The Trump presidency

[ruffneck23]

cant see the you tube video at work

 

[Pickman's model]

cant see the you tube video at work

it's sheryl crow's 'every day is a winding road'

 

[ruffneck23]

ah

 

[CrabbedOne]

In Politico Does Kicking Out Mexicans Create Jobs?

...
We show that U.S. farms primarily responded to the absence of braceros in some of these alternative ways, not by raising wages. In crops with readily available mechanization technologies for harvesting and field preparation, those technologies were quickly adopted. The starkest example is California tomato picking, where the excluded braceros were mostly replaced by mass-adoption of mechanized harvesters within just one year. In crops where technologies didn’t exist for quick mechanization—like asparagus and fresh strawberries—exclusion of bracero caused sharp declines in production. That reflects some combination of U.S. agriculture changing its crop mix, moving production abroad and farmers being forced out of business.
...

An agribusiness lesson from the 60s. It would be the little guys who went bust and sold out to big concerns that had the resources to find different ways to make a profit. Get rid of a labour supply and employers tend to finally invest in automation not pay more. That's been a pattern all over manufacturing. As with 20th century farming it's not the job creator it once was.

Of course there are other reasons for not liking strange folk coming in at the bottom of the food chain.

 

[a_chap]

Not sure former judges of any political flavour carry that mush sway to be honest.

"So-called judges", surely.

 

[chandlerp]

What would it actually take for the US to reboot the election cycle and run a new one?

I know there is no mechanism for this - this is after all the plot of now-obsolete drama Designated Survivor - but what would it take for a change?

How many iterations of incompetence would they need? How many times would they have to hand the presidency further down the chain to an unelected (Pence aside) meatsack until the whole thing, just, well, broke?

It's not obsolete, it's back next month

 

[Pickman's model]

It's not obsolete, it's back next month

it is obsolete and it is back next month.

 

[mauvais]

It's not obsolete, it's back next month

It's completely obsolete - reality is far more disastrous and dramatic.

 

[ruffneck23]

Politicians are reviewing the procedures for removing Trump

 

[CrabbedOne]

On Naked Capitalism No, Trump Isn’t Imploding — But the Opposition Is Broad and Intense

...
A DC insider had a different perspective. He didn’t regard the intelligence leaks as all that damaging, but thought that Trump was at sea in terms of getting things done inside the Beltway. Given the composition of his team, things were unlikely to get better on that front. Trump is sorely lacking in people who knew how to get the right players on board or at least somewhat placated. Thus Pence muscling aside Christie was a big loss; although Christie might not have taken the job, Christie would have been invaluable to Trump as a chief of staff and would have brought that expertise. Put it another way: Trump has too many billionaires on his team who like him don’t know what they don’t know. This is consistent with one of our occasional observations: that Trump would wind up being a blustery, hyperkinetic version of a Jimmy Carter: an outsider who got little done because he had far too few DC old hand in his Administration. Carter mistakenly thought Watergate gave him a mandate to do things differently; Trump owed too many favors to marginal players who were willing to back him early and had a hard time getting members of the GOP mainstream to sign on.
...

Piece goes on to look at Trump voter motivations and pretty unchanged level of support.

Well consider this:

On The John Batcherlor Show Trump’s Early White House Missteps & What is to be done? @salenazito @cnn @gwspm.

Worth a listen, towards the end has a reporter who'd been out at Rust Belt gun shows saying the Trump base were happy as Larry with the God Emperor. Some mild criticism of the mishandling of the "Muslim Ban" but no sign of buyer's remorse.

 

[8den]

With Trump's win in China, will Trump toilets get flushed?

Nope no conflict of interest there AT ALL.

 

[bimble]

I think this article is just contrarian showing off and wishful thinking but it has this little nugget in it:
Trump in his memoirs apparently said “The day I realised it can be smart to be shallow was, for me, a deep experience.”
That must have been a relief, and probably the last time he felt it necessary to think about anything much at all.

