The next coalition government

[ViolentPanda]

I don't know why anyone feels that Osborne will be the next Conservative leader, he won't be.

Several reasons, all easily discernable from reading the daily papers:

1) He's manouvered himself well so that he can shift the blame for the Coalition's most egregious policies elsewhere - Austerity to Cameron and "the debts Labour left us with" (remember that this doesn't have to play well to the UK-at-large, only to the Conservative voters and the party membership): The NHS to Lansley and Hunt; Education to Gove.
2) He's spent the last 4 years ingratiating himself with the "backwoodsmen" MPs.
3) He has been able to keeps his cards closer to his chest with regard to EU membership than Cameron, and this has given him more potential traction with the Euro-sceptics in his party.
4) He can present himself to the party membership (although not to anyone else!) as a "new broom" while simultaneously adopting a role as a "back to the roots" Conservative. Most of his putative competitors for the leadership didn't play the long game that he has, and are subsequently more tainted with "Cameronism" than he is (he can, due to point 1 above, divorce himself from some of the blame).

May, Gove and the other Tory serving or ex-Cabinet members can't defend themselves as robustly as Osborne will be able to, and possible challengers like David Davies will be monstered from the start of any leadership contest by the rest of the contenders and much of the rightwing press (bar The Mail.

 

[Lo Siento.]

my understanding was that he was pretty universally understood by constituency tories as a "moderniser" and they didn't like that.

 

[Sasaferrato]

Several reasons, all easily discernable from reading the daily papers:

1) He's manouvered himself well so that he can shift the blame for the Coalition's most egregious policies elsewhere - Austerity to Cameron and "the debts Labour left us with" (remember that this doesn't have to play well to the UK-at-large, only to the Conservative voters and the party membership): The NHS to Lansley and Hunt; Education to Gove.
2) He's spent the last 4 years ingratiating himself with the "backwoodsmen" MPs.
3) He has been able to keeps his cards closer to his chest with regard to EU membership than Cameron, and this has given him more potential traction with the Euro-sceptics in his party.
4) He can present himself to the party membership (although not to anyone else!) as a "new broom" while simultaneously adopting a role as a "back to the roots" Conservative. Most of his putative competitors for the leadership didn't play the long game that he has, and are subsequently more tainted with "Cameronism" than he is (he can, due to point 1 above, divorce himself from some of the blame).

May, Gove and the other Tory serving or ex-Cabinet members can't defend themselves as robustly as Osborne will be able to, and possible challengers like David Davies will be monstered from the start of any leadership contest by the rest of the contenders and much of the rightwing press (bar The Mail.

The next leader of the Conservative party isn't an MP at the moment. He will be after the next election.

 

[Lo Siento.]

The next leader of the Conservative party isn't an MP at the moment. He will be after the next election.

How do you feel about your boys being lead by such a "colourful character"?

 

[Sasaferrato]

Salmond has already said the SNP won't go into coalition with the Tories. He may not be leader from November 17 but he will probably lead them at Westminster as MP for Gordon (with Darling and Murphy probably not standing and Brown's seat very safe he'll probably stick with his local constituency) and will have a big say. Sturgeon would be even less inclined to go into coalition with them. It just won't happen. Salmond has shown an interest in a possible coalition with Labour but I am not convinced Labour could stomach that.

Independence has not left the agenda up here. Most recent polling shows 66% want another referendum in the next five/ten years (which is astonishing on many levels), with 52% saying they would now vote yes - only the 4th/5th poll in a decade with a Yes lead by my count. I'm not of the view that there would now be a Yes vote now, but it tells a story.

You still see Yes window and car signs every time you leave the house and almost 100,000 have joined Yes supporting political parties.

In my view Labour will make a fundamental error in going down the Jim Murphy route. Murphy is toxic to Yes voters and the left. I opened my newspaper in the supermarket last week to photos of Murphy and the guy behind me started ranting about him to his son. Many people absolutely loathe him. Many No voters w

I still expect the polls to narrow as the Labour/ Tory election reality approaches, but the SNP should win Scotland on popular vote and probably seats too. A landslide/ Labour wipeout is not unlikely. Part of their problem is there is little scope for tactical voting from No voters. Tories won't vote Labour to stop the SNP in a General Election, more likely vice versa. Their motivations are radically different to Yes voters, many of whom are desperate to hit Labour where it hurts.

Yes, they will. As will Lib Dem supporters. I don't think you understand the visceral hatred of the SNP by the 'No' side of the house.

