Well, I think overall things look bleak. Just because you have eyes doesn't mean you can see and, alas, it seems like the centre of gravity lies with the: 'let's just get on with building the party' type. They will take the lines fed them from Alex and soothe over their doubts. Especially if they see light at the end of the tunnel in the hope that by concentrating on the bedroom tax and anti-racism they can build up their branch. For such members, there probably is a feeling that the CC made mistakes: it's hard to deny the ring of truth in the gritty detail supplied by Hannah and Viv. But they want to move on, and do so in the manner that they've become used to over the past decades. What this kind of member doesn't appreciate yet is how hard it will be in the future to develop the kind of periphery the SWP are used to working with. Telling potential allies who are concerned that the SWP might be rape apologists that the real problem was 'movementism' is going to sound appalling. The middle ground don't see it at the moment, but they are heading for a long cold twilight of political activity, with annual bracing conferences (we grew again, even though our paid membership dropped) filled with chirpy contributions from members in small towns who 'got out there' and showed the possibilities.
There is still time for a twist or two in the story and one dynamic that might change things is that the more rabid supporters of MS might go in search of mass expulsions and even attempt his rehabilitation. In other words, they might inadvertently create what the opposition need, a very specific demand that has the leverage to unseat the CC. Pat's motion is closest to this. From his opening piece it seems that Alex is going to resist the demand that an apology be written to the two women and that position carries risks, because the middle ground won't be so unyielding on that idea.