The next coalition government

[belboid]

I'm not totally convinced by that. In order for that to happen the highest SNP and lowest LD polling would have to actually transpire at the ballot box.

I'd speculate that the LDs will actually hold onto around 25 to 30 of their seats, and that the nationalists will add 20 odd to their present tally...giving them roughly similar weight at Westminster.

Have you seen the state of Labour up there? Murphy may be competent, but he'd be hammered as a Blairite arsewipe. Dugdale may be better politically, but who's heard of her? Well, I havent anyway, no idea wht her politics are (ever so slightly to the left of Murphy, afaics)

 

[brogdale]

they can afford to be very demanding of which ever party courts them

There is only one party that could/would 'court' them.

 

[marty21]

There is only one party that could/would 'court' them.

you never can tell - Tories would be desperate, might offer the world!

 

[brogdale]

you never can tell - Tories would be desperate, might offer the world!

They don't even think they should have full voting rights in the chamber ffs.

 

[marty21]

They don't even think they should have full voting rights in the chamber ffs.

they'll talk to them if they can do a deal

 

[where to]

Salmond has already said the SNP won't go into coalition with the Tories. He may not be leader from November 17 but he will probably lead them at Westminster as MP for Gordon (with Darling and Murphy probably not standing and Brown's seat very safe he'll probably stick with his local constituency) and will have a big say. Sturgeon would be even less inclined to go into coalition with them. It just won't happen. Salmond has shown an interest in a possible coalition with Labour but I am not convinced Labour could stomach that.

Independence has not left the agenda up here. Most recent polling shows 66% want another referendum in the next five/ten years (which is astonishing on many levels), with 52% saying they would now vote yes - only the 4th/5th poll in a decade with a Yes lead by my count. I'm not of the view that there would now be a Yes vote now, but it tells a story.

You still see Yes window and car signs every time you leave the house and almost 100,000 have joined Yes supporting political parties.

In my view Labour will make a fundamental error in going down the Jim Murphy route. Murphy is toxic to Yes voters and the left. I opened my newspaper in the supermarket last week to photos of Murphy and the guy behind me started ranting about him to his son. Many people absolutely loathe him. Many No voters w

I still expect the polls to narrow as the Labour/ Tory election reality approaches, but the SNP should win Scotland on popular vote and probably seats too. A landslide/ Labour wipeout is not unlikely. Part of their problem is there is little scope for tactical voting from No voters. Tories won't vote Labour to stop the SNP in a General Election, more likely vice versa. Their motivations are radically different to Yes voters, many of whom are desperate to hit Labour where it hurts.

 

[belboid]

In my view Labour will make a fundamental error in going down the Jim Murphy route. Murphy is toxic to Yes voters and the left. I opened my newspaper in the supermarket last week to photos of Murphy and the guy behind me started ranting about him to his son. Many people absolutely loathe him. Many No voters w

what about Dugdale?

 

[butchersapron]

How solid are these ipsos-mori snp voting figures do people think? They have the reputation for giving SNP the best returns. I had a look on their site to compare with previous polls but over the last two years they only polled for the scottish parliament.

 

[brogdale]

How solid are these ipsos-mori snp voting figures do people think? They have the reputation for giving SNP the best returns. I had a look on their site to compare with previous polls but over the last two years they only polled for the scottish parliament.

Not sure, but compared with the YG one..they look exaggerated and yet basically sound in their pattern.

Though putting those numbers through the Scot Electoral Calculus, even those (apparently small) differences produce quite different outcomes:-

Ipsos-Mori = SNP 54 , Lab 4, LD 1
YouGov = SNP 46, Lab 13

 

[butchersapron]

Going to need to see this for a few months really aren't we?

 

[brogdale]

Going to need to see this for a few months really aren't we?

Yep, for sure.

 

[Dogsauce]

I wonder if increased support for independence in the last couple of polls might have come about because the prospect of another tory government isn't as unlikely as it appeared a couple of months ago?

