Tory Calls To Postpone 2015 General Election

[Pickman's model]

Keep up the good work in that tumbril-co-ordinating office then ...

But in the meantime, we're talking boring real-world election numbers.

it's ok, our top man millipede's on the task of making sure there are as few labour mps as possible while cameron's cokehead team of osborn is doing the same for the tories

 

[butchersapron]

Scotland's real shame: 11 lib-dem MPs.

 

[andysays]

Just take 40 off!

So this site predicts a Labour majority of 30

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON36.97%30731.82%258
LAB29.66%25834.31%340
LIB23.56%57 8.49%19
UKIP 3.17%015.89%0
NAT 2.26%9 2.95%14
MIN 4.37%19 6.54%19




If we remove 40 seats from Labour that gives them 300.

There are currently 59 Scottish MPs out of a total of 650, so if we remove all of them from Westminster after a notional independence, there will be a total of 591, meaning that Labour will still have an overall majority.

So this suggests that fears of an enivitable Labour majority based entirely on Scottish MPs who then cease to be MPs after a year causing a constitutional crisis of democracy are somewhat exaggerated.

I'm sure you're already familiar with the detail of most/all of this already, BA, but for those like me who are not, it does help to have it spelled out.

I agree that nothing needs to be postponed or rearranged - I simply said if it did, it won't/shouldn't be the GE.

ETA "doesn't" changed to "does" at self

 

[andysays]

i for one would prefer there to be no mps.

I don't think that's even an option in the Independence Ref

 

[Pickman's model]

I don't think that's even an option in the Independence Ref

referendum fail

 

[andysays]

referendum fail

Is it too late to ask the moderators to add that option?

 

[William of Walworth]

andysays -- not all polls show so decisive a Labour lead as that, though.

 

[andysays]

andysays -- not all polls show so decisive a Labour lead as that, though.

OK, I don't know if those figures are accurate/typical, that was merely the first poll which predicted seats I came across.

Depending on how things go, a Labour majority might depend on Scottish MPs, but it's not as certain as is widely thought.

 

[butchersapron]

andysays -- not all polls show so decisive a Labour lead as that, though.

Most show that as the base - and a higher majority is likely when marginals are figured in (which electoral calculus do try to be do to be fair) - apart from that odd oxbridge bloke. Electoral polling have 32 seat majority on +3 labour lead right now when the long term trend has been for a 5-6% lead.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

So this site predicts a Labour majority of 30

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON36.97%30731.82%258
LAB29.66%25834.31%340
LIB23.56%57 8.49%19
UKIP 3.17%015.89%0
NAT 2.26%9 2.95%14
MIN 4.37%19 6.54%19




If we remove 40 seats from Labour that gives them 300.

There are currently 59 Scottish MPs out of a total of 650, so if we remove all of them from Westminster after a notional independence, there will be a total of 591, meaning that Labour will still have an overall majority.

So this suggests that fears of an enivitable Labour majority based entirely on Scottish MPs who then cease to be MPs after a year causing a constitutional crisis of democracy are somewhat exaggerated.

I'm sure you're already familiar with the detail of most/all of this already, BA, but for those like me who are not, it does help to have it spelled out.

I agree that nothing needs to be postponed or rearranged - I simply said if it did, it won't/shouldn't be the GE.

ETA "doesn't" changed to "does" at self

I don't think such a change would cause a constitutional crisis anyway. If Labour win a narrow majority that disappears with Scotland a year in, there are still constitutional mechanisms in place for a new general election to be held.

 

[8ball]

Most show that as the base - and a higher majority is likely when marginals are figured in (which electoral calculus do try to be do to be fair) - apart from that odd oxbridge bloke. Electoral polling have 32 seat majority on +3 labour lead right now when the long term trend has been for a 5-6% lead.

Are you breaking into scat singing?

 

[butchersapron]

Are you breaking into scat singing?

When the mood takes you be do you gotta go with it

 

[Libertad]

When the mood takes you be do you gotta go with it

It don't mean a thing if it aint got that electoral swing.

 

[butchersapron]

It don't mean a thing if it aint got that electoral swing.

Friday, best day of the week

 

[Sasaferrato]

Hmmm. The Conservative and Unionist Party to give it its traditional full name. In many ways it is extraordinary that Cameron has chosen to stay out of this debate - a yes vote could see the tories thrown out for quite a while.

It's not extraordinary at all. Common sense has prevailed and kept him away. He would be a liability to the 'NO' cause.

 

[William of Walworth]

Even absent, Eton boy is still a liability --I wouldn't be at all surprised to find, post referendum, plenty of No people (Labour types and others) saying their main obstacle was TORIES in general and Cameron/Osborne in particular. Seems like there's plenty of Labour and leftier people, both activists and general voters, who've moved over to YES anyway.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

It's not extraordinary at all. Common sense has prevailed and kept him away. He would be a liability to the 'NO' cause.

I'm not sure that's true. But whatever his value to the NO cause, it surely has immense value to him. He's fucked if the vote is yes. I can only assume that he assumed it would be no. But if it is 'yes', and he is seen to have done nothing to try to stop it, he's royally fucked.

 

[Sasaferrato]

I'm not sure that's true. But whatever his value to the NO cause, it surely has immense value to him. He's fucked if the vote is yes. I can only assume that he assumed it would be no. But if it is 'yes', and he is seen to have done nothing to try to stop it, he's royally fucked.

He is fucked anyway.