Toriers & Lib Dems, deal by Monday morning?

[free spirit]

They wont be finished before the 21st, I have placed a bet!

losing bet IMO.

a decent lib/lab deal would almost certainly get 75% support of the lib dem parliamentary party, so no need to go back to the wider membership.

I'm not sure about the labour party... anyone?

 

[claphamboy]

no, he's referring to labours offer of AV without a referendum.

tbh, I don't really see the problem with changing to AV without a referendum, because it's basically just a bit of tinkering with the current system. The constituencies would remain the same, everyone would still have a constituency MP, it's still one MP per constituency, and effectively a majority of people have voted for parties advocating some form of electoral reform anyway.

labour are then offering a referendum on STV on top of a guaranteed change to AV as far as I understand it.

You don't? Despite Labour's promise of a referendum?

Not sure if they would get their MPs to agree on that.

 

[weltweit]

But it doesn't matter what they come up with, it's all going to shit anyway

Well it better had not.

With the debt level the way it is, and 2.5 million unemployed we need a government that can deliver.

 

[free spirit]

Where have they said this? I haven't seen anything like AV plus a referendum on further 'electoral reform' being offered anywhere.

BBC news, have been saying it all evening.

 

[FridgeMagnet]

Well it better had not.

With the debt level the way it is, and 2.5 million unemployed we need a government that can deliver.

They'll all deliver. That is the issue.

 

[free spirit]

You don't? Despite Labour's promise of a referendum?

Not sure if they would get their MPs to agree on that.

Personally I see AV as being such a minor tweak of the system that I don't see it needing a referendum.

if we're going to go through all the hastle of a referendum I want it to be on STV, otherwise it'll be another generation before we get chance to try again.

 

[1%er]

So they do a deal now, Brown stands down in October what if the new Leader of the Labour party doesn't agree whit this deal? Labour leadership favourite, David Milliband, isn't even on the Labour neogtiating team

 

[elbows]

Where have they said this? I haven't seen anything like AV plus a referendum on further 'electoral reform' being offered anywhere.

BBC 10 oclock news described it as 'AV and a referendum on full proportional representation'

 

[weltweit]

So they do a deal now, Brown stands down in October what if the new Leader of the Labour party doesn't agree whit this deal? Labour leadership favourite, David Milliband, isn't even on the Labour neogtiating team

Milliband .... noooo .... but he is just a boy!

 

[elbows]

So they do a deal now, Brown stands down in October what if the new Leader of the Labour party doesn't agree whit this deal?

Brown made it sound today like he will stick around to make sure all the stuff agreed upon is set well in motion before he goes.

Even if it can be reversed, the next Labour leader would either go a long with what had already been agreed or else they would likely end up as leader of the party but not the country because the coalition would collapse.

 

[claphamboy]

Personally I see AV as being such a minor tweak of the system that I don't see it needing a referendum.

It's not about you or me, my point is can they get enough Labour MPs to force a change to AV, when so many are against change, without the promised referendum?

 

[free spirit]

Milliband .... noooo .... but he is just a boy!

a boy who leads an amazing double life?

 

[free spirit]

It's not about you or me, my point is can they get enough Labour MPs to force a change to AV, when so many are against change, without the promised referendum?

fuck knows, they made the offer though.

I don't really give a fuck about AV, it's a marginal improvement I suppose. The important bit is what they're offering beyond that in a referendum IMO.

 

[elbows]

They wont be finished before the 21st, I have placed a bet!

I dont think they have anything like that long before the markets start to get impatient and cause the word 'crisis' to pour from the mouths of people on tv.

 

[elbows]

From BBC election updates page:

2221: Conservative Home editor Tim Montgomerie tweets: Tebbit at Freedom Association Dinner: Will Cameron match Brown's promise to resign after matching his promise of a referendum on PR?

lol.

 

[free spirit]

From BBC election updates page:



lol.

 

[Stoat Boy]

It's not about you or me, my point is can they get enough Labour MPs to force a change to AV, when so many are against change, without the promised referendum?

Which makes me wonder if they are already banking on that. The Lib Dems will be deemed toxic by the Conservatives and will know that if they cause the coalition to collapse then its electoral sucide for them. So they will just play along and swallow Labour going back on their deal.

 

[claphamboy]

fuck knows, they made the offer though.

I don't really give a fuck about AV, it's a marginal improvement I suppose. The important bit is what they're offering beyond that in a referendum IMO.