 

[CrabbedOne]

On TSG IntelBrief: The Danger of a Narrow View of Violent Extremism

...
Far-right extremist activity—and political engagement by fringe groups that have largely been seen as illegitimate for decades—experienced an uptick over the course of the 2016 presidential election and its aftermath. Young members of far-right nationalist groups have coalesced online and formed a new identity, which they call the ‘alt-right.’ While members of the alt-right claim that violent white supremacist activity is of the past, leaders such as Richard Spencer have received widespread attention for engaging in overt displays of Nazi rhetoric and symbolism in public arenas. Membership in hate groups has been growing as well, with the number of active hate groups in the U.S. nearly tripling from 2015 to 2016 according to the Southern Poverty Law Center. Almost 50 of these new groups are branches of the anti-Muslim group ‘ACT for America.’

While the alt-right formally disavows violence, its rise comes at a moment when incidents of hate crimes are increasing in the United States. A report by the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point has identified three distinct far-right ideologies that espouse violence in America: racists, anti-federalists (such as sovereign citizens), and fundamentalists (groups which believe in the superiority of Christians of Anglo-Saxon descent). While acts of far-right violence are often seen as ‘one-off’ incidents—such as the Oklahoma City bombing by Timothy McVeigh—there has been a disturbing string of hate crimes since the conclusion of the 2016 election. These have included attacks on Jewish centers, three burned mosques, and multiple attacks on Muslim women. Last week, a 27-year-old man brought himself to a hospital after an exposure to ricin. While it is unclear what he intended to do with the toxin, his social media profile reveals him to be a self-identified ‘white racial loyalist.’

The Internet has played a key role in reinvigorating far-right and white supremacy movements, as it provides a place for individuals to easily and anonymously peruse and engage with extremist ideology. ‘Stormfront,’ one of the more popular far-right websites, is run by a former grand dragon of the KKK, and logs about 40,000 visits a day. Another site, ‘The Daily Stormer’—known for its ‘troll army’ of followers—recently published the names, contact information, and photos of Jewish residents in a Montana town, with instructions to attack their social media accounts and harm those who fight back. The radicalization of Dylann Roof, who killed nine African American churchgoers in South Carolina, can be directly linked to engagement with hate groups online. An investigation by the Southern Poverty Law Center tracked that Roof’s radicalization was likely kicked off by reading false data about crime committed by African Americans on racist websites.

Furthermore, there is the possibility that far-right groups may be receiving support from abroad. Unsubstantiated allegations purport that Russian-based trolls and bot campaigns lend their capabilities to further far-right and nationalist agendas as part of a larger influence campaign in the West—a trend that has been an active part of the political climate in Europe for several years.
...

I do wonder how much of this "populist" wave is simply connected with the rise of the internet troll and various shouty echo chambers amplifying grievance that would once have been murmured only between confidants.

We do after all have a US President who is a Twittering online bully with an Chief Strategist whose made a late mid-life crisis career of web enabled race baiting.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

It's completely obsolete - reality is far more disastrous and dramatic.

Reality could only be improved by starting over again, ala Designated Survivor.

 

[bimble]

On TSG IntelBrief: The Danger of a Narrow View of Violent Extremism
I do wonder how much of this "populist" wave is simply connected with the rise of the internet troll and various shouty echo chambers amplifying grievance that would once have been murmured only between confidants.

We do after all have a US President who is a Twittering online bully with an Chief Strategist whose made a late mid-life crisis career of web enabled race baiting.

Definitely. The internet is what underlies all of this, I think, the noise of the resurgent 'new right' with its massive MRA overlap, atomised people trying to make sense of the world being "radicalised" online (anyone who goes looking for tips on how to pick up women, or is drawn to youtube videos about aliens, will be two clicks away from holocaust denial and violent islamophobia every time).
On the upside I try to bear this in mind when looking at these footsoldiers, the contributors to websites like those mentioned in that article and to remember that they most likely won't do anything much because they are sitting in their bedroom in their underpants waiting for their mom to make them dinner.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

Woman seeks sanctuary at Denver church:

A mother of four facing impending deportation from the United States has taken sanctuary in a Denver church in hope of gaining a “stay of deportation.”

