Sweden and coronavirus

[elbows]

Much that we were previously told was impossible or unrealistic was quickly wheeled out in response to the pandemic & lockdown.

I doubt thats the last we've seen of this phenomenon. Even the tories are going to have to end up doing more of this in future. In the meantime, I have nothing but ridicule for those who insist we will remain bound by exactly the same rules and lies that were dominant for the last 40+ years. The world moves on, it will be messy with few guarantees but it most certainly will not be limited by all the old norms. Some of the economic lies about what is possible are dead, but its no surprise that many havent noticed this yet or refuse to believe it. In the meantime I wont spend too much time arguing about this, I will just watch and wait.

 

[Aladdin]

Irrelevant. Healthcare isn't provided anywhere "at all costs". What's under discussion here are the consequential costs of different methods of dealing with the virus.

Yes...but "cost" in what sense?
Money ? Or Life and death?

 

[Aladdin]

Much that we were previously told was impossible or unrealistic was quickly wheeled out in response to the pandemic & lockdown.

I doubt thats the last we've seen of this phenomenon. Even the tories are going to have to end up doing more of this in future. In the meantime, I have nothing but ridicule for those who insist we will remain bound by exactly the same rules and lies that were dominant for the last 40+ years. The world moves on, it will be messy with few guarantees but it most certainly will not be limited by all the old norms. Some of the economic lies about what is possible are dead, but its no surprise that many havent noticed this yet or refuse to believe it. In the meantime I wont spend too much time arguing about this, I will just watch and wait.

I was amazed at the €350 a week brought in by Gov here for those who were out of work due to covid19.
Some people were better off on it.

 

[Spymaster]

Yes...but "cost" in what sense?
Money ? Or Life and death?

Both of course.

 

[Athos]

If the question is "if a different approach would prove more effective should it be implemented?" then my answer is yes.

No, the question wasn't that. It was specifically whether the measures I proposed should be adopted. Should they, in your opinion? If not, why not?

 

[Spymaster]

No, the question wasn't that. It was specifically whether the measures I proposed should be adopted. Should they, in your opinion? If not, why not?

Dunno. It'll never happen though so it doesn't matter.

 

[Athos]

Dunno.

Fair enough.

ETA:

It'll never happen though so it doesn't matter.

I bet you'd have said the same about the furlough scheme, mortgage holidays, and ban on evictions six months ago.

 

[co-op]

I bet you'd have said the same about the furlough scheme, mortgage holidays, and ban on evictions six months ago.

Of course he would, so would anyone. The idea that "normal" means the same thing now as it meant even 8 weeks ago is ridiculous. What the new normal will be is up for grabs & who nows but the one thing we can be sure of, this is a huge global disruption, it dwarfs anything else in our lifetimes.

Spymaster is completely out on a limb here - it takes a little psychic energy to get your head around what's going on, or maybe he's just indulging in a little light lockdown trolling as he is occasionally want to do?

 

[Spymaster]

Spymaster is completely out on a limb here ...

That there won't be a massive redistribution of wealth as a government response to the pandemic? Unless you consider tax hikes to be those redistributions, of course there won't be. Even Athos agreed with that.

 

[Athos]

That there won't be a massive redistribution of wealth as a government response to the pandemic? Unless you consider tax hikes to be those redistributions, of course there won't be. Even Athos agreed with that.

I agree that, sadly, it's unlikely. But not impossible. And certainly not something we should give up on.

 

[deeyo]

Redistibution of wealth is happening continously, and things move faster in crisis. Whether its pouring money into optimistic vaccine research and production, big companies paying dividends to calm the shareholders, then asking for state support not to let workers go, chinese capital moving in on the shaky western markets, most of it tends to redistrbute upwards, heading for the scum.
Sweden has for some thirty years sold out public property, real estate, land, pharmacies, etc, engaging in almost unprecendented exprimentation with profit driven healthcare and education. Stockholm has been foremost in this process, with the scandals around the 'new karolinska hospital' as the brightest shining jewel in a staggering expensive collection. To what extent the neoliberal playground adventures has contributed to excess mortality in the current crisis remains to be seen.

With a stronger workers movement this could be an opportunity to really try to redistribute money and power, as things stand i think we might have to settle with less, for instance with making sure that sufficient funds are directed towards elderly care and that any fast-tracked vaccines are properly tested before distribution.

https://www.impgroup.org/uploads/papers/9903.pdf

Economists on 'the new karolinska case'

The Cutter Incident: How America's First Polio Vaccine Led to a Growing Vaccine Crisis - PMC

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

 

[Spymaster]

With a stronger workers movement this could be an opportunity to really try to redistribute money and power, as things stand i think we might have to settle with less, for instance with making sure that sufficient funds are directed towards elderly care and that any fast-tracked vaccines are properly tested before distribution.

