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Political polling

kabbes said:
It's voting intention though, isn't it? Not historic voting. So 3% of people that intend to vote for UKIP don't think it's a good idea for the UK to leave the EU.
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True, I suppose there will always be a % who might be confused/not fully understand or just outright blurt something/anything out in response to questioning. Wouldn't read too much into those small numbers tbh.
That graph is all about the Red/Green proportions.
 
mather said:
I am surprised that the percentage of those who think it's a failure is not higher, to be honest.
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Failure would conjure up images of fewer lines, fewer services, fewer passengers, a lack of station renovation, frequent accidents etc, none of which are currently in evidence.
 
kabbes said:
It's voting intention though, isn't it? Not historic voting. So 3% of people that intend to vote for UKIP don't think it's a good idea for the UK to leave the EU.
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Maybe they liked the UKIP policy requiring that all taxi drivers wear a shirt and tie.
 
brogdale said:
...Anyone else got the stomach for this?...
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Yeah, i have.

Firstly i think that the polling will be interesting for us wonks to watch - i think the election campaign is going to be choppy waters, and it'll be interesting to see how that translates in the polling.

Secondly, while i know what i think will happen - based on what i can see in the polls and what I've heard on the doorsteps - i have a gut feeling (see what i did there..?) that things will go rather differently, and that it will all be a lot closer than the polling and commentary suggests.

(I hope no one noticed my two-bites-at-the-cherry election prediction there, I'm hoping to improve my record of political forecasting...)
 
kebabking said:
Yeah, i have.

Firstly i think that the polling will be interesting for us wonks to watch - i think the election campaign is going to be choppy waters, and it'll be interesting to see how that translates in the polling.

Secondly, while i know what i think will happen - based on what i can see in the polls and what I've heard on the doorsteps - i have a gut feeling (see what i did there..?) that things will go rather differently, and that it will all be a lot closer than the polling and commentary suggests.

(I hope no one noticed my two-bites-at-the-cherry election prediction there, I'm hoping to improve my record of political forecasting...)
Click to expand...

Personally I hope that I'm as wrong as I was about 2015, Brexit and Trump...
 
Before the 2015 election I said on here that the Tories would win as they were being understated in the polls.

I've yet to be convinced that any of the pollsters have implemented methodology changes to fully account for the simple fact, observable over decades of general elections, that Tory voters don't like doing surveys as much as Labour supporters do.
 
I don't think the Tories will do as well as everybody thinks. Corbyn & co need to go at this hammer & tongs every day until polling day though & make the tories look like the anti-christ.
 
OK, so maybe this will have to be the start of campaign benchmark...now that they've actually got to 50%?

 
SaskiaJayne said:
I don't think the Tories will do as well as everybody thinks. Corbyn & co need to go at this hammer & tongs every day until polling day though & make the tories look like the anti-christ.
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That won't work though, because he needs to do much better than Milliband, and some people who voted for Milliband don't want to vote for Corbyn. Meanwhile the Tories are hoovering up plenty of UKIP votes.

Presumably some Milliband voters will go Lib, and others will stay at home.
 
The Boy said:
Well, yes.

Panelbase poll, BTW. Numbers to be published. The seat guestimates from prof curtice.
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There's been no phone-based polling yet with IpsosMORI not due till next week; that might show some difference? I'd have thought that the threat to the pensions triple-lock might also have some impact...but who knows? Even within the online polling there appears to be quite some varience:-



I assume it's because they've all tweaked their methodologies slightly differently following the 2015 failures.
 
TheHoodedClaw said:
And the Tory vote-share moving back to something like what it actually is in Scotland (28% tho!)
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Yes, the Tories were always there.

And the Scottish Tories have cleverly positioned themselves as the Unionist party. Even before the GE was called, they were fighting the local government elections on an anti-independence ticket (despite it being nothing to do with local government). It seems to have worked: even the Labour Unionists are leaving Labour for the Tories now that Labour is seen as an irrelevance in Scotland.

And, yes, a small Unionist contingent who voted SNP (but not Yes) also seem to have left the SNP.

So, if this poll is accurate, the SNP may lose a handful of seats, which will go to the Tories. But the SNP will still have the large majority of Scottish Westminster seats. (And the fact that Holyrood voted for a second referendum will not be affected by that in any case).
 
At the moment the election in england and wales is about brexit -ukips vote amd the labour leave vote is going to mummy.(sunday murdoch says thats what tory mps call mrs may).

In scotland its about independence and labour and libdem unionists are switching to the tories.

Dont you know theres a war on.

Only Seven weeks to go and in a couple of weeks we have various locals inc full elections for welsh and scottish local government.

Its a reverse 1997 mixed up with 1983.

Normal bread and butter politics is suspended.

Blair could do no wrong in the voters eyes in 1997 and 2001 but didnt know what to do and fluffed it.

What will Mummy do ?
 
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bi0boy said:
That won't work though, because he needs to do much better than Milliband, and some people who voted for Milliband don't want to vote for Corbyn. Meanwhile the Tories are hoovering up plenty of UKIP votes.

Presumably some Milliband voters will go Lib, and others will stay at home.
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The important thing is Corbyn & co have got to avoid saying the stupid things like Milliband did. Ie the pure foot in mouth moments inviting ridicule from the popular press. So Corbyn appears to be taking the line that Tories will tax the poor & Labour will go after the tax avoiders/evaders at the top. If Labour can go in the direction of offering a brexit for working people while pushing the angle that Tories will be doing brexit for the rich by allowing US medical companies access to the NHS & pointing out trade deals with India will swap free movement from Europe with free movement from Indian sub continent etc it should be a go'er. It did not help when the other day some Labour politician ranting about tax avoidance mentioned both Starbucks & Costa Coffee unaware that Costa is a UK company owned by Whitbread & pays it's taxes. If Labour is going to get anywhere then they really, really need to engage brain before opening mouth.
 
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