Political polling

[brogdale]

I don't know what the socio-economic groupings mean, but I'm in none of the other groups of leavers.

Male? (102)

 

[Red O]

 

[brogdale]

And just to clear matters up for the evening....

 

[Wilf]

Yougov have leave back in the lead which, I'll be honest, I didn't expect

YouGov | EU referendum: Leave lead at two

 

[J Ed]

This is from a 13-14th June but interesting

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.ne...3g4e5e0e/LBCResults_160614_EUReferendum_W.pdf

46% of Leave voters believe that the polls will be rigged

 

[brogdale]

Dunno if it's rigged or not, but....

 

[brogdale]

Some evidence of expected late swing to status quo?

 

[brogdale]

and...

 

[brogdale]

60R : 40L still on, then.

 

[chilango]

60R : 40L still on, then.

Yep.

The first poll didn't even include the don't knows, dunno about the second.

Media hyping it as too close to call, but that's not exactly a surprise is it?

 

[chilango]

Ah, from your second poll:

After don’t knows are accounted for, Remain would lead 54% to 46%

 

[redsquirrel]

60R : 40L still on, then.

Really fucking hope not, I've never thought Leave would win but losing by that margin is just a huge victory for capital. The starting gun for another round of attacks. That said I still think 55-45 is more likely.

 

[Dogsauce]

My gut feeling is still that Leave will take it with a decent margin (53:47) - they have a broad demographic of motivated supporters, few voting remain actually have that much enthusiasm for doing so. They've got their message through, deceitful as it is. I don't think remain has been sold well, it's just been a parade of bankers and bosses going on about the economy - something that to most people will be abstract. They'd have done better highlighting free movement, consumer rights and so on - things that people can understand and see themselves benefitting from. It just feels exactly like the sort of campaign the Tory party would run at a general election - we can't let Labour ruin the economy etc. - perhaps because that is who is running the show.

 

[killer b]

The economy isn't abstract at all. It's what wins elections.

 

[Plumdaff]

People being shit scared of the economy going tits up is a huge factor for Remain. Il est l'economie stupide

 

[Wilf]

I've always assumed the polls are overstating leave, for the usual/obvious reasons (leave as the vehicle for protest votes which might not become actual votes on the day; remain as the status quo position - allied with 'project fear' beginning to have some effect). Must admit I did expect remain to have had a clearer lead this week, with the impact of the murder - they've had the best of the polls, but it hasn't been unanimous. Same time, as they've been suggesting on the news, the bookies probably have a better sense of it than the pollsters. I'd expect something like - fuck knows - 55-45, or even wider. Enough for remain to have got away with it and enough to stop leave mounting any kind of campaign for a re-run in the next decade.

 

[kabbes]

This all still holds, and the leave camp have done nothing to address it.

The closer the polls get to eachother, the more DKs will come out and vote remain, and the more that shaky exits will vote remain.

Voting exit or abstaining when you are sure it makes no difference is one thing. Doing it when the vote is tight suddenly opens up the possibility of a scary-sounding exit for real, not just in theory.

There's a reason that the status quo almost always wins referenda. People don't like change. To go along with change they need three things:

1) Dissatisfaction with the status quo
2) A clear vision of what things will be like post-change
3) A clear roadmap of how they get from here to there

The exit camp are concentrating on 1 and neglecting 2 and 3. In the end, this is what will lose it for them.

The vote will always be *quite* close because if remain is looking like a steamroller, people will feel brave enough to vote for exit. But I also predict that the remain vote will end up in the low-60s as a result of these underlying issues.

The economy is always the primary thing that drives the population in the closed ballot booth, where nobody can see our selfish, scared, short-term choices. People are entirely understandably worried about their world collapsing around them. It's easy to be declamatory and principled when making arguments but when decision time hits and the X has to go into the box, it all gets very real. This referendum is no different.

Of course, I am wrong a lot when I make predictions about elections, so you should bear that in mind

 

[brogdale]

Last (52%R) EURef poll released from IpsosMORI coincided with another rise in sterling...

 

[brogdale]

And Populus' 10-pointer won't have harmed that perception.

 

[Wilf]

And Populus' 10-pointer won't have harmed that perception.

The scale of the lead has led some polling experts to say that a Remain result is now highly likely

No shit!

 

[chilango]

Remember the General Election when the exit poll came in for a clear Tory win and minutes into the coverage everybody was stumped as result after result confirmed it and confounded expectations.

It'll be similar tonight.

It'll be clear pretty quickly that Remain will walk it and it'll be done and dusted pretty much in the early hours.

+60% Remain vs -40% Leave

 

[J Ed]

Remember the General Election when the exit poll came in for a clear Tory win and minutes into the coverage everybody was stumped as result after result confirmed it and confounded expectations.

It'll be similar tonight.

It'll be clear pretty quickly that Remain will walk it and it'll be done and dusted pretty much in the early hours.

+60% Remain vs -40% Leave

I am starting to come round to this view myself.

 

[brogdale]

Remember the General Election when the exit poll came in for a clear Tory win and minutes into the coverage everybody was stumped as result after result confirmed it and confounded expectations.

It'll be similar tonight.

It'll be clear pretty quickly that Remain will walk it and it'll be done and dusted pretty much in the early hours.

+60% Remain vs -40% Leave

-40%...that's a bad result!

 

[chilango]

Plus being wildly overconfident in predicting the result is the only way I'm wringing any fun out of this.

 

[J Ed]

I don't think it's going to be 60/40 but it's going to be at least 55%+ Remain imo

 

[brogdale]

One way or another, there will be egg on face for some...

 

[brogdale]

FWIW, ( and that's not much at all!), for the GE ComRes were the most accurate of the final polls.

 

[laptop]

This is from a 13-14th June but interesting

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.ne...3g4e5e0e/LBCResults_160614_EUReferendum_W.pdf

46% of Leave voters believe that the polls will be rigged

That "pencil" meme... Who knew there were so many tinfoilers?

 

[brogdale]

 

[mk12]

So, again, the polls were wrong.