 

[Lo Siento.]

I still expect the polls to narrow as the Labour/ Tory election reality approaches.

You reckon? There can't be that many seats where the Tories are the main challengers to Labour, can there? And an SNP MP is a good as a Labour one for keeping the Tories out...

 

[butchersapron]

You reckon? There can't be that many seats where the Tories are the main challengers to Labour, can there? And an SNP MP is a good as a Labour one for keeping the Tories out...

There is also political tradition/loyalty/etc and if one is as good as the other then why break with all that good stuff being loyal brings and is associated with? It's not always directly rational. Think how many people you know who curse labour from morn to midnight yet will vote for them next may.

 

[where to]

You reckon? There can't be that many seats where the Tories are the main challengers to Labour, can there? And an SNP MP is a good as a Labour one for keeping the Tories out...

The SNP usually get blown out the water in Westminster elections - very limited media exposure and profile. That doesn't look like being the case this year as Ukip and the SNP are a core element in this election's narrative, but its still a factor.

More relevant though will be the view that Labour will need to win more seats than the Tories to have first choice on forming government. the arithmatic is going to be complicated and if Labour play their cards right some will switch back to Labour in the very late stages of campaign. the are counter arguments to that though which the SNP can also play.

 

[where to]

what about Dugdale?

probably the most effective Labour No campaigner. excellent communicator who managed to avoid alienating Yes voters. she should be sitting back waiting for Murphy to fail but instead is going to be used as the go between from MSPs (many of whom hate Murphy) and Murphy himself. a thankless task.

i don't see Murphy letting her off the leash so her brand of Labour values (centrist Labour 'don't be mean to poor people, Tories') probably won't get much of a hearing.

I have to say I actually quite like her (more on a personal level) so she must be doing something wrong.

worth noting the second of three leadership candidates, Neil Findlay is a mining town Labour Lefty with politics probably most closely matching those of Owen Jones albeit from a different background (ie working class). Findlay talks of 'our class' - astonishing for a Labour leadership contender in 2014 - and campaigned against independence on a very solid 'class first' angle that spoke many truths. He's got ASLEF and UNISON behind him, with UNITE a shoe-in too. unlike Murphy, he's actually had a real job, and completed his education too.

 

[redsquirrel]

I wonder if increased support for independence in the last couple of polls might have come about because the prospect of another tory government isn't as unlikely as it appeared a couple of months ago?

More to do with now that there's not likely to be a referendum for a while people are basically re-interpretiing the question as "do you like the major three parties". Asking people how they'd vote in situation that isn't on the cards for the foreseeable future can give these types of response.

 

[brogdale]

Tele trying to make a big deal out of Dave not saying "never"...

David Cameron has refused to rule out a deal with Ukip if he fails to win a majority in 2015.

The Prime Minister has previously ruled out any electoral pact on which to fight the election. But he today refused to deny that he would look to Nigel Farage to prop up a minority administration, saying he would "do the right thing for Britain."

Mr Farage has said he would support a minority Tory administration if his party hold the balance of power in 2015.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/pol...nt-rule-out-Ukip-deal-in-hung-Parliament.html

But the arithmetic, based on present polling, doesn't lend any support to this being a likely possible outcome. For UKIP to have any hope of being in a position to offer such support to a (minorty) tory administration, they'd obviously have to have secured a significant number of seats themselves, and the tories would have had to have done considerably better than 2010.

Assuming UKIP really exceeded expectations, managed to break the FPTP barrier, and won a double figure seat haul, (say 12). For them to be able to extend confidence and supply, the tories would have to have won at least 314 seats of their own. That's 11 more than they got in 2010 and 8 more than they presently have.

Such a tory performance would almost certainly need them in the high 30's of % popular vote, (say 38) and for them to have about 6% margin over NuLab. All the while I'm assuming the orange tories wouldn't support the blue tories + UKIP...but maybe they would?

