The Trump presidency

[CrabbedOne]

On War On The Rocks THE STRUGGLE FOR THE SOUL OF AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY HAS BEGUN

...
The bad news — and it is awful — is thus that we now have a president whose foreign policy agenda essentially amounts to burning the U.S.-led international order to the ground and hope that America can collect the lion’s share of the ashes. The good news, such as it is, is that in unveiling this agenda so brazenly and early, Trump has also fully dispelled any illusions about his presidency and the dangers it poses.

It is clear, for instance, that the normal rules of presidential moderation once in office will not apply here. Trump will try to govern in the same incendiary and dishonest manner that defined his campaign. It is clear that his more sober and honorable advisers are so far losing the battle for influence within the administration. There were no traces of Secretary of Defense James Mattis in the inaugural, but Steve Bannon had his xenophobic fingerprints all over it. And most of all, it is clear that there is no deeper or more complex version of Trump. There is just a man who appears actually to believe that the discredited nostrums and shibboleths of the 1930s can be resurrected without inviting disaster today. Trump is still Trump — a man every bit as noxious and corrosive to international security and prosperity as the Never Trumpers warned us nearly a year ago.
...

President Trump is a series of wars waiting to happen.

 

[Pickman's model]

Isn't that pretty contrived even fake? Trump was referring to how he would have done it, had he been in charge during the invasion of Iraq.
So some hacks gone to the middle of no where and said he wants to take your oil to some blokes in a trench, what do think about that?

tbh i wouldn't be surprised if that's what trump wants.

in his head: 'we spent trillions - TRILLIONS! - on war in iraq but they've still got the oil. THEY'VE STILL GOT THE OIL'

 

[Pickman's model]

On War On The Rocks THE STRUGGLE FOR THE SOUL OF AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY HAS BEGUN
President Trump is a series of wars waiting to happen.

yeh and in the wrong fucking order

 

[Lord Camomile]

Early days!

I actually looked into that when he said it He has been on the cover quite a lot recently, rather predictably I guess. Also, I'm pretty sure I counted more than 10 times Could be wrong on that though.

I do think there's got to be a point, quite soon, where we stop picking up this small fry stuff. Like, yeah, he bullshits, but behind that there's going to be a lot of other stuff that needs focusing on. I kinda feel like some should distract him with petty shit like this while others lay into the more meaty stuff.

Bagsy I take on the small fry bullshit!

 

[Pickman's model]

I actually looked into that when he said it He has been on the cover quite a lot recently, rather predictably I guess. Also, I'm pretty sure I counted more than 10 times Could be wrong on that though.

I do think there's got to be a point, quite soon, where we stop picking up this small fry stuff. Like, yeah, he bullshits, but behind that there's going to be a lot of other stuff that needs focusing on. I kinda feel like some should distract him with petty shit like this while others lay into the more meaty stuff.

Bagsy I take on the small fry bullshit!

 

[Mr.Bishie]

lol CR will be along in a mo to tell us how offended he is

 

[2hats]

View attachment 99246

True to his name, he always follows through on his actions.

 

[Tankus]

Surprise .....Hes never going to release his tax returns.....

Didn't see that one coming

 

[CrabbedOne]

Isn't that pretty contrived even fake? Trump was referring to how he would have done it, had he been in charge during the invasion of Iraq.
So some hacks gone to the middle of no where and said he wants to take your oil to some blokes in a trench, what do think about that?

I love the preemptive assumption of fake news, so obediently Trump trained already.

Full text: Trump, Pence remarks at CIA Headquarters

...
When I was young -- and I think we're all sort of young. When I was young, we were always winning things in this country. We'd win with trade. We'd win with wars. At a certain age, I remember hearing from one of my instructors, "The United States has never lost a war." And then, after that, it's like we haven’t won anything. We don’t win anymore. The old expression, "to the victor belong the spoils" -- you remember. I always used to say, keep the oil. I wasn’t a fan of Iraq. I didn’t want to go into Iraq. But I will tell you, when we were in, we got out wrong. And I always said, in addition to that, keep the oil. Now, I said it for economic reasons. But if you think about it, Mike, if we kept the oil you probably wouldn’t have ISIS because that's where they made their money in the first place. So we should have kept the oil. But okay. (Laughter.) Maybe you'll have another chance. But the fact is, should have kept the oil.
...

