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The Brexit process

Brexit is being shaped by big business and banks while the interests of ordinary people are being drowned out, a damning new report has concluded.

The analysis of lobbyist activity exposes how big corporations and the finance sector are dominating back-room discussions with negotiators in both London and Brussels.
Brexit negotiations dominated by corporate lobbyists

Not a great surprise perhaps, but it's interesting to see the evidence emerging.

Analysis of the UK team’s meetings show they were dominated by the finance sector, which concerned 46 gatherings at Dexeu in six months. Goldman Sachs - an investment bank heavily criticised for its actions during the financial crash - attended four meetings.

HSBC, which recently paid £28 million to Swiss authorities to close a money-laundering case, attended six and lobby group TheCityUK was at eight.

In contrast, the UK’s two biggest trade unions, Uniteand Unison, which together represent some 2.7 million working people, had one meeting each – the same number as attended by think tanks like Policy Exchange and the Legatum Institute, unknown to the wider public.

Other sectors which had meetings included food and agriculture, whose representatives were at 17 meetings; infrastructure industry lobbyists, at 13; the defence industry, at eight, and tech groups, at seven.

The Federation of Small Businesses was present at five “round tables” with other groups but had no one-on-one meetings, despite small firms making up 99 per cent of the UK’s private sector.

Mr Davis did hold two meetings in quick succession with Arbuthnot Banking group, which has donated £267,470 to his party since 2009.

The cabinet minister himself accepted £50,000 from Arbuthnot in 2005 to fund his unsuccessful leadership campaign against former prime minister David Cameron.
 
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On The Irish Economy Could Ireland credibly threaten to veto an EU-UK trade deal?
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Yes, we want a close trading relationship with our nearest neighbour, but right now that neighbour is planning to (a) reimpose a border on our island, and (b) sign trade deals that threaten to displace Irish exporters from its market. In my view, the ESRI should not only be modelling the impact of various EU-UK trade deal scenarios on the Irish economy; it should also be modelling the impact on Ireland of the trade deals that the UK may eventually sign with the rest of the world. Opportunity costs are what matter when making decisions, and the net opportunity cost to Ireland of a no-deal Brexit may be smaller than what we sometimes assume, if the alternative involves the UK following through on its current plans. I’d be interested to know how large it would actually be.

And maybe the Irish government should consider playing hard ball in its continuing attempts to avoid the reimposition of a border in Ireland.
Points out the UK's best EU buddy the RoI may have only a little more to lose by being less than helpful to its largest trading partner. Sounds rather bolder than Dublin usually is to me but you can see things steadily souring. Comes just as Corbyn's Labour seems to be getting cold feet about flouncing out of the Customs Union without a proper trade deal in place.

I did think the EU might cynically use the Irish border as a bargaining chip but it turns out that's the way a careless London seems to be choosing to play an increasingly weak hand. Liam Fox is clearly more interested in giving the rest of the world tariff free access to British markets ASAP. What this process may do to what were historically very good Irish-British relations is one of the saddest things about it.
 
Small firms make up 99% of the uks private sector? Sounds very wrong to me....
doesn't really matter in terms of the subject at hand, but still.
By number of people employed that's probably true or at least close, 40% of companies are single person outfits eg plumbers, builders, single vehicle hauliers etc (plus the scam that is the likes of Deliveroo and Uber)
I understand why big biz is sticking its oar in since they stand to lose shitloads of cash if we get the wrong deal (pretty much guaranteed with this shower doing the negotiations) and nothing panics them like a threat to the bottom line.
 
Small Business Statistics

SMEs and the Economy:
  • Small businesses accounted for 99.3% of all private sector businesses at the start of 2016 and 99.9% were small or medium-sized (SMEs).
  • Total employment in SMEs was 15.7 million; 60% of all private sector employment in the UK.
  • The combined annual turnover of SMEs was £1.8 trillion, 47% of all private sector turnover in the UK.
 
EU Brexit negotiator: UK demands on single market are impossible - Politics live

all kinds of shit coming up here from both sides.In light of Mayhems announcement that she will be on the throne for ALL ETERNITY & what seems to be our flaccid, weak and shoddy pissing about so far , I think we will jump ship from these negotiations sooner rather than later. Like in September.

