The Dominic Cummings file

[killer b]

I don't think that Venn diagram looks like you think it does.

whatever - either way, I don't think there's any point in talking about the actions of large groups of people as individual moral failures - the guys who jumped off the rock, they're fucking dickheads and it's fair enough to call them dickheads. But thousands, hundreds of thousands of people packing out beaches and parks etc all over the country when they've been told it's ok to go? If that's a failure - and I'm not sure if it is, and neither are you until we get the receipts in a few weeks - then it's a political failure.

Throwing up your hands and rolling your eyes at the fecklessness of the British public is, at it's heart, the same approach as that taken by the people who at the start of the pandemic thought that there's no way we'd observe a lockdown and advocated we should let it rip instead. They were wrong. The events of this weekend are a predictable result of the rule relaxations - so if it's 'breaking down' disastrously now then it's because they relaxed the rules too quickly. There were other options.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Jenny Harries has backed Jonathan Van Tam in what he said yesterday over Cummings.

Dr Harries said she “absolutely” agreed with her colleague deputy chief medical officer Jonathan Van-Tam’s statement on Saturday that the rules are “for the benefit of all and apply to all”. She told today's Downing Street briefing: “I thought his exposure of what he felt was exactly right. “We usually say exactly the same things because we think in public health terms, and I think that’s right.

“And from my own perspective I can assure you that from a level of personal and professional integrity, I would always try and follow the rules as I know he does.

“The important thing is they are rules for all of us, and it’s really important as we go through into this next critical phase that we do follow them to the best of our abilities, and even minimise if you like, the freedoms that are there to ensure that we can very gently come out of the pandemic.

BIB - in other words stay well within the rules, not stretch them beyond what is believable, Cummings, you cunt.

Jenny Harries joins fellow experts with subtle condemnation of Dominic Cummings

Dr Harries said she “absolutely” agreed with her colleague deputy chief medical officer Jonathan Van-Tam who made his views clear on Boris Johnson's most senior aide on Saturday afternoon

www.mirror.co.uk

 

[planetgeli]

whatever - either way, I don't think there's any point in talking about the actions of large groups of people as individual moral failures - the guys who jumped off the rock, they're fucking dickheads and it's fair enough to call them dickheads. But thousands, hundreds of thousands of people packing out beaches and parks etc all over the country when they've been told it's ok to go? If that's a failure - and I'm not sure if it is, and neither are you until we get the receipts in a few weeks - then it's a political failure.

Undoubtedly it's a political failure.

However, BIB, I'm still old-fashioned enough to believe people should exercise individual agency instead of (literally) tripping over themselves to follow government edicts.

 

[killer b]

Sure - and many people are exercising their individual agency to go to the beach. There was a question about this in the press conference this evening, and the dangers they talked about were sharing cutlery, sharing cars, being very close together - Harries said specifically 'we think if you're outdoors, there is a very, very low risk of transmission'.

Maybe she's wrong - we'll find out in a few weeks. But expecting people to use their individual agency to decide the advice of the public health authorities is wrong, and that they're reckless not to think the same as you is a bit mad tbh.

 

[planetgeli]

But expecting people to use their individual agency to decide the advice of the public health authorities is wrong, and that they're reckless not to think the same as you is a bit mad tbh.

Then we'll agree to disagree. Though I'll do that without insulting your mental health.

 

[killer b]

Give over.

 

[Supine]

At the moment I'm just happy sitting in the garden admiring the half finished patio.

Still only half finished? Been busy?

 

[Pickman's model]

Still only half finished? Been busy?

He has to wait for the body before finishing it

 

[Voley]

Beaches are still safe down here, I'm pleased to say. I think we've got away with it because we're just that bit too far away for a day trip. For most people, anyhow. Newquay/Perranporth - different story I'd imagine.

Sennen/Gwynver have both had loads of room even on the Bank Holiday Monday. I'm trying Pedn Vounder tomorrow but I'm getting there early and seeing how the land lies. If it gets too crowded I'll be off.

Any further relaxing of the lockdown - ie you can stay overnight away from home - and I'll be avoiding them. The local press have been warning us about an Invasion Of The Killer Tourists for a while now but we've been lucky right at the end here so far. Once people can come and stay for a few days it might get worryingly busy out there.

