Urban75 Home About Offline BrixtonBuzz Contact

Political polling

Fieldwork not just pre-May as PM, but during Labour shenanigans as well. Likely a whole lot of "settling" for those numbers to do once things look a bit more stable on both sides.
 
brogdale said:
Been some kerfuffle around the weighting (or not) on this poll, but here are the numbers IpsosMORI got for the Standard. (Fieldwork conducted before May as PM)
​
Click to expand...
10 Jul 38 30 8 15 Con +8
5 Jul 36 32 9 12 Con +4
3 Jul 37 30 8 15 Con +7
30 Jun 34 29 7 17 Con +5
26 Jun 36 32 7 15 Con +4
25 Jun 32 32 9 16 Tie
22 Jun 34 30 6 19 Con +4
17 Jun 34 30 6 18 Con +4
16 Jun 34 29 8 19 Con +5
14 Jun 35 34 9 10 Con +1
13 Jun 34 30 8 19 Con +4
13 Jun 34 33 9 14 Con +1
10 Jun 35 32 4 18 Con +3
Click to expand...
You can imagine patterns in there but its broadly similar to the month or two that preceded it.

There may be a trend of a move from UKIP to Con? Slight drop in Labour but given the turmoil in the political system it seems as if the polling is relatively stable around a Con lead of about 3-4%
 
Bit random and I doubt anyone would be interested but; I fiddled with recent polling results from here and munged them into a csv format. They can be loaded into excel or the like to have a play. I did screw up the sample sizes but I was not bothered with them anyway. You can play around and check the LD+LAB vs the CON+UKIP to see how stable the two blocks are relative to each other, get the variance for each column,