If they go for a referendum on PR, rather than AV, I reckon you can bet your bottom dollar that Labour with join with the Tories in campaigning against.

 

[weltweit]

I dont think they have anything like that long before the markets start to get impatient and cause the word 'crisis' to pour from the mouths of people on tv.

As far as I am aware coalitions on the continent often take weeks to come to agreement. 30-40 days are not unusual and in one case they took 100 days.

 

[Balbi]

From BBC election updates page:

2221: Conservative Home editor Tim Montgomerie tweets: Tebbit at Freedom Association Dinner: Will Cameron match Brown's promise to resign after matching his promise of a referendum on PR?

lol.

Tebbit's been at his curmudgeon/hilarious best in the last few weeks.

 

[cesare]

Bugger - phone is fucked. in short, I disagree.

Depends what you mean by template. Do you mean strategy? Cos there are broadly three rather than two types there: (1) competitive/positional; (2) co-operative/collaborative; and (3) principled/problem solving.

 

[elbows]

As far as I am aware coalitions on the continent often take weeks to come to agreement. 30-40 days are not unusual and in one case they took 100 days.

Yeah but the markets wont be judging it on how it goes in other countries, but rather based on how these things tend to work, or fail, in the UK.

Dont want to give the markets too much credit for dictating the pace or being rational, and claims that we only had till Monday morning to reach a deal were clearly not true, but I still doubt we have till May 21. Given the pace of developments this afternoon & evening, I think it will be over sooner rather than later.

 

[free spirit]

If they go for a referendum on PR, rather than AV, I reckon you can bet your bottom dollar that Labour with join with the Tories in campaigning against.

potentially better than having FPTP, AV and STV on the ballot, with labour campaigning for AV, lib dems for STV and tories for FPTP, potentially splitting the PR vote / confusing people.

In a fptp vs stv referendum, I'd expect a much higher turnout from those wanting PR than from those wanting the status quo, as it's something minority parties have been banging on about for decades.

it's not like it's just the lib dems wanting it either.

 

[elbows]

Well any referendum campaign will likely get very dirty with big dollops of fear. And whats happened with these elections & the subsequent dealmaking may also influence the publics appetite for electoral reform, one way or another.

 

[ericjarvis]

All I can think, and its me clutching at some desperate straws I concede, that the people at the top of Labour have some stuff they desperately want to keep out of the Tories hands.

Yes. The entire bloody country.

 

[Diamond]

Depends what you mean by template. Do you mean strategy? Cos there are broadly three rather than two types there: (1) competitive/positional; (2) co-operative/collaborative; and (3) principled/problem solving.

By template, I meant the documents that they are actually working on which presumably will have been drafted by the Mandarins beforehand.

As for the strategy it will be some combination of the above, more likely (2) and (3) with the Mandarins pushing hard through the structure of the negotiations for (2) on both sides.

See my earlier post for how I envisage it.

 

[claphamboy]

potentially better than having FPTP, AV and STV on the ballot, with labour campaigning for AV, lib dems for STV and tories for FPTP, potentially splitting the PR vote / confusing people.

In a fptp vs stv referendum, I'd expect a much higher turnout from those wanting PR than from those wanting the status quo, as it's something minority parties have been banging on about for decades.

it's not like it's just the lib dems wanting it either.

I doubt the LibDems would ever agree to a 3-way referendum, that's the road to madness.

I also doubt Labour would go with a FPTP / STV referendum.

It would be a choice between AV or STV imo.

 

[1%er]

Yeah but the markets wont be judging it on how it goes in other countries, but rather based on how these things tend to work, or fail, in the UK.

Dont want to give the markets too much credit for dictating the pace or being rational, and claims that we only had till Monday morning to reach a deal were clearly not true, but I still doubt we have till May 21. Given the pace of developments this afternoon & evening, I think it will be over sooner rather than later.

All the commentates I've seem have all agreed that the UK is very lucky that today the EU agreed on a financial plan to support all Euro country's, that is why the markets went up.

The £ is lower against a host of its major trading partners.

 

[elbows]

Wibble, on Newsnight they are saying that in order to keep the right of the Tory party from going insane, Cameron has had to offer more cabinet posts to right-wingers such as David Davis and Michael Howard.

 

[Belushi]

why the fuck is Harman dressed as a Giraffe on Newsnight?