 

[existentialist]

I was down by the water here this afternoon, and...nothing. Deserted. A friend tells me Llansteffan is the same.

 

[phillm]

Stay alert, control the virus, save lives” is an anagram of “Easily survives travel north to castle”.

 

[brogdale]

Nottingham, twitter informs me:



Nicely done.

 

[planetgeli]

Stay alert, control the virus, save lives” is an anagram of “Easily survives travel north to castle”.

Who is credited with that? Astoundingly good.

Edit - Tim King, Telegraph crossword compiler.
Easily survives travel north to castle absurdly leads to broken rule (4,5,7,3,5,4,5)

 

[elbows]

Jenny Harries has backed Jonathan Van Tam in what he said yesterday over Cummings.

Unlike Van-Tam, Harries has not escaped my criticisms in this pandemic. I hear she said other stupid things again today. But I'll give her some credit for this, and her and Van-Tams comments stand in contrast to the disgusting cop-out by Whitty the other day. Admittedly there are some reasons why the exact question asked of Whitty would have wound him up, but I still expected him to respond with something that underlined various public health concerns. Instead, all he was interested in making clear was how keen he was to avoid 'politics'.

 

[Schmetterling]

Hmmm; see, I interpreted Whitty’s comment about not wanting to be drawn into politics the other day to be more of a statement aimed at Johnson. When he and the other chap left Downing Street before Cummings made his statement on Monday I considered that there may have been attempts at getting them to either appear with Cummings or to speak out in his support. This could, of course, be nothing but supposition.

 

[elbows]

The sad thing is that I considered that the comments Van-Tam and Harries made were the sort of thing that people in those positions would be expected to say, without crossing the threshold of limitations imposed by their role. They are veiled criticisms that really just turn into an opportunity to underline some of their existing public health talking points. The sort of thing that often goes unnoticed, and its a sign of how little other criticism there has been from this direction that the press were able to highlight these comments by Van-Tam and Harries as if they were serious slapdowns against Cummings. For example a lot of the ministers who have defended Cummings actions would also still be prepared to use similar language about the lockdown rules being for everybody. Obviously the subtext matters and I am not saying that Van-Tam and Harries comments were meaningless, but they are both the least and the most I would expect from people in these sorts of roles.

I'd agree that its quite plausible that Vallance and Whitty refused to agree to put on the sort of performance Johnson wanted in one particular press conference, and did not participate in it for that reason. When they finally did appear some days later, I was sort of expecting something along the lines of what Van-Tam and Harries came out with, but that isnt what I got. I cannot tell you exactly what Whitty meant but I thought it was a cop-out and it was also an example of how Whitty gets when he is pissed off. He gets a bit arsey in a very Whitty way (understated but firm in places), I've seen him like this before, when Hunt was giving recent history a bashing in a committee which Whitty was getting a bit defensive in front of. I'm probably judging him a bit harshly because I know he is capable of conceding various things, sometimes in quite a timely manner, and taking opportunities to make good points. He hasnt done that for me during this Cummings shit, and I'm not pleased. But I dont rule out the possibility that more of these figures may now feel compelled to repeat the Van-Tam type line in the days ahead. Actually we seem to be reaching a stage where I think it would be helpful for at least one face of this pandemic to break ranks and stomp off in disgust at the way things are being handled in this phase, but I dont really expect it because generally you dont tend to get put in those sorts of roles if there is much risk you will behave in that way.

 

[elbows]

I may as well stick the appropriate bit of video in here before concluding my rant.



I think the reason I was disgusted is that there was an opportunity there to point out that it was not a wholly political matter, there were very real public health messages involved, to do with peoples adherence to lockdown, sending the right messages etc. Vallance left an especially slimy trail with his comments at the very end of that clip but that hardly surprised me, I have disliked him from the first time I heard him speak at an early press conference.

 

[elbows]

I mean, the politics they should avoid is party politics. But the politics of public health, of communication, of lockdowns etc, thats very much part of their role, even if people try to pretend otherwise. They abdicated responsibility on that front and hiding behind the notion of politics in general being some separate thing from them and their roles is pathetic.

 

[BristolEcho]

I mean, the politics they should avoid is party politics. But the politics of public health, of communication, of lockdowns etc, thats very much part of their role, even if people try to pretend otherwise. They abdicated responsibility on that front and hiding behind the notion of politics in general being some separate thing from them and their roles is pathetic.