Code: 
conducted,Polling organisation/client,Sample size,Con,Lab,UKIP,Lib Dem,SNP,Green,Others,Lead,,
17 ..18 Jul,YouGov,1891,40,29,12,9,7,3,1,11,
13 ..15 Jul,ICM,2027,39,29,14,9,4,4,2,10,
13-Jul,Theresa May becomes the new Prime Minister of the United Kingdom,,,,,,,,,,,
9 ..11 Jul,Ipsos MORI,1021,36,35,8,11,5,4,1,1,
8 ..10 Jul,ICM,2025,38,30,15,8,5,4,1,8,
4 ..5 Jul,Survation/Constitutional Research Council,1008,36,32,12,9,6,-,7,4,
04-Jul,Nigel Farage stands down as leader of UK Independence Party,,,,,,,,,,,
1 ..3 Jul,ICM,1979,37,30,15,8,5,4,2,7,
28 ..30 Jun,Opinium,2006,34,29,17,7,5,4,2,5,
24 ..26 Jun,ICM/The Guardian,2001,36,32,15,7,5,5,1,4,
24 ..25 Jun,Survation/Mail on Sunday,1033,32,32,16,9,4,4,2,0,
23-Jun,United Kingdom European Union membership referendum: the UK votes to leave European Union; David Cameron announces he will resign as Prime Minister,,,,,,,,,,,
20 ..22 Jun,Opinium,3011,34,30,19,6,6,4,2,4,
14 ..17 Jun,Opinium/Observer,2006,34,30,18,6,6,4,1,4,
16-Jun,Tooting by-election; killing of MP Jo Cox, leading to a suspension of referendum campaigning until 19 June,,,,,,,,,,
15 ..16 Jun,ComRes/Sunday Mirror Independent on Sunday,2046,34,29,19,8,5,4,2,5
11 ..14 Jun,Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard,1257,35,34,10,9,5,4,3,1,
10 ..13 Jun,ICM/The Guardian,2001,34,30,19,8,4,4,1,4,
10 ..13 Jun,ICM/The Guardian,1000,34,33,14,9,4,5,2,1,
7 ..10 Jun,Opinium/Observer,2009,35,32,18,4,5,4,1,3,
31 May ..3 Jun,Opinium/Observer,2007,34,30,18,6,6,4,2,4,
27 ..29 May,ICM/The Guardian,2052,36,31,17,7,4,4,2,5,
27 ..29 May,ICM/The Guardian,1004,36,32,15,7,4,3,2,4,
17 ..19 May,Opinium/Observer,2008,35,30,18,5,6,5,2,5,
14 ..16 May,Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard,1002,36,34,10,8,5,5,2,2,
13 ..15 May,ICM/The Guardian,1002,36,34,13,7,4,4,2,2,
13 ..15 May,ICM/The Guardian,2048,34,32,17,7,5,4,1,2,
11 ..12 May,ComRes/Sunday Mirror Independent on Sunday,2043,36,30,17,8,5,4,-,6
05-May,United Kingdom local elections, 2016 as well as Ogmore and Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough by-elections,,,,,,,,,,
26 ..29 Apr,Opinium/Observer,2005,38,30,15,5,5,5,2,8,
25 ..26 Apr,YouGov/The Times,1650,30,33,20,6,8,3,-,3,
22 ..26 Apr,BMG Research,1375,33,32,18,6,5,4,2,1,
16 ..18 Apr,Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard,1026,38,35,11,6,6,3,1,3,
15 ..17 Apr,ICM/The Guardian,1003,38,33,13,7,5,3,1,5,
15 ..17 Apr,ICM/The Guardian,2008,36,31,16,7,4,4,2,5,
13 ..14 Apr,ComRes/Sunday Mirror Independent on Sunday,2036,35,30,16,8,5,4,1,5
11 ..12 Apr,YouGov/The Times,1639,31,34,17,8,7,3,-,3,
29 Mar ..1 Apr,Opinium/Observer,1966,33,32,17,5,6,4,2,1,
24 ..29 Mar,BMG Research,1298,36,31,16,7,5,5,2,5,
19 ..22 Mar,Ipsos MORI,1023,36,34,11,10,5,3,2,2,
18 ..20 Mar,ComRes/Daily Mail,1002,37,35,9,7,5,4,2,2,
16 ..17 Mar,YouGov/The Times,1691,33,34,16,6,6,3,2,1,
16-Mar,George Osborne delivers the 2016 United Kingdom budget,,,,,,,,,,,
11 ..13 Mar,ICM/The Guardian,1001,36,36,11,8,3,3,1,0,
9 ..10 Mar,ComRes/Sunday Mirror Independent on Sunday,2059,38,29,16,7,4,4,1,9
21 ..23 Feb,YouGov/The Times,3482,37,30,16,8,6,3,-,7,
17 ..23 Feb,BMG Research,1268,38,30,16,5,5,5,2,8,
19 ..22 Feb,ComRes/Daily Mail,1000,38,31,12,8,4,3,3,7,
13 ..16 Feb,Ipsos MORI,1001,39,33,12,6,6,3,2,6,
12 ..14 Feb,ICM/The Guardian,1004,39,32,11,7,4,4,3,7,
10 ..12 Feb,ComRes/Sunday Mirror Independent on Sunday,2018,41,27,15,9,5,3,1,14
3 ..4 Feb,YouGov/The Times,1675,39,29,18,6,4,3,1,10,