But that’s no more the redistribution of wealth than the tax increases I mentioned yesterday. Certainly nowhere near the alternatives to government borrowing to pay furloughed wages that Athos was suggesting.

 

[co-op]

That there won't be a massive redistribution of wealth as a government response to the pandemic? Unless you consider tax hikes to be those redistributions, of course there won't be. Even Athos agreed with that.

Well I think you might be shifting ground a little bit here - you said there won't be huge increases in govt spending (which will essentially be based on "printing money" as you put it) and that generally the old rules will apply - I think both of those are wrong.

It's no great insight to think that this particular govt isn't going to use this crisis as an opportunity to redistribute wealth, so I agree with that.

But this is all (a) off topic and (b) you-said-no-I-didn't so, meh.

 

[Spymaster]

Well I think you might be shifting ground a little bit here - you said there won't be huge increases in govt spending (which will essentially be based on "printing money" as you put it) and that generally the old rules will apply - I think both of those are wrong.

That's not what I meant, so apologies if it came across that way. What I meant was simply that any increase in government spending will not be funded by a mass redistribution of wealth. Re-reading my posts I actually think that's clear.

It's no great insight to think that this particular govt isn't going to use this crisis as an opportunity to redistribute wealth, so I agree with that.

Well quite. This is why I've been at a loss to understand why Athos has consistently laboured the point.

 

[Athos]

Well quite. This is why I've been at a loss to understand why Athos has consistently laboured the point.

For those without the imagination to see the difference between what this government is likely to do and what a government could choose to do.

 

[Spymaster]

For those without the imagination to see the difference between what this government is likely to do and what a government could choose to do.

Yeah, yeah. Let’s move on.

 

[cupid_stunt]

In an attempt to drag the thread back on topic, this is an interesting read.

The predecessor of Sweden’s state epidemiologist has broken her silence on the country’s controversial coronavirus strategy, saying she now believes the authorities should have put in place tougher restrictions in the early stages of the pandemic to bring the virus under control. Annika Linde, who oversaw Sweden’s response to swine flu and Sars as state epidemiologist from 2005 to 2013, had until now expressed support for her country’s approach under her successor, Anders Tegnell.

But she has now become the first member of the public health establishment to break ranks, saying she has changed her mind as a result of Sweden’s relatively high death toll compared with that of its neighbours, Denmark, Norway, and Finland. “I think that we needed more time for preparedness. If we had shut down very early ... we would have been able, during that time, to make sure that we had what was necessary to protect the vulnerable,” Linde told the Observer.

Sweden 'wrong' not to shut down, says former state epidemiologist

Scientist who oversaw the response to Sars says country has failed the vulnerable

www.theguardian.com

 

[Athos]

Yeah, yeah. Let’s move on.

I will. If only to save your blushes.

 

[Spymaster]

I will. If only to save your bushes.

My bushes will be grateful.

 

[Athos]

My bushes will be grateful.

 

[co-op]

Interesting take on maybe why the Swedes are doing what they're doing.

Why Sweden is unlikely to make a U-turn on its controversial Covid-19 strategy | Tae Hoon Kim

For a foreigner living here, the country’s approach to handling the crisis is worrying, but it is partly explained by its history, says academic Tae Hoon Kim

www.theguardian.com

 

[deeyo]

This might be of interest:

Radio Sweden

Your best source of news from Sweden.

sverigesradio.se

Swedish national radio in english.
Lot of corona-related stuff, an interview with the norweigian director of infection control i found interesting. 'Nordic concern...'

 

[Sasaferrato]

My bushes will be grateful.

Bushes? Are you diphallic?

 

[MrCurry]

Sweden highest again in the deaths per million population stats over the last week, Brazil in second and UK now 4th or 5th if I’m reading that graph right. Stats are from Free to read: Coronavirus tracked: has the epidemic peaked near you?

For a country with a very low pop density, an unusually high number of single person dwellings and a well educated population who should be able to grasp the need for precautions, this is utterly shit. I really hope Anders Tegnell, Stefan Löfven and everyone who abdicated their responsibility to influence the country’s approach to handling this crisis are held to account.

I added up some numbers for an up to date comparison of deaths in Sweden, versus neighbouring countries:

Sweden 4420 deaths / population 10 million

Combined total of Finland+Norway+Denmark+Iceland:
deaths 1123 / population 17 million

Don’t look too clever, does it!?

 

[cupid_stunt]

The other Nordic countries are not happy with Sweden

Sweden's divisive lockdown policy could see it excluded from Nordic 'travel bubble'

As countries around Europe start to ease border controls, some are concerned about the risk of welcoming back Swedish travellers

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[co-op]

https://www.thelocal.no/20200522/norway-could-have-controlled-infection-without-lockdown-health-chief

The Head of Norway's Institute for Public Health saying that lockdown looks like a mistake.

