butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Considering he then said "Fine, thank you. Two years to see who is right, then." ... in may 2013.
That's funny.
The next coalition government
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
Your entire proposition was based in my opinion on the idea that most activists and elected reps in the main parties aren't actually quite attached to their own existing parties and thanks to our electoral system and that attachment based on networks of friendship, mutual obligation and support, and yes even some political commitment are extremely reluctant to merge, split, or ally political parties or to move between them.
Look at the enmity towards Carswell and Reckless even from many Tory right wingers.
All the above is coupled with the fact that the big three parties are slow to react to change - and when they do it will be about stealing the votes of rivals not validating them with alliances.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
the lib-lab pact didn't lead to a merger did it? so much for your inevitability
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
you do know you come across here as a desperate pedant, don't you? i thought i should tell you because everyone else is making sport of you and you don't seem to know it.
Maurice Picarda
Actually, might as well flounce.
the lib-lab pact didn't lead to a merger did it? so much for your inevitability
1903? No, you're right. It probably did for the Liberals though.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
while i was thinking of the 1970s one, by bringing up an earlier example you prevent yourself using the auld 'exception that proves the rule' argument, showing just how wrong you were with this inevitability wank you seemed so sure of just a few minutes ago.
Maurice Picarda
Actually, might as well flounce.
Did they divvy up constituencies in the 70s? I thought it was a post-election Westminster agreement.
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
There are seats where UKIP have traditionally not stood against the tory incumbent because they've been enough of a swivel-eyed loon to be seen as 'on their side' (Phil Davies is one near me). Not certain that will happen this time, I think UKIP have enough momentum and infrastructure to stand everywhere and boost their national share, particularly as they now see their support as coming from non-tory parties too. Don't know what impact this might have, it could split the right vote in marginal seats and maybe help depose people like Rees-Mogg.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
That's an interesting point and I'm not sure that I've read anything that offers a firm indication of what UKIP expects to do in May. In 2010 they fielded candidates in all but about 90 of the 650 seats, and Pearson was a key driver behind the unoffical "pact" with the swivel-eyed tories. He's much less influential now, and I'm sure UKIP will want to present themselves as a truly national party...so aside from NI (presumably) they'll go for all?
Lo Siento.
Second As Farce
Not sure it's quite that deliberate. They've stood against arch-eurosceptic Mark Pritchard in The Wrekin for years, despite it being Labour 1997-2001 and marginal Tory in 2005. If they're not standing anywhere it's more likely that they just didn't have anyone worth standing... (whatever they may claim to be doing)
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
They're going for the lot.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
going for broke i hope
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Not NI?
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Ah, no - scotland and E&W and as an independent party.
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
If the Tories have more votes than Labour, yes.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Ah...hold on...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/pol...-Farage-we-will-fight-every-seat-in-2015.html
well, well well
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Depends what your expectations are - if they do well enough to take 20 seats,then yeah. But they won't - they'll do well enough to lose tory seats and save labour ones. They're need to jump to steady 25% in the polls to do otherwise.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Do you know, i just thought to myself after posting that,what have they got to lose by standing in NI? 5 or so grand - so what?
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Yep...and gain by claiming that they don't have to take lectures from the 'big 2' about being a national' party..as those 2 will both be below 650. I suppose the clue is in the name!
Lo Siento.
Second As Farce
maybe the people of NI will throw off their various forms of nationalism and unite under the banner of Faragism
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
"Newsnight" is working with the politics dept. at UEA to produce a rolling prediction of the seat numbers for the May GE. Here is a screenshot of their first prediction of the year that was broadcast last night.
On those figures, no 2 parties could form a coalition...it would require at least 3.
Interesting they list parties that will get only one seat, but ignore one that will get five - Sinn Fein.
Of course the Shinners wont take their seats, plus 1 speaker, needs you need 323 to gain a bare majority. So Labour+ non-English nationalists scrapes through. Tories cant really do it at all on those figures.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
in bygone days the bbc wouldn't have needed boffins from uea to do the crunching for them."Newsnight" is working with the politics dept. at UEA to produce a rolling prediction of the seat numbers for the May GE. Here is a screenshot of their first prediction of the year that was broadcast last night.
On those figures, no 2 parties could form a coalition...it would require at least 3.
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
No, in the old days they'd have got boffins from Oxbridge
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
in the auld days they'd all have been to oxbridge so wouldn't need boffins at all.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
In any remotely sensible world no, it would do massive damage to both Tories and Labour when they are already losing voters to other parties, no intelligent politician would form such a coalition. That said the venality of politicians should not be underestimated.
ViolentPanda
Hardly getting over it.
Surely "civic duty" means "duty to your community", not "duty to exercise your voting franchise regardless of whether the person you vote for will serve your community or not".
ViolentPanda
Hardly getting over it.
Managerialism is no indication of competence.
In fact, a good argument could be made for "managerial skills", as learned by most MBAs and tens of thousands of our mid-ranking bureaucrats, are a symptom of lack of ability and competence. They generally miss the most important part (IMO) of any type of "management", which is successfully facilitating the work of others.
bemused
Well-Known Member
My point is I want to vote for someone who is a leader with a vision - not a manager, which all of the current lot are pitching themselves as. It wasn't a compliment.
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