Exactly. The ending of lockdown is affected by politics in itself. You can't really say you don't want to get involved in politics as it's involved with everything.

 

[brogdale]

Exactly. The ending of lockdown is affected by politics in itself. You can't really say you don't want to get involved in politics as it's involved with everything.

or when you're taking the Queen's shilling partly on the basis of advising the politicians making the public health decisions.

 

[phillm]

I may as well stick the appropriate bit of video in here before concluding my rant.



I think the reason I was disgusted is that there was an opportunity there to point out that it was not a wholly political matter, there were very real public health messages involved, to do with peoples adherence to lockdown, sending the right messages etc. Vallance left an especially slimy trail with his comments at the very end of that clip but that hardly surprised me, I have disliked him from the first time I heard him speak at an early press conference.

They both earned their peerages right there.

 

[elbows]

They both earned their peerages right there.

Sir Patrick Vallance is already a knight bachelor.

Whitty has probably earned some new puns along the lines of fuck whitty.

 

[phillm]

Sir Patrick Vallance is already a knight bachelor.

Whitty has probably earned some new puns along the lines of fuck whitty.

Had to look that up also known as the Royal Ordure of Wank.

Knight Bachelor - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Supine]

I may as well stick the appropriate bit of video in here before concluding my rant.



I think the reason I was disgusted is that there was an opportunity there to point out that it was not a wholly political matter, there were very real public health messages involved, to do with peoples adherence to lockdown, sending the right messages etc. Vallance left an especially slimy trail with his comments at the very end of that clip but that hardly surprised me, I have disliked him from the first time I heard him speak at an early press conference.

I think you're out of order for turning on the UK scientists tbh (just imho).

They have two really important jobs at the moment 1. Their day jobs - the science and 2. The politics - standing next to Boris or whoever.

It's an amazingly difficult job I'd imagine. From what I can see the science is standing up well but the politicians are starting to fuck up by moving away from that and unlocking earlier than recommended.

That's on Boris not the scientists.

 

[elbows]

I wasnt swayed by such appeals to believe in the wisdom of the authorities back when we were first sleepwalking into a disaster with this pandemic, so I'm hardly about to do so now am I? It was quite possibly you that caused me to rant about deference being dead, and that was months ago. Dont confuse me with someone who turned on UK scientists recently. My stance was always more complicated than that, but it certainly did not involve trusting everything to their hands from the very start.

This pandemic is a none too subtle guide as to some of the reasons why centralised authority, the sorts of roles and formats of decision making that are favoured in this country are shit. Top down bollocks. Laughable appeals to maintain faith in such things carry no credibility with me. Nor should they seem credible to anybody else from round these parts. Because this forum demonstrated quite well what is possible if a far broader approach is taken, one that values far wider and less formal forms of input. Even if absolutely all of my own posts during this pandemic never happened, other people on this very forum figured out the timing of our first epidemic wave with a far better degree of accuracy than SAGE managed. The publicly accessible sources of data gave a better picture of where we were relative to Italy than SAGE and their data sources managed. And so we were treated to the spectacle of people on this forum making accurate statements about how many days and weeks we were behind Italy, well before before Vallance and others came out with totally wrong estimates of their own. Estimates it took weeks to correct. We didnt have to wait for this to become distant history before being able to judge some of this stuff.

 

[Humberto]

Sorry to be the one who interrupts, but this Cummings guy is a fucking loon. No one sane is that confident in their ability and 'predictions'. And I know it's elbows here doing the hard work and nailing down the facts as best as any of us, but the statistic is, whilst we point and frown at America, that Britain has more per capita deaths than America.

COVID-19 deaths per capita by country | Statista

COVID deaths worldwide were highest in Peru, topping a list that compares deaths per million in 210 countries worldwide.

www.statista.com

I know it's more complex than that but I'm really pissed off with these grinning shitheads now.

 

[Humberto]

Anyway, I might be wrong but that's what is worrying me.

 

[elbows]

Also, there is plenty of blame to go around, I'm not trying to stick it all one a few peoples shoulders. Vallance gave me plenty of reasons to complain from the start, I've not criticised Whitty very much till now but his comments the other day were not what I wanted or expected from him.