 

[ViolentPanda]

The next leader of the Conservative party isn't an MP at the moment. He will be after the next election.

I really doubt it. The problem with your thesis is that Conservatives are by nature conservative and reactionary. They'll go with the one who makes them feel safest, and that isn't some former MEP.

 

[Sasaferrato]

How do you feel about your boys being lead by such a "colourful character"?

I'm merely a bystander. I have no political affiliation. If Boris succeeds in 'humanising' the Conservatives, then I will return to them. If he doesn't, or indeed doesn't win, leaving the current heap of steaming faeces in place, then I will continue to have no political affiliation.

 

[Sasaferrato]

I really doubt it. The problem with your thesis is that Conservatives are by nature conservative and reactionary. They'll go with the one who makes them feel safest, and that isn't some former MEP.

Eh? When was Boris an MEP?

 

[butchersapron]

I'm merely a bystander. I have no political affiliation. If Boris succeeds in 'humanising' the Conservatives, then I will return to them. If he doesn't, or indeed doesn't win, leaving the current heap of steaming faeces in place, then I will continue to have no political affiliation.

That doesn't sound very bystanderish. It sounds like you have a very clear (to you at least) preferred outcome that you would be prepared to work for and support.

 

[ViolentPanda]

Eh? When was Boris an MEP?

Hmm, I thought you were talking about someone with a political bone in his body like Hannan.
While I wouldn't mind Bore-arse Johnson as the next leader of the party, he'd be the kiss of death to oppositional politics even in the attenuated form it now has. He doesn't have the depth or the focus to have been a decent London mayor (his election and re-election being more a sign of continuing discontent among Londoners with Labour), let alone leader of the Conservative Party and/or a potential Prime Minister. He's just as divorced from "the real world" as Cameron, and no amount of acting the goat can erase that.

BTW, have you read his recently-published biography of Churchill? If you haven't, don't bother. It's pretty much a hagiography, and an inaccurate one at that.

 

[Sasaferrato]

Hmm, I thought you were talking about someone with a political bone in his body like Hannan.
While I wouldn't mind Bore-arse Johnson as the next leader of the party, he'd be the kiss of death to oppositional politics even in the attenuated form it now has. He doesn't have the depth or the focus to have been a decent London mayor (his election and re-election being more a sign of continuing discontent among Londoners with Labour), let alone leader of the Conservative Party and/or a potential Prime Minister. He's just as divorced from "the real world" as Cameron, and no amount of acting the goat can erase that.

BTW, have you read his recently-published biography of Churchill? If you haven't, don't bother. It's pretty much a hagiography, and an inaccurate one at that.

I rarely read biographies. If the person is of interest to me, I research them myself.

 

[butchersapron]

I rarely read biographies. If the person is of interest to me, I research them myself.

One way of doing that is via biographies.

 

[butchersapron]

Seriously, what an odd post. If i want to find about someone i start by not reading what's been written about them by others.

 

[brogdale]

I don't know why anyone feels that Osborne will be the next Conservative leader, he won't be.

Out of interest...what bearing do you feel this might have over the composition of the next coalition government?

 

[Sasaferrato]

Out of interest...what bearing do you feel this might have over the composition of the next coalition government?

I honestly don't know. I have never seen an election with so many variables. Boris won't be a factor, he is only likely to become leader in the event of a Conservative loss.

The SNP and UKIP are the two unknown factors really. If the polls are right (God forbid), the SNP will take enough seats to stop a Labour victory, and as Labour won't drop Trident, then the SNP, if they have a shred of integrity (which they haven't), will not go into coalition with them.

The most likely outcome is a Labour minority government, and an early election.

 

[Dogsauce]

Early election with Boris leading the Tories on a populist 'LOL Boris' groundswell? Fuck that.

Giddo is oily, uncharasmatic and has a few skeletons in his closet, but then so is the current leader and they've got away with it just fine.

 

[Jeremiah18.17]

Smaller parties including SNP will go for confidence and supply arrangement rather than coalition. This will mean no early second election. Only party wanting a second election quickly will be Tories because of their war chest advantage.

 

[Lo Siento.]

Seriously, what an odd post. If i want to find about someone i start by not reading what's been written about them by others.

Presumably he goes straight to their personal papers and does all the original research himself.

 

[ViolentPanda]

I rarely read biographies. If the person is of interest to me, I research them myself.

And what do you think you're reading when you "research" them, chopped liver? It's all biography, unless it's autobiography!