Jeanette Vizguerra, who is in the country illegally, avoided a scheduled meeting with U.S. Immigration and Customs and Enforcement (ICE) officials and instead declared sanctuary at the First Unitarian Society of Denver.

Vizguerra’s declaration of sanctuary came after her “stay of removal expired” and she feared a scheduled meeting with ICE on Wednesday would have resulted in immediate detention and quick deportation.

Mother of four fears deportation, declares sanctuary at Denver church – The Denver Post

 

[littlebabyjesus]

On TSG IntelBrief: The Danger of a Narrow View of Violent Extremism
I do wonder how much of this "populist" wave is simply connected with the rise of the internet troll and various shouty echo chambers amplifying grievance that would once have been murmured only between confidants.

McVeigh was radicalised pre-internet. These groups use the internet, of course, as everyone else does, including the groups that oppose them. But that's just whatever group using whatever means at its disposal to communicate. I don't see any reason to believe that there is a causal connection between the means of communication and the nature of the groups as they exist now. I do agree that a relatively small group of people can now achieve greater noise than previously, though. What effect that might have, I'm not sure. Truth is that we on here tend to be acutely aware of this stuff, because we pay attention to it, but many other people really aren't.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

On the upside I try to bear this in mind when looking at these footsoldiers, the contributors to websites like those mentioned in that article and to remember that they most likely won't do anything much because they are sitting in their bedroom in their underpants waiting for their mom to make them dinner.

Dylann Roof was one such sad case, mind.

But the state is busy burying Roof, both literally and metaphorically. He was deemed to have 'self-radicalised' and will be killed and forgotten about, much like McVeigh was. With associates of these groups in the White House, that attitude is only likely to continue and get worse.

 

[camouflage]

McVeigh was radicalised pre-internet. These groups use the internet, of course, as everyone else does, including the groups that oppose them. But that's just whatever group using whatever means at its disposal to communicate. I don't see any reason to believe that there is a causal connection between the means of communication and the nature of the groups as they exist now. I do agree that a relatively small group of people can now achieve greater noise than previously, though. What effect that might have, I'm not sure. Truth is that we on here tend to be acutely aware of this stuff, because we pay attention to it, but many other really people aren't.

Well the powerful communications platform that is the internet plus its inherent network effects leads to self-reinforcing feedback dynamics that will tend to grow these things out and up. Now everyone has a new car and there are more and broader roads, everyone can travel further. On the plus side there are more traffic jams.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Well the powerful communications platform that is the internet plus its inherent network effects leads to self-reinforcing feedback dynamics that will tend to grow these things out and up.

It certainly enables virtual communities to form that are dispersed geographically. This here is one such. But I would think this is a case of non-linear dynamics - you have access to hateful lies not previously available, but also access to powerful arguments against those lies not previously available. I would suggest that these effects are hard to model.

 

[camouflage]

It certainly enables virtual communities to form that are dispersed geographically. This here is one such. But I would think this is a case of non-linear dynamics - you have access to hateful lies not previously available, but also access to powerful arguments against those lies not previously available. I would suggest that these effects are hard to model.

People visiting certain sites on the one hand are much less likely to visit the equivalents on the other side of the argument (assuming such even exists). Also my point wasn't necessarily about the geographical aspect, like-minded others in a local area can now more efficiently meet, share ideas and resources. They can have Meetups, invite each other to further events or podcasts or talks or lend each other books and generally circle-jerk themselves to an ever greater sense of whatever concept of an identity they favour, and generally higher states of confidence in what they're into. It's all a growing market-space I guess... but yes, hard to model.