My bold, no pause for laughs at the end there, not many laughs at all.

Is he talking in general or specifically? The broad implication is there is no victory without spoils for Trump. More subtly Trump thinks depriving IS of oil revenues would eradicate it as he promises too. IS finally necessitates the appropriation the prophet Trump wisely saw as an extractive economic opportunity earlier. The US security establishment, part of which he is addressing, was/is too stupid to see this. He's wrong of course, IS revenues aren't mainly from Iraqi oil, but from taxation. At the very least its an example of very poor and confused messaging.

The IRGC will regurgitate that on their social media in Arabic. They don't even have to frig with it. That'll filter through to their 60K+ guys on the ground if they aren't already cursing the Ali Baba Trump on Youtube. These guys in any case are convinced the US backs IS and came to steal their oil. Most Iraqis are unfortunately. They don't need the Iranians to tell them. It's just confirmation when Trump jokes about having a second crack at it. US troop numbers have been escalating in Iraq recently. That's a sensitive topic in Baghdad politics. Threats against them by Shia militia leaders are common. If some IRGC asset sticks an EFP on US SF Humvee up Mosul way as a hands off message to the freshly incarnated orange Great Satan it really won't seem so funny.

 

[Idris2002]

Surprise .....Hes never going to release his tax returns.....

Didn't see that one coming

Shocked, gambling, etc.

 

[camouflage]

On War On The Rocks THE STRUGGLE FOR THE SOUL OF AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY HAS BEGUN
President Trump is a series of wars waiting to happen.

lol, I guess this makes Obama and the no-longer-relevant Clinton the responsible peacemakers.

If only Trump the Barbarian hadn't dragged us all into Cold War 2.

 

[Wilf]

View attachment 99246

Isn't that FAKE?

 

[Wilf]

There's every chance trump will drag the world into some mad war or something unpredictably catastrophic. But the real killer will be day to day stories of deregulation, grinding poverty and police murders... along with moments of opposition that promise much but never really get anywhere.

If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face, forever

Anyway, must be away, I've got my Positive Thinking Class in 5 minutes.

 

[teqniq]

 

[camouflage]

How come people who usually speak English suddenly start speaking Dutch whenever I get like... really drunk.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Have we had this yet? Climate change policy deleted from White House website within minutes of swearing in.

The new website features, instead, a page dedicated to “An American First Energy Plan,” which details the new administration’s stance towards energy and (a lack of) climate policy. The plan tracks almost exactly with promises made by Trump during the campaign — to unleash more fossil fuel extraction, especially on federal lands, cancel Obama-era climate policies like the Climate Action Plan and the Waters of the United States rule, and invest in “clean coal” technology.

link

 

[two sheds]

How come people who usually speak English suddenly start speaking Dutch whenever I get like... really drunk.

geen flauw idee

 

[CrabbedOne]

Have we had this yet? Climate change policy deleted from White House website within minutes of swearing in.



link

...
For too long, we’ve been held back by burdensome regulations on our energy industry. President Trump is committed to eliminating harmful and unnecessary policies such as the Climate Action Plan and the Waters of the U.S. rule. Lifting these restrictions will greatly help American workers, increasing wages by more than $30 billion over the next 7 years.

Sound energy policy begins with the recognition that we have vast untapped domestic energy reserves right here in America. The Trump Administration will embrace the shale oil and gas revolution to bring jobs and prosperity to millions of Americans. We must take advantage of the estimated $50 trillion in untapped shale, oil, and natural gas reserves, especially those on federal lands that the American people own. We will use the revenues from energy production to rebuild our roads, schools, bridges and public infrastructure. Less expensive energy will be a big boost to American agriculture, as well.

The Trump Administration is also committed to clean coal technology, and to reviving America’s coal industry, which has been hurting for too long.

In addition to being good for our economy, boosting domestic energy production is in America’s national security interest. President Trump is committed to achieving energy independence from the OPEC cartel and any nations hostile to our interests. At the same time, we will work with our Gulf allies to develop a positive energy relationship as part of our anti-terrorism strategy.