As for Boris, if you've researched the man you're punting as the next leader of the Tory Party, you'll know just how polarising a presence he is within the local Conservative associations. That ageing membership that Central Office worries about aren't particularly impressed by someone who can't keep his cock in his pants, and who's publicly sexually-incontinent. Not the done thing to impregnate your mistress and then brazen it out, and someone who's done it three times or more, well....

 

[ViolentPanda]

Presumably he goes straight to their personal papers and does all the original research himself.

He'd still be reading biography and autobiography, though. No text is neutral. Perhaps he doesn't realise that the best strategy is to read widely, about the person and the events in their lifetime, and to then form a conclusion based on that broad reading?

 

[ViolentPanda]

I honestly don't know. I have never seen an election with so many variables. Boris won't be a factor, he is only likely to become leader in the event of a Conservative loss.

The SNP and UKIP are the two unknown factors really. If the polls are right (God forbid), the SNP will take enough seats to stop a Labour victory, and as Labour won't drop Trident, then the SNP, if they have a shred of integrity (which they haven't), will not go into coalition with them.

The most likely outcome is a Labour minority government, and an early election.

Look to the progression of Tory party leaders after '97. Hague, followed by Dunked-in Shit, followed by Howard, followed by Cameron. It took 9 years and 3 failures before Cameron got the nod. Three rightists before the supposedly "compassionate Conservative" Cameron. Boris has no political hinterland, just a career in journalism and wastrelcy, so why would a party whose tensions between right and left are at mid-'90s levels elect someone with no base political convictions, but instead a desire for power for its' own sake? Are they really that stupid and/or desperate?

 

[Lo Siento.]

He'd still be reading biography and autobiography, though. No text is neutral. Perhaps he doesn't realise that the best strategy is to read widely, about the person and the events in their lifetime, and to then form a conclusion based on that broad reading?

I know, I was being sarcastic. I don't actually believes he spends all his time in archives.

 

[ViolentPanda]

I know, I was being sarcastic. I don't actually believes he spends all his time in archives.

Where would he get the time for his philately and whisky-drinking, if he were spending all his time in archives?

 

[Lo Siento.]

Where would he get the time for his philately and whisky-drinking, if he were spending all his time in archives?

Also not sure even Boris is enough of an egotist to archive his papers whilst still alive.

 

[ViolentPanda]

Also not sure even Boris is enough of an egotist to archive his papers whilst still alive.

Yeah, I think it's very much a case with Johnson that while he's daft, he isn't plain stupid. Cunning like a weasel, maybe!

 

[brogdale]

Numerous polls indicating that the SNP has support with the potential to gain between 30 & 40 seats, so what happens when that sort of figure is factored into the 2015 GE mix?

With the present 'state of play' shown in brackets...

(* I'll keep the NI stuff the same as 2010 co I don't know enough about the politics of the province to make any other prediction.)

The only conclusion is some form of "rainbow" coalition. With SNP support or coalition Lab could get close, leaving them 9 short on 317. Whereas the vermin & LDs would fall 25 short on 301.

If this punt of mine were anywhere close, its obvious that the parties commanding the 18 NI seats will hold the balance; perhaps the pollsters should be paying more attention to how the parties there might poll?

Well...according to the 'wisdom' of gamblers...here's the current thinking on the 2015 seats outcome...

 

[brogdale]

So (mid-spread) that's:-
Lab 286
Con 281
LD 28
UKIP 8
SNP 29

compared to my effort of...

Con 270

Labour 280
Scottish National 37

Liberal Democrat 31

Democratic Unionist 8*

Sinn Fein 5*
Independent 3*
Plaid Cymru 3
Social Democratic & Labour Party 3*
Alliance 1*
Green 1
Respect 0
Speaker 1
UK Independence Party 7
Vacant 0
Total number of seats 650

 

[SpookyFrank]

Well...according to the 'wisdom' of gamblers...here's the current thinking on the 2015 seats outcome...

These gamblers aren't very wise if they think the SNP are gonna win 28.5 seats

 

[brogdale]

C4 News report on attempts to 'model' or guess the shape of the next parliament with Fisher, Kellner and Ladbrokes...

http://bcove.me/runmza0i

 

[brogdale]

"Newsnight" is working with the politics dept. at UEA to produce a rolling prediction of the seat numbers for the May GE. Here is a screenshot of their first prediction of the year that was broadcast last night.

On those figures, no 2 parties could form a coalition...it would require at least 3.