 

[Pickman's model]

McVeigh was radicalised pre-internet. These groups use the internet, of course, as everyone else does, including the groups that oppose them. But that's just whatever group using whatever means at its disposal to communicate. I don't see any reason to believe that there is a causal connection between the means of communication and the nature of the groups as they exist now. I do agree that a relatively small group of people can now achieve greater noise than previously, though. What effect that might have, I'm not sure. Truth is that we on here tend to be acutely aware of this stuff, because we pay attention to it, but many other really people aren't.

well spotted. there is of course a causal connection between the means of communication and the nature of groups as they exist now. for example, it is clear that a group using the internet is less likely to meet physically, or for its members to live as near each other, than a similar organisation 20 years ago. the means of communication allow for greater dispersal and for greater remote radicalisation than previously. but don't take my word for it, see e.g. http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10584600701471666. the means of communication, be it face to face, by letter or by a whole range of media on the internet, is going to affect the organisation and thus the dynamics of a political organisation. and to declare otherwise is to fly in the face of reality.

 

[Pickman's model]

It certainly enables virtual communities to form that are dispersed geographically. This here is one such. But I would think this is a case of non-linear dynamics - you have access to hateful lies not previously available, but also access to powerful arguments against those lies not previously available. I would suggest that these effects are hard to model.

yes.

you would.

but i don't see why it would be hard to model, being as it would be a reinforcing loop, wouldn't it.

 

[bimble]

It certainly enables virtual communities to form that are dispersed geographically. This here is one such. But I would think this is a case of non-linear dynamics - you have access to hateful lies not previously available, but also access to powerful arguments against those lies not previously available. I would suggest that these effects are hard to model.

Of course if people want to they have the ability to check the soundness of whatever information they are consuming but the fact is that mostly people don't do that, they just believe and re-tweet / 'like' whatever it is that makes them feel good and reinforces a sense of belonging to whatever group. Including lies that are extremely easy to disprove.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Of course if people want to they have the ability to check the soundness of whatever information they are consuming but the fact is that mostly people don't do that, they just believe and re-tweet / 'like' whatever it is that makes them feel good and reinforces a sense of belonging to whatever group. Including lies that are extremely easy to disprove.

I wouldn't be so confident to declare that the existence of the internet has led to a rise in false beliefs. Even your average pub bore can't get away with it now - someone can just google their bullshit statement on their phone.

 

[Pickman's model]

I wouldn't be so confident to declare that the existence of the internet has led to a rise in false beliefs. Even your average pub bore can't get away with it now - someone can just google their bullshit statement on their phone.

yeh. cos obviously the internet stopped people believing in the nonsense about barack obama's birth and about his religion
and it's stopped people being climate change sceptics
and it's stomped on all the conspiracy theories about diana
just because someone can google the bullshit and see it ripped to shreds online doesn't mean it will change people's minds irl.

tell you what, next time you hear someone talking about seaman staines and master bates and roger the cabin boy in captain pugwash, go up to them and google it and show them the error of their ways.

i am sure they will be persuaded you're right

 

[hot air baboon]

Get rid of a labour supply and employers tend to finally invest in automation not pay more. That's been a pattern all over manufacturing. As with 20th century farming it's not the job creator it once was.

...there's always the slight drawback that robots don't down go to the shops to buy these industries products ofcourse...

 

[bimble]

I wouldn't be so confident to declare that the existence of the internet has led to a rise in false beliefs. Even your average pub bore can't get away with it now - someone can just google their bullshit statement on their phone.

What about the fact that, according to this, some 72 % of registered Republican voters still think Obama is probably not an American. Even though he showed his birth certificate and the whole thing was clearly a malicious confection invented and disseminated online based on nothing at all.

 

[Pickman's model]

yeh. cos obviously the internet stopped people believing in the nonsense about barack obama's birth and about his religion
and it's stopped people being climate change sceptics
and it's stomped on all the conspiracy theories about diana
just because someone can google the bullshit and see it ripped to shreds online doesn't mean it will change people's minds irl.

tell you what, next time you hear someone talking about seaman staines and master bates and roger the cabin boy in captain pugwash, go up to them and google it and show them the error of their ways.

i am sure they will be persuaded you're right

What about the fact that, according to this, some 72 % of registered Republican voters still think Obama is probably not an American. Even though he showed his birth certificate and the whole thing was clearly a malicious confection invented and disseminated online based on nothing at all.

great minds think alike

 

[bimble]

great minds think alike

Or are you and me just inhabiting the same online echo chamber or self perpetuating delusion?