I have no idea what this means or how it will impact us but it is unlikely to be good. Not as good as this September anyway

 
As Riklet/Yanis point out the negotiations were always going to be obstructive from the EU side - its not in their interest to make this easy - but I'm now wondering if EU negotiators sense that the Tories are divided internally and on the way out electorally and banking on Corbyns Labour taking over, with their now semi-official soft brexit position.
?
who knows - can only speculate
 
I find it hard to believe that the tories have any long term game strategy outside purposefully slowing things down & fucking it up and blaming the EU for their intransigence. Even that weak plan requires an further plan as to what they do when it all goes according to plan.
 
Small Business Statistics

SMEs and the Economy:
  • Small businesses accounted for 99.3% of all private sector businesses at the start of 2016 and 99.9% were small or medium-sized (SMEs).
  • Total employment in SMEs was 15.7 million; 60% of all private sector employment in the UK.
  • The combined annual turnover of SMEs was £1.8 trillion, 47% of all private sector turnover in the UK.


How many of these small businesses are those employed as a tax dodge by larger businesses? The uber drivers, the bt contractors, the McDonalds franchises?
 
I find it hard to believe that the tories have any long term game strategy outside purposefully slowing things down & fucking it up and blaming the EU for their intransigence. Even that weak plan requires an further plan as to what they do when it all goes according to plan.
Seems to me the Tory plan remains cake and eat it. No idea what their fall back position is though
 
In light of Mayhems announcement that she will be on the throne for ALL ETERNITY
Yeah right and I will come home tomorrow to find Emma Watson sprawled on my bed wearing only a smile, it's not actually impossible since it doesn't break the laws of physics but it ain't going to happen, there is probably only slightly more chance than Mayhem is going to be PM a year from now.
 
Seems to me the Tory plan remains cake and eat it. No idea what their fall back position is though

Suspect that is the fallback position. It's like they're ordering a pizza, but no-one can agree and no-one has the authority to make a decision, so the default is phoning Casa Barnier and just asking for all the toppings.
 
short term, otherwise things turn out remarkably similar to how they would have been anyway.. And then we have a problem

They are going to be similar anyway. Seems to me the only sticking point is free movement. Hopefully, at some point, a politician will have the nerve to point out that the ECHR isn't part of the EU and we won't be pulling out of it.
 
short term, otherwise things turn out remarkably similar to how they would have been anyway.. And then we have a problem

Yes, but nothing on the scale of the problem we will have if things turn out to be remarkably different. I don't think there's anyone now in a position of influence who doesn't understand that. The Tory grassroots are an obstacle, but I don't think they are a factor.
 
They are going to be similar anyway. Seems to me the only sticking point is free movement. Hopefully, at some point, a politician will have the nerve to point out that the ECHR isn't part of the EU and we won't be pulling out of it.

Too close. Fulcrums and leverage.
 
Yes, but nothing on the scale of the problem we will have if things turn out to be remarkably different. I don't think there's anyone now in a position of influence who doesn't understand that. The Tory grassroots are an obstacle, but I don't think they are a factor.

Disagree. But have always argued from an avoid hard brexit position.
 
Barnier is an odious parasitical cunt! What is even more amusing is that he probably lacks the sense of self awareness to even see how it is because of him and people like him, always talking down to people with their threats, blackmail and hectoring, that so many are put off the EU in the first instance.

It is a weird approach to take. I assume he's trying to demonstrate to other groups who want a vote on the EU membership that there is some abyss that countries fall into if or when they leave the EU. I tend to think at the end of the day it'll just boil down to economics and if both sides want to fuck up a trading relationship which makes the UK the 2nd largest market for the EU and where the EU is almost half our exports.
 
It is a weird approach to take. I assume he's trying to demonstrate to other groups who want a vote on the EU membership that there is some abyss that countries fall into if or when they leave the EU. I tend to think at the end of the day it'll just boil down to economics and if both sides want to fuck up a trading relationship which makes the UK the 2nd largest market for the EU and where the EU is almost half our exports.
You've seen what they're prepared to do to Greece. Being as the government's said all sorts of things about make Britain global again I wouldn't be surprised if the EU simply said go on then
 
You've seen what they're prepared to do to Greece. Being as the government's said all sorts of things about make Britain global again I wouldn't be surprised if the EU simply said go on then

Well, they seem to want to fuck them over even harder. First by returning refugees to Greece from other EU countries:

EU states begin returning refugees to Greece as German reunions slow

Then Germany seems keen to derail the deal between the EU and Turkey to slow the flow.
 
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