak at this point, they're not obliged to nominate someone are they?
There are over 300 tory MPs. All three of them could get 100 nominations. The 111 dotted line is where he has to get to to be sure of being in the play-off final when they go to the members.
 
There are over 300 tory MPs. All three of them could get 100 nominations. The 111 dotted line is where he has to get to to be sure of being in the play-off final when they go to the members.
Sunak needs Mordor to stay in the game to reduce the chances of johnson getting 100 and it going to the members. No guarantees johnson wins with the members and it will be a mad scramble with plenty of IT fails if they have an online ballot, but he'll be favourite, My guess is Sunak ends up PM and Morodor has her choice of job after that weird sort of a deal in these circumstances - agreeing to stay in rather than the usual agreeing to stay out of the contest. He'll probably offer her a few of his billions and his unused Green Card as well.
 
The higher his nomination number is the more pressure it puts on waverers to back him. His ideal is to be closing in on the 200 and making it difficult for the others to hit the threshold.

This, really. If he gets more than half the Parliamentary Party it should (or at least would in any normal electorate) demonstrate to Johnson's camp that the coalition that removed him is still there, and to the membership that they are backing the wrong side again.

That said it isn't really about numbers overall so much as it is numbers of committed people. If Sunak wins by mere numbers (or if there is a coronation) the Johnson / Rees-Mogg faction are going to do what they did with May; ie: block everything they don't like and insist the reason the party is weak and not unified is because the other lot don't listen to them. If Johnson wins, the Sunak lot will be whittled down and gradually shown the door (a process they've been undertaking since he took over).

To win effectively, Sunak has to show that what they appear to have done with Truss will happen again; that a PM who doesn't command the true adherence of the parliamentary party upon which their majority depends is never going to be able to govern. Then when he has won, he then has to start removing the likes of Dorries, Rees-Mogg and ultimately Johnson out of the party.
 
Let’s look at this long term - having Johnson as a malevolent force on the sidelines will undermine whatever rictus grinning shitbag gets the job.
How much longer would Johnson stick around if he doesn't get PM again? Will he think there's another shot later down the line, or will he just pack it in and go have fun in the media and after-dinner circuit?
 
Back
Top Bottom