Lastly, our need for energy must go hand-in-hand with responsible stewardship of the environment. Protecting clean air and clean water, conserving our natural habitats, and preserving our natural reserves and resources will remain a high priority. President Trump will refocus the EPA on its essential mission of protecting our air and water.
...

Well it is what he ran on. If you are going to go all drill baby drill I'd guess it follows the EPA with be rather busy with water issues.

This aspect of Trumpismo will probably be very popular with blue collar Americans and might well boost the US economy. If so it'll likely be copied.

ExxonMobile is going to have a lot less pesky ice cap to drill through.

 

[YouSir]

Well it is what he ran on. If you are going to go all drill baby drill I'd guess it follows the EPA with be rather busy with water issues.

This aspect of Trumpismo will probably be very popular with blue collar Americans and might well boost the US economy. If so it'll likely be copied.

ExxonMobile is going to have a lot less pesky ice cap to drill through.

Doubt it'll be successful alone. A lot of US oil is in expensive places. Expensive to drill, expensive to pipe out. It won't be competitive with OPEC prices, especially if countries like S.A. continue to surpress them to restrain US production. Only works sustainably if you jack up tariffs on imports, subsidize companies even more and/or negate safety regs and labour laws massively. Even then it'll still end up more expensive at the pumps. Not a vote winner even if you do say 'buy American'.

Or so I'm told by those who know about these things.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Doubt it'll be successful alone. A lot of US oil is in expensive places. Expensive to drill, expensive to pipe out. It won't be competitive with OPEC prices, especially if countries like S.A. continue to surpress them to restrain US production. Only works sustainably if you jack up tariffs on imports, subsidize companies even more and/or negate safety regs and labour laws massively. Even then it'll still end up more expensive at the pumps. Not a vote winner even if you do say 'buy American'.

Or so I'm told by those who know about these things.

Sounds right. And a trade war with the rest of the world involving varying degrees of autarky would be likely to send the US economy into a tailspin.

 

[Pickman's model]

Good for the pound mind

 

[CrabbedOne]

On CNBC Chinese are playing Trump like a drum: Economist

...
Weinberg also suggested he could immediately start discussing within the highest echelons of government the wall he has threatened to build between the U.S. and Mexico, potential deportations and tariff changes, as well as feasibly label China to be a currency manipulator.

"That would be interesting since China right now is manipulating to strengthen the yuan and if China stops at his request, the yuan will get weaker and he doesn't want that," the respected chief economist posited.

"I think the Chinese are playing him like a drum in this regard," he continued.

Contrasting Chinese President Xi's speech last Tuesday at the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos, which extolled the virtues of globalization, with Trump's protectionist inauguration delivery on Friday, Weinberg cautioned that he believed serious mistakes are about to be made on trade.

"Listening to President Xi step right up and say if the U.S. doesn't want to be the hegemon on trade and globalism, then we're happy to step up…that's a big change in the world economic order and I don't see how we can possibly benefit from that," he warned.
...

Xi at the WEF:

...
As a line in an old Chinese poem goes, “Honey melons hang on bitter vines; sweet dates grow on thistles and thorns.” In a philosophical sense, nothing is perfect in the world. One would fail to see the full picture if he claims something is perfect because of its merits, or if he views something as useless just because of its defects. It is true that economic globalization has created new problems, but this is no justification to write economic globalization off completely. Rather, we should adapt to and guide economic globalization, cushion its negative impact, and deliver its benefits to all countries and all nations.

There was a time when China also had doubts about economic globalization, and was not sure whether it should join the World Trade Organization. But we came to the conclusion that integration into the global economy is a historical trend. To grow its economy, China must have the courage to swim in the vast ocean of the global market. If one is always afraid of bracing the storm and exploring the new world, he will sooner or later get drowned in the ocean. Therefore, China took a brave step to embrace the global market. We have had our fair share of choking in the water and encountered whirlpools and choppy waves, but we have learned how to swim in this process. It has proved to be a right strategic choice.
...

Jesus, what a contrast the swagger to Bannon's beaten down laager mentality "American carnage".

Xi's basically saying protectionism is for pussies which is a bit rich as the Red Chinese do like to rig the game in their favour as Trump complains. I doubt The Donald will read this but it appears subtly calculated to both provoke and marginalise.