27 ..28 Jan,YouGov,1735,39,30,17,6,4,3,1,9,
23 ..25 Jan,Ipsos MORI,1027,40,31,11,7,5,4,1,9,
22 ..24 Jan,ComRes/Daily Mail,1006,37,32,12,6,4,4,4,5,
15 ..17 Jan,ICM/The Guardian,1001,40,35,10,6,4,3,2,5,
15 ..16 Jan,Survation/Mail on Sunday,1017,37,30,16,7,5,3,3,7,
13 ..15 Jan,ComRes/Sunday Mirror Independent on Sunday,2004,40,29,16,7,4,3,1,11
8 ..14 Jan,Panelbase/Sunday Times,2087,39,31,14,6,5,5,-,8,
18 ..20 Dec,ICM/The Guardian,1003,39,34,10,7,4,3,3,5,
17 ..18 Dec,YouGov/The Times,1598,39,29,17,6,5,3,1,10,
15 ..18 Dec,Opinium/Observer,1936,38,30,16,5,6,5,2,8,
12 ..14 Dec,Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard,1040,38,31,9,9,5,6,2,7,
11 ..13 Dec,ComRes/Daily Mail,1001,37,33,11,7,4,5,2,4,
9 ..11 Dec,ComRes/Independent on Sunday Sunday Mirror,2049,40,29,16,7,4,3,1,11
03-Dec,Oldham West and Royton by-election,,,,,,,,,,,
30 Nov ..1 Dec,YouGov/The Times,1657,41,30,16,6,4,3,1,11,
20 ..24 Nov,YouGov,4317,38,29,17,6,5,3,1,9,
20 ..22 Nov,ComRes/Daily Mail,1000,40,29,11,8,4,3,4,11,
18 ..20 Nov,ComRes/Independent on Sunday Sunday Mirror,2067,42,27,15,7,5,3,1,15
16 ..17 Nov,Survation/Leave.EU[b],1546,37,30,16,6,5,3,3,7,
14 ..17 Nov,Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard,1021,41,34,7,7,6,4,-,7,
11 ..17 Nov,BMG Research,1334,37,30,15,7,4,4,2,7,
13 ..15 Nov,ICM/The Guardian,1006,39,33,12,7,5,3,1,6,
9 ..11 Nov,Survation/Leave.EU[b],2007,36,30,15,7,5,3,3,6,
22 ..27 Oct,BMG Research,1467,37,31,15,6,4,5,2,6,
23 ..25 Oct,ComRes/Daily Mail,1002,38,33,10,8,3,3,4,5,
17 ..19 Oct,Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard,1021,36,32,12,10,5,3,2,4,
13 ..16 Oct,Opinium,1934,37,32,15,5,6,4,2,5,
14 ..15 Oct,ComRes/Independent on Sunday Sunday Mirror,2051,42,29,13,7,5,3,1,13
9 ..11 Oct,ICM/The Guardian,1002,38,34,11,7,5,3,3,4,
29 ..30 Sep,YouGov/The Sun,2064,37,31,17,7,5,2,1,6,
26 ..28 Sep,ComRes/Daily Mail,1009,39,30,12,9,4,4,3,9,
21 ..22 Sep,Survation/Huffington Post,108,37,32,13,9,5,3,1,5,
19 ..22 Sep,Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard,1255,39,34,7,9,5,4,1,5,
17 ..18 Sep,YouGov/Sunday Times,1601,39,31,16,6,5,3,1,8,
15 ..18 Sep,Opinium,1942,37,32,14,6,5,4,1,5,
16 ..17 Sep,ComRes/Independent on Sunday Sunday Mirror,2015,42,30,13,7,5,3,1,12
11 ..13 Sep,ICM/The Guardian,1006,38,32,13,8,5,3,2,6,
12-Sep,Jeremy Corbyn is elected leader of the Labour Party and appointed Leader of the Opposition,,,,,,,,,,,
3 ..4 Sep,Survation/Mail on Sunday,1004,38,32,13,6,5,4,2,6,
21 ..23 Aug,ComRes/Daily Mail,1001,42,28,9,8,5,6,3,14,
12 ..13 Aug,ComRes/Independent on Sunday Sunday Mirror,2035,40,29,13,8,5,4,1,11
12 ..13 Aug,Survation/TSSA,1007,38,33,15,6,5,3,1,5,
7 ..9 Aug,ICM/The Guardian,1000,40,31,10,7,5,4,2,9,
24 ..26 Jul,ComRes/Daily Mail001,1,40,28,10,7,5,5,4,12,
18 ..20 Jul,Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard,1026,37,31,9,10,5,8,1,6,
16-Jul,Tim Farron is elected leader of the Liberal Democrats,,,,,,,,,,,
10 ..12 Jul,ICM/The Guardian,1005,38,34,13,6,4,4,1,4,
26 ..28 Jun,ComRes/Daily Mail,1002,39,27,11,9,5,6,3,12,
14 ..16 Jun,Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard,1005,39,30,8,9,5,6,2,9,
12 ..14 Jun,ICM/The Guardian,1004,37,31,13,8,5,5,1,6,
29 ..31 May,ComRes/Daily Mail,1000,41,29,10,8,5,5,3,12,
25 ..26 May,YouGov/The Sun,1709,41,30,13,7,4,4,1,11,
8 ..9 May,Survation/Mail on Sunday,1027,40,31,12,6,5,3,2,9,
07-May,General Election results (GB only),29980107,37.8,31.2,12.9,8.1,4.9,3.8,1.4,6.6