The SAGE minutes are not full minutes in that it is not really possible to identify the opinions of individuals from them. So they are limited in some ways that make it harder for me to unpick things. All the same, some things are apparent. Some limitations and failures of orthodox thoughts across a number of disciplies are occasionally on display. But what is most obvious from reading between the lines of the various documents once into the very difficult period in early March, is the extent to which they were completely hamstrung by failures of data collection, testing, etc. Within the confines of the system they were operating in, I doubt whether individuals at the top of their game could have necessarily done much better. I expect that any future inquiry will easily find that Public Health England was not fit for the purposes it was needed for in this pandemic. Its painful reading some of the earlier minutes, when SAGE realised that the new world after the u-turn needed all sorts of testing on a big scale and quickly, and how they thought they were actually going to get some of that from PHE. As time goes on, despite the highly sanitised nature of the minutes, it is possible to see the penny drop and the frustration set in. I expect there is plenty more frustration within SAGE these days too, as similar phenomenon will no doubt be happening again with regards things like the contact tracing system, and the ongoing reality of the testing.

So yeah, there are very definite limits to how much blame I am directing at any one person. There were all sorts of systemic issues and power, resources and responsibility was not genuinely spread around at all the different levels of society and government over many years leading up to this pandemic, and that isnt the fault of a Vallance or a Whitty. Still they are to extent products of the systems and priorities of this country over many decades, and I cannot say where the best place for them would have been if we'd had a sane, well spread system in the foundations of this countries government and public health institutions. I'd likely have valued their opinion, but as with all opinions including my own, I'd value it more when tested by various means including criticism without fear or favour.

 

[xenon]

Have to say I find some of the last couple of pages uncomfortable reading. I really think it is understandable that folk want to get out to the beach etc. after the last months, especially in weather like this. Also worth remembering that not everyone is as 'switched on' to the news cycle etc as some of us on here may be? And, it has to be said that much of the state messaging has been less than clear.

What worries me about the (entirely understandable) tendency to judge the beach-goers is that Johnson deliberately fore-warned of his Monday changes to lockdown, pretty much ensuring that such scenes & reactions (?) would occur. It does help them to paint the second spike as the fault of the people.

Well I don't know about angry exactly but I'm quite comfortable in calling them fuckwits. It's obvious the beaches would be crowded. The facilities aren't open. What did they think would happen, they'd each get a bit of quiet beach to themselves, could piss where they wanted, probably have a nice swim and if get into trouble, the RNLI, would rescue them with 2M poles.

And yeah, we've all been stuck in doors during this weather. I bet some of these twats have access to gardens though. They've got cars, which is more than many others. SO, nah, fuckem.

 

[elbows]

Sorry to be the one who interrupts, but this Cummings guy is a fucking loon. No one sane is that confident in their ability and 'predictions'. And I know it's elbows here doing the hard work and nailing down the facts as best as any of us, but the statistic is, whilst we point and frown at America, that Britain has more per capita deaths than America.

COVID-19 deaths per capita by country | Statista

COVID deaths worldwide were highest in Peru, topping a list that compares deaths per million in 210 countries worldwide.

www.statista.com

I know it's more complex than that but I'm really pissed off with these grinning shitheads now.

Yeah I'm not big on pointing and frowning at the USA too much because its such a cliched European thing to do, there is a longstanding and all too often default sneering from on high stance. A stance for which many occasions where it seems quite appropriate do present themselves, but I try to resist at least a little bit all the same.

I've not been that keen to look at per capita figures for this pandemic yet. One of the reasons why is also probably a main reason why the UK stands out even amongst countries that have had a bad death toll from this pandemic. In many of those countries the story of their first epidemic waves has very much been a regional story. eg regions like Lombardy in Italy tend to dominate all sorts of pandemic stats there, and I could say the same about Madrid and a bunch of other regions and indeed certain cities and states in the USA.

Well, the UK picture is quite different, we managed to get epidemics all across the regions and four nations. Only the South West really sticks out as having suffered a notably different scale of things (less than other regions), although there are plenty of timing and curve shape differences between regions too. And much of the real stories of the epidemics would require us to zoom in another level or two.

The spread far and wide around the UK is not going to be the only reason our numbers suck so badly compared to most others. Theres a lot still to learn about this disease, and there are the various other government failings including some terrible timing fuckups which played their part. But I still think its important to point this aspect out, and it might make a difference to what happens in this country compared to others in future too.