 

[Dogsauce]

and where would those UKIP seats come from? Not that likely they'll be taking them from anyone other than the tories.

Farage won't like too much talk of a pact with the tories as that would be fairly toxic to trad labour areas which they're supposedly targetting.

 

[brogdale]

From this week's Statesman...

Jason Cowley “Would you go into coalition with Labour?”
Nigel Farage “I’d do a deal with the Devil if it got me what I wanted.”

JC If Miliband said to you, “Look, Nigel, can I have your eight to ten MPs in the coalition and we give you an in-out referendum?” would that be enough?
NF That would depend when the referendum was, and the terms.

JC But you’re not ruling it out.
NF Of course not. There is no left and right any more. Left and right’s irrelevant.

JC So there could be a Ukip-Labour-Lib Dem rainbow coalition.
NF Sounds extremely unlikely.

JC Or a Ukip-Labour coalition.
NF Why coalition? There are other ways of doing things.

JC Tell me how. Confidence and supply?
NF Absolutely.

JC Would that suit you better?
NF To be honest, the way I look at it now, I can’t see Ukip wilfully going into formal coalition with anybody.

JC But you support Labour on confidence and supply . . .
NF Confidence motions and primary legislation of certain kinds, yes.

JC And because there’s no left and right, you’d be comfortable supporting Labour?
NF I’d be very comfortable supporting anybody that gave me an opportunity to get my country back.

Sounds like NF has been following a certain poster here?

 

[Pickman's model]

you never can tell - Tories would be desperate, might offer the world!

 

[brogdale]

Quite impressive Pickman's; that must have taken you a couple of hours?

 

[Pickman's model]

Quite impressive Pickman's; that must have taken you a couple of hours?

no, i know how to use google.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Looks like Jesus just did one of those dummy high-fives where you pull your hand away at the last minute.

 

[J Ed]

From this week's Statesman...



Sounds like NF has been following a certain poster here?

I expect NF to come out with a condemnatory statement about the Kurds within the week...

 

[brogdale]

I expect NF to come out with a condemnatory statement about the Kurds within the week...

...that references Brand's feminism...

 

[brogdale]

Numerous polls indicating that the SNP has support with the potential to gain between 30 & 40 seats, so what happens when that sort of figure is factored into the 2015 GE mix?

With the present 'state of play' shown in brackets...

PartySeats
Conservative (303) England only polling shows they'll struggle to get to 280 total...say 270

Labour (257) Under 'normal' circumstances Lab would mop up most of the 55 seats shed by the coalition parties, but with UKIP nibbling that might be closer to a gain of 50. But North of the border they stand to lose 30ish...so leaving Lab pretty much with say 280

Scottish National (6) 37 (a gain of 31)

Liberal Democrat (56) Most polling says they'll be lucky to hang onto 31

Democratic Unionist(8) 8*

Sinn Fein (5) 5*
Independent (3) 3*
Plaid Cymru (3) 3
Social Democratic & Labour Party (3) 3*
Alliance (1) 1*
Green (1) 1
Respect (1) 0
Speaker (1) 1
UK Independence Party (1) 7
Vacant (1) 0
Total number of seats 650

(* I'll keep the NI stuff the same as 2010 co I don't know enough about the politics of the province to make any other prediction.)

The only conclusion is some form of "rainbow" coalition. With SNP support or coalition Lab could get close, leaving them 9 short on 317. Whereas the vermin & LDs would fall 25 short on 301.

If this punt of mine were anywhere close, its obvious that the parties commanding the 18 NI seats will hold the balance; perhaps the pollsters should be paying more attention to how the parties there might poll?

 

[Sasaferrato]

I don't know why anyone feels that Osborne will be the next Conservative leader, he won't be.

 

[butchersapron]

Classic.

 

[danny la rouge]

I don't know why anyone feels that Osborne will be the next Conservative leader, he won't be.

Who is your money on?