"Our assessment now....is that we could possibly have achieved the same effects and avoided some of the unfortunate impacts by not locking down, but by instead keeping open but with infection control measures," she said.

The institute reported at the start of this month that the reproduction number had already fallen to as low as 1.1 even before the lockdown was announced on March 12.

This suggests that it would not have required heavy-handed measures such as school closures to bring it below 1 and so push the number of infected people in the country into a gradual decline.

 

[redsquirrel]

Piece on Sweden's approach

All of these appear to weigh in favour of the lockdown having been the correct course of action, and against a rapid end to the lockdown — until we have appropriate measures in place to ensure we do not get a second uncontrollable outbreak of the disease.

But, even without a mandatory lockdown that kept people in their homes and closed businesses, many Swedes engaged in voluntary, individual distancing. For example, Swedes are travelling much less now than in normal times. The Citymapper mobility index, compiled by a popular journey-planning app, compares the percentage of users planning trips using the app compared to normal. A comparison of Copenhagen and Stockholm, the epicentres of the epidemic in Denmark and Sweden, suggests a very pronounced reduction in travel starting roughly on the 13th of March in both cities: down to around 10-15% of normal in Copenhagen, and around 30-35% in Stockholm.

All of this suggests that the degree of distancing that people will voluntarily do has turned out to be far greater than most analysts realised.

And with this large degree of voluntary distancing, Sweden has not done nearly as badly as many had feared. Does this mean Sweden has done well? Is Sweden a model that other countries could have followed, or could follow now by ending its own lockdowns suddenly?

Probably not. Sweden has fallen between two stools: because of voluntary social distancing, it has not achieved herd immunity, or anything like it, but it also has not suppressed the virus as countries that have had a lockdown have. According to a recent study by Sweden’s public health agency, only 7.3% of the population of Stockholm has Covid-19 antibodies (compared to a reported 17% of Londoners, for example), and only 15% at a Stockholm hospital (which can act as an upper bound, since healthcare workers are most likely to be exposed to the virus).

(Note I'm posting this for interest, I don't claim to (dis)agree with it's conclusions)

 

[Teaboy]

https://www.thelocal.no/20200522/norway-could-have-controlled-infection-without-lockdown-health-chief

The Head of Norway's Institute for Public Health saying that lockdown looks like a mistake.

Of all European countries Norway was probably best placed to do a 'South Korea'. Largely isolated from the rest of Europe, easy border control and a decent healthcare system with very high wealth and a small, low density population. Its no wonder that some are questioning whether things could have been done differently. That's a healthy debate to have in a democracy. Though, a lot of those things also apply in Sweden albeit to a lesser degree.

 

[co-op]

That's a healthy debate to have in a democracy.

Which is one of the points that has worried me about this issue in the UK. Because we have a govt that ?most of us dislike and distrust, a situation built on top of a foundation of deeper distrust and dissatisfaction evidenced by things like the political/electoral chaos of the unexpected over the last 5 years we are now at a point where "healthy debate" is getting hard to have. I haven't argued for the Swedish approach, I have wondered whether the full-on lockdown makes sense but I've had some pretty emotional and angry reactions on this thread to that question. The whole schools opening question seems to me to be a really reasonable question to ask but it looks to me as if this is now almost an impossible discussion in the UK.

 

[elbows]

Its perfectly possible to have a schools discussion, but it needs to be backed by increasing confidence that the government are doing some things right that they were not doing right in the past.

A lot of the issues people feel when coming out of lockdown are all about sentiment, and even if the government got a grip on everything it will take time for sentiment to improve.

I will take issue with anybody who says stupid things about the safety of teachers and pupils at this time. However I am aware that the government had to start the conversation at some point, so may as well start early because they know it will actually take a long time for numbers to return to anything like normal. The longer they waited before announcing any school returns, the longer the discussion with unions etc would take to even begin. So I dont really blame them for making a start, but their handling of other things in the past means it will be an especially slow process.

As for Norway, I already gave some thoughts on that in another thread last night. Whatever is said now, countries mostly cannot tell which of the measures they implemented had which effect, because many things were dont at the same time or very close together. Certainly I think its understandable that countries that did various things well in the early stages might look back and wonder why they still felt it necessary to whack on the emergency handbrake in the form of lockdown. Given the stakes, I'm still glad they erred on the side of caution, and I certainly cannot look at what happened in countries like the UK and think 'oh that lockdown was pointless'. Lockdown is after all a sign of other failures, a last resort, not a gold standard to aim for. And, although I've forgotten exactly what name people gave it, it was anticipated that there would be a paradox whereby successful results in countries that locked down early in their epidemics would lead to accusations that the measures taken were excessive and unnecessary. Perceptions like this often drive me crazy.