Interestingly or not
I used this to calculate the correlation between 3 groups, Labour and the Whigs, Tories and the Kippers and Labour and the Tories.
Lib\Lab 0.019211
CON\UKIP -0.49259
Lab\Con -0.34753
The result is that over the past 15 months there is a very weak correlation between Labour and the Libs polling but a strong one with the Labour Conservative and a stronger one (significantly so) between the Tories and the Kippers.

In and off itself it says nothing as it is likely to be picking up a lot of noise from sample and methodology biases but it does seem to indicate the Tories rise and fall with UKIPs popularity more than anything else while Labour are not yet shipping votes to the Whig dems at a significant rate..... perhaps.... caveat emptor and all that good shit.
/nerdgasm over.

edited for links and clarity
 
https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/2016_july_vote_poll-3.pdf

Conservative 43% (+4)

Labour 27% (-2)

UKIP 13% (-1)

Liberal Democrat 8% (-1)

SNP 4% (nc)

Green 4% (nc)

Plaid Cymru 1% (nc)

Other *% (-1)
Click to expand...
12% lead for the Tories, taking points of everyone so much more likely a May bounce than anything else.

29% of those classed as Social Class DE say they will vote Labour, 7% wont vote and 22% dont know.

The tories are ahead of Labour in in every region of Great Britain (polling excludes NI) but in Scotland they are far distant to the Nats. The Nats seem to be down vote share since the GE but I think thats likely sample bias. For all we hear about the kippers and the North they are strongest in the midlands and Wales, though I suspect London shifts things slightly in the South.

Comparing with this from December Labour seem to have lost the biggest ground in the North(41%-24%) and Midlands (39% to 18%)and with age tranches 45-65 and 35-44 (they ganged the groupings on that so I might be wrong). In social class C1 they have dropped 35%-20%.

https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/OmICM-Dec15_BPC.pdf

Its only one poll and all caveats apply. You can invent you own explanation as to why, one that likely validates your currently existing views but from where I am looking it looks like Labour are losing in the key swing demographics (mid life, C1\C2, Midlandsish) From memory I recall a few polls where the middle age groups of about 35-55 were pretty strong for Labour in the last election, well in the polling before hand.

Its is my very strong view that much will change in the coming months once Mays new warm glow fades and if a recession emerges. And especially as the Brexit negotiations roll on and the kipper tendency feels shafted. But the more you dig into those numbers the less good it looks.
 
ferrelhadley said:
Its is my very strong view that much will change in the coming months once Mays new warm glow fades and if a recession emerges. And especially as the Brexit negotiations roll on and the kipper tendency feels shafted. But the more you dig into those numbers the less good it looks.
Click to expand...

Yeah, the poll tracker graph would suggest a fair degree of negative correlation between the tory and 'kipper numbers.

 
brogdale said:
Yeah, the poll tracker graph would suggest a fair degree of negative correlation between the tory and 'kipper numbers.

Click to expand...


so key change is ukip tories returning home now they have an anti-EU cabinet, and mission accomplished.

anyone remember what happened in March to cause the labour bump - Cam's offshore scandal?

looks like m/c labour liberals also drifting back to their natural home after Brexit/ labour infighting. bye then.
 
where to said:
looks like m/c labour liberals also drifting back to their natural home after Brexit/ labour infighting. bye then.
Click to expand...
Because Labour has so many voters it can afford to lose them to make internet people feel good about themselves.

And as you failed to read what I wrote earlier the Lab\Con movement is also reasonably positively correlated over the past 15 months. Given its poor showing in 2015 Labour cannot afford to lose votes to the Tories and Liberal Democrats in 2020 and still hope to pick up marginals.
 
ferrelhadley said:
Because Labour has so many voters it can afford to lose them to make internet people feel good about themselves.

And as you failed to read what I wrote earlier the Lab\Con movement is also reasonably positively correlated over the past 15 months. Given its poor showing in 2015 Labour cannot afford to lose votes to the Tories and Liberal Democrats in 2020 and still hope to pick up marginals.
Click to expand...
I don't think you mean positive correlation?
 
kabbes said:
Dangerous if the Tory UKIPpers return home but the Labour ones do not.
Click to expand...
True, but the 'stickiness' of that trend should diminish as it dawns on the leavists that the tories ain't going to give them what they voted for.
 
It's become abundantly clear that the govt can't deliver what was voted for without destroying the British economy: whatever way they end up trying to go - in, out or unworkable fudge - we can expect significant volatility as far as the UKIP vote is concerned.
 
I think as the realities of hard brexit start to hit home the political illiterates who voted for it, will blame the Tories for failing to carry out an impossible task and if UKIP have elected a half way appealing leader will drift back to them, if not they will float around looking for someone to support.

It's impossible to imagine them returning to Labour while the indignant continue to wage guerilla war on the incompetent (the indignant and incompetent being interchangeable).
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Veronika94
What's happened to classic,old-fashioned political scandals?
Replies
27
Views
967
tim
tim
quimcunx
  • Poll
What is your polling station usually?
2 3
Replies
60
Views
2K
ska invita
ska invita
Pickman's model
yvette cooper's pitiful politics
Replies
0
Views
195
Pickman's model
Pickman's model
N
Ever had a negative reaction to a political T-shirt?
2 3 4 5 6
Replies
163
Views
8K
Chz
Chz
Silas Loom
Practical republican politics
2
Replies
59
Views
2K
Silas Loom
Silas Loom
Back
Top Bottom