 

[CrabbedOne]

Doubt it'll be successful alone. A lot of US oil is in expensive places. Expensive to drill, expensive to pipe out. It won't be competitive with OPEC prices, especially if countries like S.A. continue to surpress them to restrain US production. Only works sustainably if you jack up tariffs on imports, subsidize companies even more and/or negate safety regs and labour laws massively. Even then it'll still end up more expensive at the pumps. Not a vote winner even if you do say 'buy American'.

Or so I'm told by those who know about these things.

Well the tariffs are his style as is the reg slashing. He'll just slash elite taxes, give bungs to corporations and encourage lots of lending and a speculative bubble. Lot's of churn for the second term. It may not be sustainable but Trump's a slash and burn kinda guy forever one step ahead of creditors.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Well the tariffs are his style as is the reg slashing. He'll just slash elite taxes, give bungs to corporations and encourage lots of lending and a speculative bubble. Lot's of churn for the second term. It may not be sustainable but Trump's a slash and burn kinda guy forever one step ahead of creditors.

We'll see over tariffs. He won't have much support from the Republican-controlled parliaments on that one.

 

[CrabbedOne]

We'll see over tariffs. He won't have much support from the Republican-controlled parliaments on that one.

As with war making he's got rather a lot of latitude including emergency powers:

...
7. Will he have the power to impose them?
Broadly speaking, yes. An American president’s unilateral authority on trade policy is exceptionally strong for a government based on checks and balances. While the Constitution gives Congress the power to regulate commerce with foreign nations, lawmakers over the years have delegated much of that power to the executive branch. Under the 1974 Trade Act, Trump can impose tariffs and quotas on countries that violate trade agreements or engage in unfair trade practices. One section authorizes the president to deal with balance-of-payments deficits by imposing temporary import surcharges of up to 15 percent for as long as 150 days. President Barack Obama in 2009 used the Trade Act to slap a tariff on Chinese tire imports.
...

Linky.

 

[CrabbedOne]

On Background Briefing January 22 - Trump's Dark Vision and Insecure Narcissism; Women Lead the Way; Will Trump Stop the Investigation Into His Campaign's Collusion With the Kremlin?; The Crying Need of a Strategy From the Democratic Party

A Podcast, Ian has Col Lawrence Wilkerson a veteran of Bush's first term and Glenn Carle formerly of the CIA. Both point to Trump's needy self regard as being rather dangerous.

Wilkerson really worries about the lack of experience and reckons this administration is uniquely unqualified to meet the test. That Trump simply doesn't get the logic of US energy strategy. I'm sure Tillerson does at least from a ExxonMobile perspective. But does the self obsessed Trump really listen to him? Or for that matter Mattis, no babe in the woods either, whom Wilkerson doesn't mention. Reckons if Trump isn't a TV celebrity farcically out of place but we are in a "33 moment" he will collide messily with the GOP establishment. Ian points out Kushner touring the MEE while visiting Ankara was found not to have heard of the PKK yet which raised some Turkish eyebrows.

Carle talks about his experience of the Bush purge of dissent at the CIA and anticipates something worse under Trump as he'll need to quash any investigation into his team. Says his now retired spook radar was going off about Russian Info Ops in the US elections a year ago and the same was happening internationally with various agencies waving red flags. He notes how the Bush torture program that he was involved in got nodded through rapidly by a few higher ups despite an awful lot of folk realising it was unconstitutional. Basically the US's vaunted checks&balances aren't worth diddly squat under Presidential pressure.

I do get the feeling that this lot are going to dry bummed for the next few years by the rival teams around the world like those under Putin and Xi. That is after all their job: fucking the Americans. Hell May's band of blithering Brexiters might even have a fighting chance.

 

[Septimus Rufiji]

caption competition

Yes, Mr President, while I fully appreciate that you're "So Good At The Creatitivity", Spongebob, here, is traditionally colored yellow

 

[J Ed]

Deep state grumbling continues

 

[DotCommunist]

Deep state grumbling continues

see, if and its a big if, the deep state/intelligence agencies were to mount a credible attempt at impeachment? Well surely they must see hw mental things would go...

 

[Raheem]

"Where's that blob of superglue gone?"
"It's right here, Mr President."